So the big news is the mom-and-pop NFL has increased its salary cap by more than $30 million for the upcoming season - $10 million more than initially expected. That's good news for the Patriots, who can go north of $100 million in cap space should they cut J.C. Jackson but sit somewhere around $87 mil under as of me sitting my sleep-deprived ass down on the couch and writing this (this new dog is a problem).
Two of the Pats' top 10 cap numbers for the upcoming season reside in the wide receiver room, which is amusing because they were one of the worst groups in the league, and the two big dogs financially - JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker - combined for 62 receptions and one touchdown. I commissioned a cost-benefit analysis of said contracts, which revealed the organization would have been better off lighting the money on fire and claiming it was an accident than making their big free agent signing JuJu and inexplicably extending Parker (thanks, Bill).
Parker last played a full season in 2019 with Miami, and in his two years in New England, he has less than 1,000 yards receiving and saw his yards per catch drop from 17.4 to 11.9 this past season.
As for Smith-Schuster, he played in just 11 games and looked nothing like the player you remember from his Pittsburgh days. During Super Bowl week, the man JuJu tried (and failed) to replace, Jakobi Meyers, said the physical toll of the game caught up to the 27-year-old. It's hard to argue with that assessment based on the knee issues and dramatic dropoff in production. In addition, Smith-Schuster's contract is difficult to move off of.
Do you want more good news (he typed sarcastically)? Tyquan Thornton appeared in nine games this season and finished with 91 yards receiving. He was drafted in the second round two years ago. The thought process behind the selection made sense. Thornton's speed would force defenses to account for him. It hasn't played out that way.
As for the rest of the group, DeMario 'Pop' Douglas was very solid in his rookie year, leading the team in targets (73) and yards (561) while finishing second in catches (49). He did miss three games, and that's something to monitor going forward because of his lack of size and weight (he played around 180 pounds despite being listed at 192). Still, Douglas showed flashes that he could be an important and dependable piece as we advance.
Kendrick Bourne was that before blowing out his knee midway through the season, emerging from the 2022 coaching staff's doghouse as a new and improved version of the player who shined in 2021. The added weight did nothing to take away from his quicks, and he was headed for a career year, eating targets and finding the end zone four times in eight starts. He is a pending free agent, and those contract talks have gone nowhere. Despite saying he wants to remain a Patriot, my strong sense is there'll be no hometown discount.
Anywho, the Patriots receiver room needs help, and with money to spend, could Eliot Wolf arm new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt with some pieces to add a level of competence to the unit that has been lacking since 2021?
Signed: Smith-Schuster ($10.28 million/post-June 1 cut would leave $9.6 mil in dead cap), Parker ($6.46 million/post-June 1 cut $4.75 million), Thornton ($1.9 million/pre-June 1 trade $1.15 mil dead cap) Douglas ($948K), Kayshon Boutte ($961K)
Unsigned: Bourne, Jalen Reagor
SHOOTERS SHOOT
1. Calvin Ridley, Jaguars: He is the most well-balanced receiver who could be available via free agency. Watching his tape, you see a player capable of winning against various defenders and defensive schemes. At 29, Ridley still has his speed and is a nuanced route runner. He had some drops in his first year back to football after his post-gambling suspension, but his hands are good.
“When you bring in somebody in that hasn’t been a part of football for over a year and a half, you gotta knock the rust off,” Jags GM Trent Baalke said. “He did that and, at times, he showed who he was and what he used to and what he can be. The sky’s the limit. He’s only going to get better because of the way he works. When you love something as much as he loves football, you can’t help but get better. We would love to have Calvin back. We are going to work toward that. What that means is, I don’t know right now.
Spotrac estimates four years for $68 million. PFF says three for $51 million ($30 mil guaranteed).
BETTING ON POTENTIAL
1. Darnell Mooney, Bears: He is coming from one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in the league and one that had restrictions because of Justin Fields. But in 2021, Mooney had 81 catches for over a thousand yards. Yes, he has a slighter frame, so he's not a big contested catch guy, but he separates with pure speed repeatedly. A timing-based offense, like the West Coast-ish one the Pats will employ, would benefit him. Some nagging injuries have cost Mooney time, but there's a real upside here.
"Yeah, Darnell, like I said before, has been a true pro," said Bears coach Matt Eberflus. "He's done everything we have asked him to do. You know and he's done really good for us. And there was games where he was targeted a bunch of games and he had some catches and did some good YAC yards and we saw some explosiveness there."
Spotrac estimates four years and $41 million. PFF goes one year for $9 million.
2. Curtis Samuel, Commanders: When he entered free agency in 2021, I thought the Pats should have been in on him then. Samuel dealt with some injuries that season but has been productive the last two (62 catches in 2023, 64 in 2022). He has been chiefly used as a slot receiver but is more than capable of playing on the outside. Good hands (just four drops in '23) and strong runner. I view him similarly to Mooney in that there's more there.
Sportrac estimates three years and $34 million. PFF two for $18 ($11.5 mil guaranteed)
3. Gabe Davis, Bills: The Bills never took him off the field when healthy. Physical blocker and receiver, often running through contact. He's never been a great man-beater, and his route running still needs work, but Davis is a solid player with upside if he can refine his game. In 2021, he looked like a future #1. It hasn't played that way since.
Spotrac estimates $54 million over four years. PFF has one year for $12 mil.
I WOULDN'T SAY NO, BUT...
1. Mike Evans, Buccaneers: Yes, he has been an automatic 1,000-yard receiver every year since coming into the league, but he had a fair amount of drops this season and, at 31, you have to wonder if that's not a sign of things to come. The other issue here is because of his status, Evans is very demonstrative when he doesn't get the ball. That could be a problem if the Pats go with a journeyman or a rookie at quarterback. That said, he's still physically overwhelming at times, remaining an excellent contested catch guy and a first-down machine.
Spotrac estimates four years for $95 million. PFF three years for $69 million ($52.5 million guaranteed)
2. Odell Beckham Jr., Ravens: If you sign him, be ready for the circus that comes to town with him. Yet despite his advanced age (31), OBJ is still fast and has excellent mitts. Injuries have significantly impacted his career, but he managed to play 14 games in 2023.
"To me, if there is anything I felt about myself -- regardless of anybody's opinion or anything like that -- is that I know that I can still play football, and I know that I still have [stuff] in the tank," Beckham said following the Ravens' playoff loss to the Chiefs.
Spotrac estimates $11.9 million for one season. PFF is at $10 million.
Best of the rest: Josh Reynolds (Lions), Byron Pringle (Commanders), Tyler Boyd (Bengals)
Not listed: Michael Pittman (Colts). I'd be surprised if he doesn't get franchised.
