EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — Deep thoughts about the Patriots' future as the 2-8 Patriots prepare to face off with the 3-8 Giants in a matchup between Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe against Tommy Devito...
Topics discussed:
- Coaching landscape and search if the Krafts move beyond Bill Belichick;
- The questions the Krafts should be asking Jerod Mayo about his plans, and what Mayo should be doing;
- Issues in Tennessee make Mike Vrabel a real factor in this;
- The Patriots' epic fail on the offensive line compared to the Chiefs;
What the Krafts should do
Do I think the Krafts told Jerod Mayo that he would be the next coach if he stayed this past offseason? Not exactly. If there were no such assurances to Josh McDaniels when he got off the plane to Indy, why should Mayo be any different?
Do I think it's the Krafts intention for Mayo to be Belichick's successor after this season? Yes, I do. And I can tell you the universal opinion around the league, including from the five executives I talked to over the past two weeks, is that Mayo will be the next coach of the Patriots.
But that doesn't mean that's what the Krafts should do.
I've seen a lot of different regimes in my time covering the league. This would be my advice to the Krafts:
Start talking to people you respect right now.
I would start with former Patriots personnel who have worked elsewhere around the league who are not quite beholden to Belichick. Josh McDaniels and Jon Robinson both have long-term, big-money contracts left with the Raiders and Titans, respectively. In short, they don't give a crap who they offend. Thomas Dimitroff would also be on my list since he's been out of the game for a while. Scott Pioli is too closely aligned with Belichick and the old way of doing things.
Start by asking them why they think the Patriots have fallen off with three losing seasons out of the last four. Where has the team come up short? Where do they need to get better? Where is the league going? Who are the top coaching candidates? How should the Patriots handle coaching and personnel? How aggressive should their cap management be? What should the player budget be each season? What can ownership do better?
Basically, this entire offseason should start off as one huge fact-finding mission about the state of the franchise. Hopefully, they — especially Robert — only get one chance to remake this franchise. Hopefully there's another 20-year run of excellence after all this. Identify the weaknesses and mistakes, and go about setting a new course.
If they embark on a coaching/GM search, talk to as many people as possible.
Mayo may be their preferred candidate and the right man for the job, but the Krafts should only arrive at that conclusion after they have vetted every other alternative.
Start with Adam Peters of the 49ers with personnel, and Ben Johnson of the Lions as head coach. Those are the two biggest names in both set of candidates.
This is a chance to mine the best and brightest around the league about where the Patriots have come up short, and where the NFL is going. It would be a dereliction of duty if they conducted these searches like Belichick did looking for an offensive coordinator and offensive line. We all know that was rigged from the start. How can you possibly say you're doing what's in the best interest of the franchise when you don't cast a wide net at two of the most important positions on the coaching staff?
Peters, who started out with the Patriots, should be very tempting. He seems primed to run his own franchise, and having intimate knowledge of the Shanahan system could be very tempting.
Only after talking to multiple candidates for both jobs should the Krafts decide whether or not this will be a franchise with a strong head coach, like with Belichick, or a strong GM.
As soon as the Krafts identify which person, GM or HC, is the right person to lead the Patriots, then they should empower them to hire the rest of the staff without regard to price tag. If that's Mayo or another head coach, let him pick the GM. If that's a GM, like Peters, then they hire the HC, hopefully an offensive mind from the Shanahan tree. Let them decide on Mac Jones.
You have to have alignment between the HC and GM. Shotgun marriages no longer work in the NFL.
The important thing is to cast a wide net. Talk to all the best and brightest.
Mayo's limited NFL exposure is a big topic
Before the Krafts just hand Jerod Mayo the keys to their franchise, they must ask him what his plans are for his coaching staff — and tell him the budget is unlimited.
If he's just going to keep nearly everyone in place, that's not good enough. In essence, you'd only be taking Bill Belichick out of the mix — perhaps his sons — and replacing Belichick with Mayo. No thanks. I think I'd rather keep the status quo in that case.
