I am deep in draft mode. I dream about the Washington Huskies offense. I listen to interviews of all the top QB prospects while walking my rescue dog (he's growing on me, but we aren't there yet). I think of a potential draftee and then feel compelled to find clips or full games to watch. It's part pathetic and part awesome because I love football, I love talking about football, and I love learning about this group and how they see the game and the players that play it.
All that is a long way of saying that, as of this moment, I'm unconcerned about the start of the Patriots' OTAs. It's the conditioning phase, for goodness sake, and with Trent Brown no longer on the roster, I'm not too worried about anyone showing up weighing 400 pounds (and to the best of my knowledge, no one has a weight clause written in their contract, or bonuses for being at the right weight). Phase two doesn't matter to me much unless attendance is pathetic (and it won't be). Peer pressure is real, and it's spectacular.
As for all the friendly chatter about the new regime, that's all fine and dandy, but at this juncture, they're not being coached, so any talk about Jerod Mayo and his staff is incredibly premature. We'll get a better feel at the mandatory mini-camp June 11-13 and even more once training camp kicks off.
All that said, one quote did jump out to me. It wasn't unexpected, but based on how down Hunter Henry was at the end of the year, I did have real questions about him returning. The veteran tight end never made it to the open market, getting $16 million guaranteed to remain in Foxborough. Why did he sign so quickly (besides the money)?
"I wanted to be here," he said. "I love this locker room. I love this area. I love this fan base. I love this organization. I wanted to be a part of this. I didn't like how last year went, didn't like how the last two years have been, and wanted to be a part of that change."
While there is no adversity during this part of the calendar, that's a tone-setting statement you want from one of this group's leaders. The hope is that the rest of the room feels the same way, and this week is the beginning of the journey to return to respectability.
BUCKLE UP
The Vikings aren't playing around. They already acquired a second first-round in this year's draft and have made it clear to anyone who will listen that they want a quarterback.
My understanding is that they've had conversations with everyone from Washington at #2 to Atlanta at #8, and those teams all know Minnesota's aim, if not the actual target.
With Sam Darnold on a one-year bridge deal, turnover machine Nick Mullens, and project Jaren Hall as the only signal callers under contract, the Vikes have a blank slate for head coach and play-caller Kevin O'Connell to mold. O'Connell was pretty open with us at the league meetings a couple of weeks back, and on Thursday, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah dropped this gem: "Just because something is risky doesn't mean you have to stay away from it."
Does that mean they are willing to hand over the bag? Adofo-Mensah wasn't getting into specifics, but it sure feels like the Vikings' initial hopes of moving up without including next year's first-rounder were met with "call me back when you get serious" from other GMs.
Recent history shows that these trades happened before day one of the draft. Carolina and San Francisco made their dramatic moves up the board in March, the Panthers for Bryce Young and the Niners for Trey Lance. And it was those trades that raised the price of maneuvering for QBs.
Young cost Carolina two firsts, a second, and D.J. Moore to move from #9 to #1. Lance required three first-rounders and a third from San Fran. to go from #12 to #3.
ENDANGERED SPECIES?
On the first day of free agency, just about any running back worth a damn came flying off the board. Initially, the feeling was, "Are these guys being valued again?" Ummm, no. The reality was the market for running backs remains depressed or suppressed (depending on how you feel about collusion). Even the big deals, when first reported, turned out to be less than or considerably less than.
As one agent said to me, "It was simply grab the best deal as quickly as possible. If your player didn't sign it right away, they (the teams) would move on to the next one on their list. I thought Saquon (Barkley) was the one back who had some clout and used it. He, D'Andre (Swift), and Tony (Pollard) did a smart business."
To the agent's point, Barkley got $26 million guaranteed, Swift managed $15.3 million (surprise, surprise), and Pollard negotiated $10.49 million. Josh Jacobs, another "big" free agent, signed a four-year deal for $48 million with Green Bay, but only $12.5 million is guaranteed, meaning he's essentially playing on a one-year contract.
Barkley's deal mirrored the one signed by Nick Chubb three years ago. When you consider the salary cap has increased by $70 million during that period — and that Barkley had multiple teams to negotiate with versus Chubb, who signed his extension while still under contract with Cleveland — how can you not conclude that mamas shouldn't be letting their elite athletes grow up to the running backs?
