More than a few thoughts while we contemplate how Jim Montgomery is going to handle his goaltender situation, and the 87 mph big meatball down the middle for sports talk radio:
1. Are the JJ McCarthy rumors with the Patriots legit?
Well, I'll say this ... they at least want them out there. The Patriots will tell anyone who will listen that they think McCarthy is worth the third overall pick. I certainly have my doubts and think it's at least an attempt at a smokescreen, but the essential question is which team is it aimed at?
Has to be Minnesota. I could very much see the Vikings feeling that they liked the Kirk Cousins experience, but not the price tag. I see McCarthy and Cousins as very similar, and McCarthy has a little more upside with his athletic ability. But Kevin O'Connell might also want Drake Maye.
2. Would the Patriots trade the pick?
The chances are very low but let's play this out for a minute. The only way I would do it if I were Eliot Wolf is if I had pre-arranged a three-way trade, or at least the bones of one to make sure I got at least McCarthy, and hopefully acquired an extra pick along the way.
Like...
New England sends #3 (2200 points on the Rich Hill chart) to the Vikings for:
11 (1250)
23 (760)
2025 first-round pick (500)
2025 third-round pick (100)
New England then sends:
11 and Minnesota's 2025 first-round pick to Cardinals for #4 (1800 points) to select Maye or McCarthy (depending on what the Vikings do).
Patriots would still have:
4. Maye or McCarthy
23. Offensive tackle
34. Wide receiver
68. Tight end
Their own first-round pick in 2025.
Something like that is the only way I would entertain trading down. You have to have it worked out that you get back to 4, 5, or 6 to get the quarterback, if the Patriots really believe McCarthy is worth a top-five pick. We'll see on Thursday what they really believe.
3. The other possibility in the trade-down scenario is taking one of the top WRs in a trade up, taking Penix later.
Again, I don't think they're trading down.
4. My personal QB rankings, at the moment, for the Patriots (I'm not ready to completely pull the trigger but I will this week):
1. Caleb Williams
2a. Drake Maye
2b. Jayden Daniels
4. JJ McCarthy (sorry, I left him out by mistake)
5. Michael Penix
That's it.
Backup types
4. Spencer Rattler (much later just to upgrade over Bailey Zappe)
5. Jordan Travis (as future bet with the injury)
6. Michael Pratt, Tulane
7. Devin Leary, Kentucky
8. Carter Bradley, South Alabama
5. Why have I swapped Maye and Daniels?
For one, I think Maye is better built for New England, but I can tell you the Patriots have zero weather concerns about Daniels.
The biggest thing for me is Daniels' running isn't special as far as being elusive/escaping, like a Lamar Jackson. If you give Daniels an opening, he will certainly take it and his speed is real. But there's a lot of film where he thinks he can escape and he doesn't - and that will show up a lot more in the pros. If he was more quick-twitch like Jackson, it would be a no-brainer because Daniels is the far superior passer to Jackson. Daniels is more of a straight-line runner. Worked well in college. Won't in the pros.
Maye has a lot of issues that need work, and he's a bit on the immature side, but the team that is patient and teaches him well, maybe for an entire season, could have something really special on their hands.
Make no mistake: Daniels will hit quicker, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was offensive rookie of the year.
6. Bob McGinn's draft writeups at Go Long! are always worth the price of admission. Some of the more interesting quotes from personnel executives on each QB in the mix to the Patriots.
2. Daniels (62 points in the 1-5 vote; Williams had 75): “Athletic freak,” another scout said. “Still going to have to learn the nuances of an NFL defense and read coverages a little bit better. He was surrounded by really good, skilled athletes at receiver. The question is, can he overcome that? ... “I just didn’t see consistency from a condensed pocket,” one scout said. “When it’s clean, he’s really good. He has rhythm and had really good playmakers on the outside. But in gotta-have-it, pressure situations, when it looked more like an NFL game, I thought his accuracy declined. I’m somewhat nitpicking. At the college level, you can see an off-placement throw and it’s a catch. At our level, some of those limitations are magnified. I thought he’d struggle a little bit playing with a lot more (pressure) in the pocket.”
