The Celtics have taken it easy the past couple of days taking full advantage of the time to rest and recharge. They took a day to get off their feet on Wednesday and Thursday was mostly film, treatment, and optional shooting for the team before they get back to full practice tomorrow. Joe Mazzulla was the only Celtic to speak to the media, and he said a few interesting things.
He gave a quick update on Kristaps Porzingis, saying “I know he’s getting better each day, I know he’s working hard. So I’ll get more when I go downstairs when he comes in today, but he’s progressing well and he’s working really hard to get back.”
In a recent radio appearance, Mazzulla said Porzingis is ramping it up on the court and on Thursday he said Porzingis hasn’t suffered any setbacks, Porzingis himself sent out a tweet in Latvian that, translated by X, said in part “I'll be back in line soon. See you in the Finals.” Porzingis seems to be on pace for a return relatively soon, possibly as soon as Game 1.
Porzingis’ absence and its impact on the Celtics has been under-discussed through the first three rounds. While a lot of focus has been on Boston’s choppy play against teams missing star players, there has been little consideration paid to the absence of Porzingis.
I'm guilty of it too. The Celtics are still very good without him and, as I’ve said since the injury, the Celtics were very capable of winning without him. But instead of some level of understanding that Boston might not play the same way without Porzingis as an outlet and a rim protector, the impact of his injury has been largely ignored.
Remember, Porzingis has been both an offensive outlet and a rim protector all year long. Jayson Tatum found Porzingis for 77 assists during the regular season, his top target. That led to 184 points, the second-most points generated from one Celtics teammate to another (The 84 assists from Derrick White to Jaylen Brown generated 194 points).
Porzingis was also Brown’s number-one target, leading to 64 assists and 153 points. He was second on Jrue Holiday’s list, connecting for 60 assists and 143 points. He was third for White, connecting 71 times for 161 points. Overall, 14% of Boston’s assists were converted by Porzingis in the regular season. That's a literal and figurative big target for the Celtics to be missing.
He also hit Brown and White 29 times each, Tatum 22 times, and Holiday 11 during the regular season, allowing the Celtics to use him as an offensive hub from time to time.
On the defensive end in the regular season, opponents hit 64% in the restricted area against the Celtics. During the playoffs, it’s up to 70.5%. Opponents shot 60.4% against Porzingis in the restricted area which was a tiny bit better than Rudy Gobert during the regular season.
The impact Porzingis makes on the Celtics is the five-to-10 plays where he serves as an outlet on offense to keep the defense honest and as a deterrent on the other end to prevent a basket. What Porzings can do for a game is add two or three baskets to the offense and prevent two or three baskets on defense. Suddenly, Boston’s late single-digit leads are in the teens and a 10-point lead could be up to 20.
“There's three or four possessions that can completely change the narrative,” Joe Mazzulla said. “Everybody always forgets about the five to 10 plays that can really have an impact … when you win everybody always credits you and when you lose everybody always blames you. In reality, it’s like 10 possessions that separates you and some of those that have to go your way.”
That's the impact of Porzingis. Those 10 possessions are much more likely to go your way when he’s in the game. It doesn’t mean that they don’t when he’s not, but you feel better about those breaks when he’s there. He smooths a lot of the jagged Celtics edges.
The Celtics specifically got Porzingis to be that kind of player for Boston. He’s here because Tatum and Brown needed an outlet, and not just one like Al Horford who spaced out to the 3-point line.
Porzingis provides a mid-range outlet in the soft spots of defenses, forcing them to pay attention to an area they’ll normally abandon.
(via StatMuse)
The absence of Porzingis has been noticeable. Yes, Boston’s road to the Finals has been easier than most, but they’ve done it without their starting center and a key player on both ends brought in specifically to make these moments easier for Boston. They've done it without an outlet that makes life easier for their two best players. For some reason, the discourse around the Celtics hasn't included much of how losing Porzingis changed things for Boston. But if he can be his usual self when he returns, you can bet he'll be a big topic of conversation pretty soon.