That leads me to my next point: the 2024 draft class is subpar. For the second time in four years (2021, Breece Hall went 36th overall to the Jets), a runner won't be taken in the first round. It's not entirely inconceivable that the first back hears his name called in round three (another reason why backs were "in demand" in free agency).
Jonathon Brooks of Texas (coming off a torn ACL) is generally considered the best of the bunch, but the consensus on where he lands is in the back half of the second round or into the third. At that point, Brooks and a few of his brethren are being so undervalued that they may be value picks.
Might the Patriots dabble in the position during day three of the draft? While they addressed the position in March, signing Antonio Gibson to a three-year contract (an out after year one), lead back Rhamondre Stevenson is entering the final year of his rookie contract, and Kevin Harris has yet to prove he's got a long-term future here (or elsewhere). So, it would make sense to throw a dart, but at whom?
Audric Estime comes to mind. The Notre Dame junior looked stuck in the mud at the combine, running a 4.71 40. But three weeks later, at the Fighting Irish's pro day, he was clocked at 4.58, which more accurately reflects the speed of his game tape.
"He's an ox," one college scout told me.
Yet, despite being 222 pounds, Estime runs "lighter than that" when necessary because of his vision and cut-ability.
"He can be someone's first and second down back," the scout concluded while adding Estime's "got a long way to go" if he's to remain on the field in obvious passing situations.
Another back who might fit the bill is Will Shipley of Clemson. If this were the old regime, Shipley would be a lock to be overdrafted by the Pats because he's a former standout lacrosse player. But even this current group should like him as competition for Gibson on third downs.
His RAS (Relative Athletic Score) buried the player I drew comparisons to while watching him play, former Pats' standout James White. Faster 10-and-20-yard splits, a better 40 (4.45 to 4.57 for White), an explosive vertical (38.5 to 32), and better broad, shuttle, and three-cone times, all while playing at about the same weight (Shipley at 206, White at 204).
"I am the number one all-purpose back in this draft," said Shipley at the combine. With over 4,000 total yards and 33 touchdowns during his three years at Clemson, the man may have a point.
"He makes people miss and knows how to set up or use his blockers," said an assistant coach whose team is in the market for a back. "He's not the guy, but he can be a guy in a rotation."
Shipley also does work as a returner.
There are others worthy of mention, such as Dylan Laube from UNH, Kimani Vidal of Marshall, and Boise State's George Holani, but I'll highlight one last player, Tyrone Tracy Jr. He is one of my favorite day-three guys. He's a six-year college player (24.5 years old), spending four years at Iowa before portalling to Purdue. He started as a wide receiver but transitioned to running back in his final season, leading the Boilermakers in rushing while also returning a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown.
"Because of the lack of experience as a back, he's got some work to do there, but man, there are some exciting moments on tape that make you think he could blossom in a year," said the assistant coach. "He's just so damn shifty. I like him."
THE JEFFERSONS
Beyond the QB-hungry teams making calls about moving on up, I've heard of two other teams considering making a decent leap up the board — the Bills, who pick 28th in round one, and the Lions, who pick one slot later.
The Bills' need is obvious. They are wide receiver deficient in a draft that has three highly regarded prospects at the top — Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze — as well as Brian Thomas, who is in his own tier (he could be a #1, but he's not there yet). A move like that will almost certainly require next year's one, and Buffalo lacks a third-rounder (they have a pair of fourths). It's bold, especially after cutting bait with so many mainstays from their core group (Diggs, Morse Poyer, Hyde, White), but with Josh Allen as his quarterback, GM Brandon Beane believes he's always got a chance. Getting one of the wideouts mentioned above, alongside Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox, and running back James Cook, keeps that offense scary.
As for the Lions, they have been heavily scouting cornerbacks in this draft, even after trading for Carlton Davis from Tampa Bay. Detroit feels like its time is now, and after coming oh so close to beating San Fran in the NFC Championship game, getting a potential top-flight corner could push them over the top. Terrion Arnold of Alabama has been linked to them, but Quinyon Mitchell's physicality and ball skills might be the better fit. The Toledo product is another whose performance at the Senior Bowl spoke volumes to the league's talent evaluators.
