"So we keep on waiting …waiting on the world to change.”
As we keep on waiting for the Boston Red Sox to go “full throttle” as promised, we’re left with a couple of interesting offseason tidbits for discussion: the future of Alex Cora’s managerial career in Boston, and missing out on free agent starting pitcher Seth Lugo.
Let’s start with Cora. The 48-year-old is reportedly a hot commodity around the league, even though he’s still under contract and already confirmed by Craig Breslow to be returning as Red Sox manager in 2024.
“Several teams have already expressed strong interest in Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who’s a free agent after the season,” Bob Nightingale at USA Today writes in a recent column.
Hmm, do you think Breslow could trade Cora for some starting pitching? Only kidding (mostly…).
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Cora is drawing interest around baseball, for two reasons. First, and most obviously, he is a good manager. A World Series-winning skipper. A 440-370 career managerial record. A 17-8 postseason record with two trips to the American League Championship Series in five seasons on the resume.
Secondly, Breslow and the Red Sox seem lukewarm about bringing Cora back beyond the 2024 season.
And that makes plenty of sense, frankly. Despite his success in Boston, you can’t escape the fact that Cora has now managed back-to-back last-place finishes. Outside of his two playoff seasons, Cora is a sub-.500 manager (240-246).
John Henry’s ownership group has stuck their neck out for Cora on multiple occasions, first by bringing him back following a league-mandated season-long suspension for his role in “Trashcangate" with the Houston Astros, then by sticking with him over Chaim Bloom this offseason.
It’s clear that ownership likes Cora, and that’s understandable. But it’s also completely understandable that a newcomer like Breslow is going to bide his time and not commit to a manager he may not believe in moving forward.
Cora was the perfect manager for the 2018 Red Sox. He related to his players in ways others like John Farrell, Ron Roenicke and certainly Bobby Valentine couldn’t. Cora’s skillset is a blend of “old school player” and “new school numbers guy.” A good manager in today’s game is someone who pays attention to the numbers and takes consideration from the front office, but doesn’t ignore that “feel” for the game in their gut. Cora does that quite well, I’d say.
All that being said, Cora may not be the right manager for these Red Sox as currently constituted. We’ll see what he is given to work with next season — if it’s a team capable of contending for the playoffs or one that’s still mostly in rebuild mode. If it is the latter, then as we’ve seen in the past two years, that might not be Cora’s wheelhouse.
Cora is a win-now manager, and if the Red Sox aren’t going to be in win-now mode, then it might make sense to move on. I like Alex’s fit as Boston’s manager and a modern-day big league manager in general, and I don’t put a majority share of the blame for their struggles in the past two seasons on him. But I certainly wouldn’t suggest that Cora is a manager the team must keep at all costs moving forward.
Losing out on Lugo
After missing out on the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, the twenty nine remaining teams were left scrambling to find the next best free agent.
Who was that exactly? Seth Lugo, of course (not).
Yet just like Ohtani, the Red Sox too missed out on signing Lugo — although if it makes you feel any better, they were reportedly one of the top bidders for the veteran right-handed starter. Alas, they just couldn’t compete with the alluring package offered by the big, bad Kansas City Royals…
Should Breslow and the Red Sox brass be kicking themselves for missing out on Lugo? Yes and no, but I’d say mostly no.
“Solid” and “steady” are the descriptors I would attach to Lugo as a major league starter. He’s 34 years old and a former 34th-round draft pick. He owns a lifetime record of 40-31, a 3.50 ERA and a 1.173 WHIP across 641 innings in 301 appearances including 64 starts. Last year, Lugo went 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.203 WHIP and a career-best 140 strikeouts in a career-high 26 starts with the San Diego Padres.
Overall, there seems to be nothing outstanding with Lugo, but he’s an above average major league pitcher for sure. That was reflected in the reported three-year, $45 million deal the Royals gave him — an average annual value of $15 million per season. That sounds about right for someone who is probably best served as a No. 3 starter type.
So, are the Red Sox now going to be set back for a decade because they couldn’t sign Lugo? Nope. But it’s no secret they’re in need of quality starting pitchers, of which Lugo is one. He would have been a good fit as a No. 3 to 5 in addition to some higher profile signings like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and so on.
Had the Red Sox walked away with one of the top tier free agent starting pitchers and Lugo, and that’s it — I can’t say I would have been thrilled, either. But it certainly beats adding nobody and no one, as the Red Sox have currently done…