Bailey Zappe's first start of the season was much anticipated in some circles of Patriots Nation.
All that really matters is, did it improve the Patriots' offensive situation?
Obviously if you just go by the results at the end of the game — a shutout and the Patriots never advancing past the Chargers' 28-yard line — then the answer is a resounding no. But obviously, at least to most people, the game of football and especially the quarterback position is about more than what you can read in a box score. We hope.
So, back to the original question, before we get into the coaches film, unit ratings and three up/three down. In some ways, yes, this was an improvement. In some ways, it was not.
For example, Zappe's final BSJ rating was a -11.8%. That's not winning football. But it was better than five of Mac Jones' starts (Giants, Cowboys, Saints, Raiders and at Miami). It was worse than six of Jones' starts (Commanders, Colts, Bills, Jets, Dolphins and Eagles).
The Patriots' offensive expected points added was -13.06 - their worst since the Saints game. The passing offense was -12.08. Only the Giants game was worse since New Orleans.
So, in the grand scheme of things, this was just another subpar 2023 Patriots offensive/QB performance.
Here were the positives:
- Zappe had seven plus plays in the game. That's the 5th-highest mark of the season.
- PFF had Zappe for zero turnover-worthy plays, the only time that's happened this season. We would argue with that considering the tipped pass that was almost picked off.
- Pressure was again a huge issue for the Patriots. Their 50% rate was the third-highest of the season. Only Jones against the Colts performed better against that type of pressure (66.7%).
- Five of Zappe's plus plays were throws. The other two were scrambles.
Onto the negatives:
- Zappe was sacked five times — all in the second half. We charged Zappe with two half sacks and one full sack (5.0 seconds).
- Zappe's expected completion percentage was 62.1 and his actual completion percentage was 52. His -10.1 difference was 22nd out of 25 QBs in the NFL this week. Jones had five games on the plus side, the latest being a +6.4 in Week 10 vs. the Colts. Of course, Jones was a -14.1 and 32nd in the league the week before vs. the Giants, so Zappe offered a modest improvement.
- According to PFF, Zappe completed just 33.3% of his passes for 36 yards under pressure, along with five sacks and one scramble.
- We had Zappe for five minus decisions in the game. Hated the decisions to throw jump balls, and often Zappe had better choices elsewhere. Those are elements of a passing game from some 30 years ago. The game is much different now, especially if you don't have an elite perimeter talent (Patriots do not). We're willing to bet that Zappe's eagrness to throw those 20/80 balls (and Zappe was 1 out of 5 on those passes — with Tyquan Thornton's drop — so 20% is on the money with this receiving corp) comes straight from being brainwashed by Matt Patricia, who loved those crappy concepts. The modern pass game is about timing, space and speed. Those prayer passes are prehistoric. A lot has to go right (see Thornton's drop, DeVante Parker getting only one foot in bounds).
For a first start, it wasn't half bad (even if it was against the 29th total defense in DVOA and 27th against the pass), and you would expect him to improve with more practice and game snaps. Zappe got a little of Jones' medicine with the shoddy protection (Mike Onwenu was so bad you're hoping he caught the bug going around the team). Bad weapons and worse protection is no way to go through an NFL season, mister. Like with Jones, the pressure allowed only lets a middling QB talent do so much.
Zappe got off to a horrible start (1 plus/5 minus plays in first half). He got better as the game went on and as Bill O'Brien opened things up a bit and mixed in some tempo.
It was obviously an improvement over where Jones was a week ago (you couldn't get much worse). But Zappe is just not an NFL starter, unless he's surrounded by elite talent at every single position. You're hoping he can regain the form he showed last year which was a good backup/spot starter.
But Zappe isn't going to change much for the Patriots. The dye has been set by his surrounding cast - players and coaches included.
A look at the good and bad from Zappe on the two drives in the third quarter:
Here are the positional ratings against the Chargers:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (2 out of 5)
Zappe is just a more natural quarterback than Jones, who feels like he was forced into playing position by an overzealous dad who just wanted his son to play the top position in all sports and is the byproduct of getting personal coaching since he was 8. The problem is, Zappe just has zero physical gifts outside of some fluid hips that allow him to be slippery in the pocket, and he doesn't seem to have above-average processing speed. ... You could see the frustration from Bill O'Brien when Zappe took that huge 11-yard sack on 2nd and 5 from essentially midfield. He had both Juju Smith-Schuster and Jalen Reagor open but Zappe looked at the rush allowed (again) by Onwenu, and then just failed to give Smith-Schuster a chance. ... It seemed like O'Brien went back into his college well on the no-huddle sequences. Zappe would give a dummy hard count, and then look at O'Brien, who signaled in the new play, which Zappe relayed.
Running backs (2 out of 5)
Unfortunate that Rhamondre Stevenson was injured after a blown block by Onwenu. ... Great catch and YAC from Ezekiel Elliott on the 23-yard screen - another of many errant passes from Zappe in the first half. ... The pass protection from the backs the past two weeks (Stevenson last week) had been among the worst I've ever seen from a Patriots backfield. Elliott allowed a half sack and two hurries, in addition to his own fumble (recovered). Ivan Fears ain't walking through that door outside of lifting in the weight room and watching practice.
Receivers (2 out of 5)
I have to say, this was the first game I can remember where I didn't have the Patriots' receivers for multiple bad routes. I only had one: DeVante Parker jogging down the sideline before not connecting on the high-point jump ball from Zappe. If Parker gave full effort, that might have been completed (I still hate those plays ... unless you have Calvin Johnson). ... We actually gave Parker a plus route on his 25-yard reception across the field. Parker looked like a real receiver with real coaching when he gave a head fake to the post, and then continued toward the sideline. That is how you gain separation without being an elite talent. Technique matters. Coaching matters. ... We also thought Tyquan Thornton did a great job on his route when he stacked the cornerback he had beaten. He forgot to catch the ball, however, when he left his feet instead of running through the ball.
Offensive line (1 out of 5)
The end results were not good, but David Andrews and Cole Strange had strong outings. Strange has always been good against undersized lines. Steelers will be another tough challenge for him. Andrews had one of the finest run blocking performances of his career (four plus run blocks, one screen). ... A week after posting the best performance by a Patriots offensive lineman, Onwenu had one of the worst. He had to have been sick. Sure, maybe playing right tackle isn't his best position and, obviously, Khalil Mack is a very good player, but Onwenu should at least be even in that matchup. He was awful and looked more like Vederian Lowe than himself. ... Sidy Sow allowed three stuffed runs and two hurries. Sow is nearly pretty good in the run game and he did have two plus runs. But this was fairly poor from him, but a typical rookie performance. ... Trent Brown is battling injuries but he looks like he doesn't care at this point and that his weight has started to shoot up.
TWO UP
David Andrews: No quit in the captain, that's for sure. Steelers will be a much stiffer challenge.
Rhamondre Stevenson: We didn't put his fumble on him - it went to Onwenu for whiffing - and he might have carried the Patriots to a win if he finished the game. He looked strong again to start.
THREE DOWN
Mike Onwenu: 11 minus plays. What in the name of Vederian Lowe happened out there?
Bailey Zappe: Inaccurate early, and slow processing led to killer sacks in the second half.
Trent Brown: A tradition unlike any other - predicting Brown's give-a-crap-factor late in Patriots seasons