3. Maye (45): “Andrew Luck was further along than Drake Maye but the talent level is somewhat similar,” said one scout. “His pro day was really good. He throws a great deep ball for a guy that’s not supposed to have an elite arm. His accuracy and touch are his secret sauce. That’s what he’s really good at.” ... "He walked in the room and he sounded like Jethro Bodine on the Beverly Hillbillies. We just went, ‘Who is this guy?’ Watching the tape, all this animation. This kid is sort of wound tight trying to be something he’s not … I thought his tape was kind of average, to be honest. He needs a year to just sit, and I don’t know if the teams that are going to take him can do that. I think it’s going to be real hard. He is not explosive with his arm. He’s a good athlete, but you see very few plays where he just rips the ball into a tight window." ... “He’s got all the physical tools,” a fifth scout said. “Sometimes there’s some wiring … there’s some Daniel Jones in there. Sometimes when it gets a little hairy, what’s he wired like?”
4. McCarthy (33): “He’s got major weaknesses but there’s something about that kid that is absolutely special,” one scout said. “He completely changed that rivalry (Ohio State-Michigan). He singlehandedly won both of those games. The one in Columbus (in 2022), people don’t realize some of those throws he made in that game. Then his ability to never get off the field and extend plays is uncanny. All this talk that Michigan built him and it was (Jim) Harbaugh and the O-line. Their O-line sucked this year … The 9-inch hand and the way he throws the ball really scares me. It’s one speed. He has no ability to layer balls in between defenders. Everything’s a fastball. His deep balls are line drives, which is very unfriendly to receivers especially when he gets to this level and it’s contested and not just wide open. But there’s magic." ... "He’s got a strong arm. But everything about this guy is development. He won’t make as big an impact maybe as the three above him at first but he can overtake Caleb Williams and Maye. If you play for Jim Harbaugh and win a national championship, you’re good.” ... “He has championed the mental health stuff,” said a fifth scout. “But in the NFL, those fans aren’t going to be the same. You’re going to do that at Arrowhead? Foxborough? Those fans are going to destroy this poor kid if he’s out there sitting under the goal post an hour and a half before the game. It’s part of his resume."
2. Daniels: "If I was picking, I would pick Jayden Daniels No. 1," an AFC scout said. "Better athlete. I think he loves football more. I believe that he's just a better f---ing player. And I think he's on the rise and Caleb's kind of going lateral." ... "This is like a poor man's Lamar (Jackson), to me," an AFC executive said. "The biggest thing I always worried about is [Daniels is] f---ing skinny. He didn't take a picture at the combine, he didn't weigh in at the combine -- that's all by f---ing design. He knows he's f---ing skinny. You worry about him getting hurt. But because of his athleticism, he's got a chance.
3. Maye: "There's a lot of that on film: bad pocket awareness, there's some bad plays. But he's just a big athlete that can really throw it. To me, he's perfect for New England (which holds the No. 3 pick) because they've got Jacoby (Brissett). I think he'd be perfect there to sit for a year. He is the biggest high-ceiling, low-floor guy. Because he's immature. Not bad immature -- he's just like a kid."
4. McCarthy: "He uses his whole body to throw the ball. My shoulder hurts watching him throw a football," an AFC assistant coach said. "Everything is a fastball. He's not accurate. Even on completed passes, shorter throws, he slows his guys down. It takes away some yards after catch. There's a lot of bad decisions. And they don't throw the ball. They took the ball out of his hands consistently in pretty decent moments. Harbaugh can say whatever the f--- he wants, but if he really, truly felt that way about McCarthy, he would've thrown the ball a lot more. And the proof of it is he did it with Andrew Luck."
8. What do I think the Patriots' QB rankings are at the moment?
Daniels
Maye
McCarthy
9. I've said it all offseason and I will continue to say it ... the Patriots are in the market to trade for a WR1, with the AJ Brown rumors the latest example.
They will stay on that unless, in a trade-down, they go with the WR first. I don't totally rule that out.
10. Congrats to Matthew Slater for continuing on with the Patriots in a full-time capacity as Mayo's right-hand man, as reported first by Mike Reiss. Not a big surprise considering that back in 2019, when we started Slater Retirement Watch (idiot), he was extremely enthusiastic about the thought of staying on as a character coach.
"I think it’s no mystery to anyone around here that I want to be involved in ministry and I love relationships, dealing with people and sharing with them what I believe to be the secret to life, which is the gospel, the good news of Christ," Slater told BostonSportsJournal.com. "Something like that definitely would appeal to me. But I try not to think about it too much. I’m just trying to live in the moment and maximize my opportunities as long as I can."
