This is not about the now-open defensive coordinator job with the 49ers after Kyle Shanahan fired Steve Wilks today.
This is about Shanahan looking in the mirror after his latest Super Bowl loss and being honest with himself. I'm not sure he can. He has more Belichickian stubbornness in him than he would like to admit. If Shanahan really takes a hard look at himself, he should see two glaring weaknesses that have prevented him from starting another dynasty in San Francisco:
- Shanahan's game management is simply not good enough. He blows too many opportunities, like the end of the first half and regulation against the Chiefs, that are often the margin of defeat in postseason games. He's too wrapped up in his playsheet and worrying about the next offensive playcall instead of managing the game.
After Andy Reid called an inexplicable timeout with 1:09 left in the first half, Shanahan should have pounced and tried to answer the Chiefs' field goal before halftime. And Shanahan needed a higher percentage play on 3rd and 5 to run the clock with 2 minutes left. Should have been thinking two downs to win the game.
- Shanahan has to come up with a better answer for his offense against blitz. The Chiefs had about 10 free rushers in that game, and it wasn't all personnel breakdowns — some of it was just weakness of schemes, and the great Steve Spagnuolo knowing exactly how to attack the protections because the 49ers don't have enough tools for the QB at the line of scrimmage.
If Shanahan can get better in both areas, he can still be a Super Bowl champion, and probably have multiple Lombardi Trophies.
And I have two recently unemployed Patriots who would be perfect for the job: Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels. If I'm Shanahan, I'm on the phone today trying to get both to come in at some point — and maybe for the entire season.
Belichick, who is close with Mike Shanahan and sent Jimmy Garoppolo to the son for basically nothing, would be the ideal Yoda (complete with Hoodie) to the flat-billed Luke Skywalker of offense. Shanahan has already lapped Belichick when it comes to constructing a modern team, but Belichick has forgotten more about game management than both Shanahans combined.
Ideally, Belichick spends his sabbatical around the Niners and on Shanahan's headset on gamedays all season, and going on winery tours. Even if Belichick is just there virtually (Shanahan, as Bill Walsh started — proud of that story, one of my better ones — records every single 49ers meeting) and consults with Shanahan before and after games, that would be a big help. But Shanahan could really use Belichick on the headset up in the box every game. That would be something.
I doubt it would happen, but I could see Belichick at least contemplating it. What better way to reset this season than going behind the scenes with one of the top modern teams? Belichick could see how the 49ers do it, pick up some new things (especially offensively), and apply it going forward. And if he's still on top of his game, what a great move it would be to learn everything about the 49ers — their strengths and weaknesses — and then using that against them the following season with the Eagles or Cowboys.
As for McDaniels, who is close with Shanahan, this would benefit both of them. There's no better offense in the NFL at presenting answers at the line of scrimmage for the quarterback than McDaniels'. Shanahan's is not very advanced on that front. Even though that's by design — Shanahan has the utmost confidence he can give the QB two plays that will win — Shanahan and McDaniels in the lab could find a happy medium between the two schemes to give the QB more answers against pressure defenses, which are sure to be coming even more next season after what Spags did to them.
A visit from McDaniels was probably going to happen in any event — McDaniels will likely visit a few teams this year to learn some new tricks for his offense in anticipation of an OC gig next year, perhaps with Belichick — but Shanahan needs to make this a two-way collaboration.
Again ... if Shanahan is really looking in the mirror and not blaming Wilks, his special teams coordinator and quarterback. That might not happen.
PURDY'S FINAL GRADE: C-plus
After going through the 49ers' film, here are my pluses/minuses for Brock Purdy:
First quarter
MINUS Missed Deebo Samuel on crosser
PLUS 18-yard throw to Conley
MINUS Missed Aiyuk
Second quarter
PLUS Throw to Samuel in end zone that was broken up by Trent McDuffie
3 and 9 sack no one was open
MINUS late to Samuel
Third quarter (this where the game was lost)
MINUS late to Samuel on three-step drop
MINUS decision - scramble as Jennings and Aiyuk were options
MINUS decision - Lost 8 yards under pressure to Jennings where throwaway keeps them ahead of sticks
MINUS throw deep right to Kittle - didn't give him a chance
MINUS decision - Samuel wide open uncovered on shallow cross, pass to Aiyuk incomplete
Fourth quarter
MINUS throw - Samuel open for TD, Purdy is late on throw
PLUS throw - 4th and 3 to Kittle. Perfect
PLUS throw - TD to Jennings. Tight coverage. Perfect
MINUS decision - Doesn't throw hot to Aiyuk, McDuffie deflects pass - biggest play of the game, would have won it with 2 minutes.
Overtime
MINUS decision - Had Kittle but incomplete to Samuel
PLUS throw - 11 yards to Aiyuk
PLUS pressure - scramble play to McCaffrey, who was 2 yards behind LOS and picked up another 26
PLUS pressure/throw - scramble play to Juszcyk
That's seven plus plays — five to close the game, which is a big positive — and 11 minus plays.
Now, Spags and the Chiefs made this incredibly tough — McDuffie and Snead were terrific in coverage — but there were plays to be made in this game and the 49ers didn't make them. They needed to win this game in the second and quarter (especially, after the interception to start the half. Purdy was 6 for 15 for 43 yards in those quarters. In the third, the 49ers ran six plays for 3 total yards. That's not all on Purdy — it's on Shanahan as well — but if you are going to win a championship over an all-time great, you have to get a special performance from the QB. And that didn't happen. Purdy was solid, good. But it's not good enough.
I expect Shanahan to add at quarterback this offseason. Ideally a better athlete in the second or third round that could be a threat a year from now.
I respect the opinion of these two former QBs, if you don't want to take my word for it.
Chris Simms
JT O'Sullivan
