Everyone is curious about the endgame between Bill Belichick and the Krafts - if there is an endgame - and what the succession plan might be, including Jerod Mayo. Here's what I know, what I believe and what I think:
- To begin with, the stakes don't get bigger for a franchise than the next month for the Patriots. The possible parting of ways with an all-time great coach is a heavy subject for all involved - the interested parties, coaches, players, front office, other employees, families and fans. There's a lot at stake for many people, so there are a lot of competing interests. It makes reporting these stories ... not much fun and very difficult. I went through it with Brett Favre's retirement/divorce with the Packers, and Nick Saban bolting the Dolphins for Alabama. And social media wasn't really a thing during those two episodes, let alone getting aggregated for every comment you make.
- Everyone involved is walking a tightrope. The chances for misinformation getting passed on to you are high. I'm fully aware that sources that have never steered me wrong over the years could do that in this instance. This is an unprecedented time for the Patriots franchise. All I can do is talk to as many trusted sources I can, and pass along that information to you while keeping a careful eye out for competing interests.
- As far as Tom E. Curran's report on NBC Sports Boston — "When they came out of Germany, conversations I had that week made it very clear that a decision was made. They were going to play out the string, and at the end of the year there would be a parting of the ways, for a variety of reasons." — I have no reason to doubt it. I have an enormous amount of respect for Curran and his ability to report out the behind-the-scenes stuff with an organization he has covered longer than anyone. I also have no direct evidence that it's 100 percent over for Belichick in New England at the end of the season.
- Do I believe the Krafts decided at some point after the Colts game, that the die was cast and they were likely going to have to part ways with Belichick after the season? Yes. And I think Belichick knows this as well. The Krafts gave Belichick a chance to right his 2022 wrongs, and it only got worse in '23. Why? Because Belichick's personnel (and staffing) issues were again exposed, and that's always been the major issue. These Patriots just aren't that good. And that is Belichick's fault and his ultimate demise here.
- Do I think that Belichick is definitely done here? While that's the most likely outcome, not necessarily. The Patriots could close the season strong. Robert Kraft could get cold feet when the decision comes to parting ways with a legend and completing the divorce from the glory days. I think the odds of that happening are low, but can't be ruled out yet.
- I don't think this has been broached with Belichick but a) he's not an idiot, and b) I would expect a meeting to happen sometime before the season finale. The Krafts want the least drama-filled ending possible for themselves, Belichick and the fans. I don't think that can happen if they wait until Jan. 8 to discuss it.
- Is that nice-and-tidy ending possible? Not likely. Those who know Belichick well think that he will go into that meeting with the Krafts with an alternative ready to present to them, possibly to just box them into a corner. What that might be, how it might look? No one has any idea. But Kraft is going to open the meeting, perhaps with a simple question like, "What are we going to do?" And Belichick is going to have something ready for him that involves him continuing on. It could just be a way to set up Belichick's power move, but it could be a real try to stay in power. Will Kraft agree? It's possible. Not sure it's likely.
- Everyone I have spoken with is adamant that Belichick is not going to allow Kraft to find the "elegant solution" everyone keeps talking about — unless there was some tweak to Belichick's contract Kraft got at the time of the last extension that allows for that. There's absolutely nothing in it for Belichick if he agrees to a trade. Kraft might think he's doing Belichick a solid by keeping his contract and language intact and just transferring it to another team, but Belichick is just going to balk at that and say he can handle his own contract, thanks. Belichick might agree to nice press release language about parting of the ways, but make no mistake: the odds are strong that this will end up being a firing at the end of the day.
- I know this for a fact: more than one organization has already been sniffing around Belichick. I don't know if that means having contact with him directly, but I doubt it. Belichick's no dummy. That would void his contract and, therefore, the leverage to script his own exit - which he very much wants.
- Would Belichick agree to give up personnel control? Doubtful. Even if he did, there's no one the Krafts could bring in from inside the family (Jon Robinson, Thomas Dimitroff, Dave Zeigler) that wouldn't just defer to Belichick. Eliot Wolf could, possibly, do it. The Krafts would almost have to bring in an unaffiliated outsider – and that's not going to work. You'd be inviting a Pete Carroll-Bobby Grier-level fiasco. And the Krafts learned not to do that again.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
- If Belichick is gone, is Jerod Mayo definitely the successor? No, according to multiple sources. One source called Mayo a "longshot." I can't rule out that it's just wishful thinking on the source's part.
- Elevating Mayo would indicate the Patriots are basically keeping the band together — minus a Hall of Fame coach still on top of his game as a gameplanner and game coach, in favor of a head coach who has never even called his own defense. That's an upgrade? If it happens, I'm sure the Krafts will cite a new model of collaboration. That shouldn't fool anyone. You'd be trading Belichick for Mayo. Not many would sign up for that.
- And you're going to promote from within from a team that has posted losing seasons three out of the past four years, including a bottoming out this year? How often does that happen in the NFL? And you're selling point is going to be, 'Well, the defense was really good.' Again, why not keep Belichick, the defense is his baby?
- Look at the Krafts' track record of hiring head coaches. As limited as it is, they ended up with two Hall of Fame coaches (Carroll, Belichick). Why wouldn't they stick with that formula? Both had long track records as strong defensive coordinators (two different teams each) and had experience as a head coach (Carroll had one year with the Jets). Mayo doesn't fit that profile at all.
- You know who would? Mike Vrabel. If you were drawing a line from the Krafts' past hiring to their next one, Vrabel would be the ideal candidate. And yet another league source told me this week of Vrabel that "(I) don’t think he’s happy" in Tennessee.
- Vrabel could elevate Mayo to defensive coordinator/assistant head coach with Steve Belichick likely departing with his father. Bill O'Brien, who Vrabel worked for in Houston, could stay on as offensive coordinator (with staff autonomy) and bring some OC stability for the foreseeable future (always an issue with a defensive head coach in today's NFL). I think O'Brien is a really good coach, but he might not get that chance again soon — similar to Josh McDaniels. O'Brien could certainly be instructed to get a good QB coach ready in time.
- As long as they're in alignment on the next GM, wouldn't a Vrabel-centric setup appeal to the Krafts?
HC: Mike Vrabel
OC: Bill O'Brien
DC/AHC: Jerod Mayo
Sounds ideal to me, if I'm the Krafts. And you can sell that in New England, big time.
- While nearly everyone I've talked to believes Mayo has the stuff to be a head coach, I can't find many who believe he is ready to assume that role right now. He needs to sit and learn more from a coach who shares a bit more, like a Vrabel, and to have more responsibility. Of course, if Mayo is passed over, you can almost guarantee he'll re-enter the HC interview circuit.
- Multiple team sources indicated Mayo has rubbed at least some people the wrong way in the building since his extension and when he, perhaps, received a strong indication he would be the successor (the idea was more for 2025 or '26). Maybe this is of no concern to the Krafts, if their mind was already made up. I have no new information that would lead me to believe the Krafts don't continue to think highly of Mayo. But you would expect them to do their due diligence on whoever they might have in mind — internal or external. Of course, you can't rule out that some sources are lining up their own boats and perhaps thinking that Mayo may be setting a new course.