NFL observers really wonder what kind of knowledge Mayo is going to have when it comes to filling out a staff. He was a player only for the Patriots. He has only coached for the Patriots. How many people does he know outside of the One Patriot Place universe?
It's incumbent that Mayo have a plan to hire the best and brightest. He will likely have to tap the knowledge of his agent, Sean Kiernan, and his firm, Athletes First, who have a vast catalog of clients in coaching and front offices. Kiernan is a veteran, respected agent with a big client list. Mayo should also contact any close associates who have worked elsewhere — like current/former Patriots outposts in Vegas, Detroit, New York, Tennessee, Houston, etc. Identify the best, and the next generation. He should have two layers of coaches to get the most out of this roster.
It would be great for Bill O'Brien to stay, but let him fill out the entire offensive coaching staff — starting with a real QB coach who can be his understudy in case O'Brien leaves for a head job. A great offensive line and receivers coach should also be high on his list.
The Krafts need to make sure the next staff isn't just a redux, that Mayo has a plan to attract assistants who excel at player development, and they should sign every check without question.
Definitely check in on Mike Vrabel.
A lot of people around the NFL took note of this quote from Vrabel when he was inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame.
“I don’t want you to take this organization for granted,” Vrabel said. “I’ve been a lot of places, this is a special place with great leadership, great fans, great direction, and great coaching. Enjoy it, it’s not like this everywhere.”
Vrabel obviously differed with Robinson on the trade of A.J. Brown and that decision ultimately led to Robinson's firing by ownership — not Vrabel — after both Vrabel and Robinson signed dueling four-year contract extensions.
Many believe that Vrabel was put in the position of being a strong HC and wanted the hiring of Ran Carthon as GM. That is incorrect. That was a shotgun marriage by ownership. NFL sources believe the league had a heavy hand in owner Amy Adams Strunk hiring Carthon, a top minority candidate. Vrabel and Carthon had no previous relationship, and it's believed they don't have much of one now. There have been issues with Carthon's job performance even back to his 49ers days.
League sources believe that Vrabel could be looking for a way to force his way out of Tennessee after this season, and the Patriots would be an obvious landing spot — if not the frontrunner. Could the Krafts trade Belichick to the Commanders, Chargers or Panthers, and then secure Vrabel? It's not out of the realm of possibility.
Before you start asking what Vrabel has won ... what did Belichick win before he landed here? And use your eyes. The man was 45-27 without personnel control and with Ryan Tannehill as his quarterback. He should be given a medal.
I'm not saying he should be the guy — he'd certainly be a better candidate than Mayo — and he definitely needs to explain his offensive and personnel philosophies (his annual OC dance illustrates perfectly the issues hiring a defensive HC), but the Krafts should be intrigued and on the phone with Adams Strunk after the season.
Epic fail on the the offensive line.
Something that didn't occur to me until tkevorki's question in the lastest member Q&A: The Chiefs got their left tackle, Donovan Smith, for $3 million. The Patriots signed Reilly Reiff AND Calvin Anderson for $9 million.
Look, I'm not going to sit here and pretend the Chiefs have knocked it out of the park on the line. Their line is actually just a little above average, but it's hard to tell because Patrick Mahomes is a double-edged sword — he escapes some pressure, but causes a lot on his own by holding to make a play and with poor receivers outside Travis Kelce.
It's more about planning and investing.
Besides actually signing Joe Thuney a few years back when the Patriots would not, the Chiefs needed two tackles this offseason. They paid the freight for the best free agent (Juwaann Taylor) — he's been middling with a lot of penalties. They found Smith as a cap casualty and figured they could coach him to be better. They then drafted a future OT starter in Wanya Morris in the third round.
That's actually caring and having a plan on the offensive line and for your quarterback. It might not work, but at least they tried. Reiff, Anderson and three interior mid-round guards ... thanks for the effort. Don't strain yourself.
Patriots are still in a position, unless they draft a tackle high, where Trent Brown is still the best option at left tackle, and Mike Onwenu could be gone in free agency — watch him sign with the Chiefs. Actually, the Bills are more likely.