Bedard: Take a breath for a second - softening schedule will keep the Patriots in this

Yeah, I know, it hasn't been great for the Patriots to this point.

Their offensive outputs have decreased by the week (20, 17, 15, 3) ... man, what they wouldn't kill to have 20 in the back pocket every week... It's been so bad, people are pining for Matt Patricia's offense.

Sunday against Dallas was embarrassing. The quarterback was running around like a chicken with his head cut off, and the defense wasn't exactly Fort Knox. And now the defense has lost arguably it's best two players: Matthew Judon (a while) and Christian Gonzalez the season.

The Patriots are in Loserville in the AFC playoff race with the other 1-3 teams: Jets, Raiders, Bengals and Broncos. They are third-worst in the conference in point differential. And things, seemingly, have gotten worse every week.

Cue it ...

via GIPHY

I'm not going to disagree on any of those points. Four games into the season, the Patriots have been one of the worst teams in the league. 

But ... things aren't quite as bleak as they appear. I think things have swung way too far in the depressing/jump off the Tobin direction. In fact, even if the Patriots lost today to the Saints, the season is not over. 

(For the record, I'm not just saying this, I really believe it - like always. And I said as much Tuesday on Felger & Mazz after watching the film.)

Let's start with the biggest reason: the Patriots' schedule, which was daunting before the season, has softened a bit.

New England's schedule, ranked the most difficult before the season by every metric, was a big reason why I picked the Patriots to finish 7-10. While the Patriots have faced the third-most difficult schedule through four games (Jets and Giants are in front of them, and also 1-3 ... funny how that works), FTN's DVOA has the Patriots having the 17th most difficult schedule the rest of the way. That's a long way from the preseason predictions.

It basically lays out like this. The Patriots have nine winnable games remaining, the kind that you could see them winning against lesser opponents/quarterback:

vs. Saints (2-2), 17th DVOA
at Raiders (1-3), 30th
vs. Commanders (2-3), 24th
vs. Colts (2-2), 19th
at Giants (1-3), 32nd
vs. Chargers (2-2), 12th
at Steelers (2-2), 25th
at Broncos (1-3), 29th
vs. Jets (1-3), 23rd

That's NINE GAMES against teams without winning records. Zero are in the top 10 of DVOA.

So even if the Patriots lost to the Saints considering the state of the team and Mac Jones seeing pass rushers around every corner he saunters by in One Patriot Place, it would not be unreasonable to think the Patriots could still get to 9-8.

I'm not saying they're a lock or anything. But it could happen.

That's why I think today isn't quite a must-win, although it's pretty close. The Patriots dropping to 0-3 at home would be embarrassing.

Uh, yeah, The Curse of the Lighthouse, kid. There's a goat that haunts it at night. Bob bought that thing instead of playahs and the team sunk.

I know it's been ugly, especially the Cowboys game, but be honest ... who really thought the Patriots were going to be better than 1-3 at this point? Nobody. Maybe the Bill-bos. Sure, it's been bad ... but this is kind of what happens when your starting offensive line never practices during the summer, you have a new offensive coordinator and line coach who are unfamiliar with each other, and your weaponry has more stiffs than a morgue. 

The Patriots were going to get off to a bad start. That was guaranteed against that schedule — they lost to three of the best teams in the league, and three of the best pass rushes. I picked them to start 1-3, and then 3-5 and 5-5. One happened, the other is likely and the last thing could well be reality. 

However, I had them going 2-5 down stretch before the season.

Right now, I'd say 4-3 is the minimum. And that would get them into 9-8 territory with wins the next two weeks against the Saints and Raiders.

It's not going to be easy. The Saints are more talented than the Patriots, and are very similar in a lot of ways. Bill Belichick is never great against his old assistants because that's how unchanged he is. That game could mean a lot for the future of McDaniels and Belichick. 

I'm optimistic that the Patriots will make a run at making this season interesting. Sorry, but it was going to take time for a new coordinator and the players to get in sync (which was why the Bill O'Brien impact was overblown ... it doesn't happen overnight). The line is going to get healthier. They will start to round into the unit they figured to be, if Adrian Klemm was worth his contract (still a big if). The running backs will get going, and that will open up some things more in the pass game. Mac Jones will find the right balance between risk/reward.

Defensively, Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo will eventually not be afraid of their own shadows against Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa. The defense will start turning the ball over and even score some touchowns, or at least short fields.

Belichick's vaunted special teams, with as many coaches as special teams-only players, will no longer be LAST in the league in DVOA.

We must acknowledge that some of the creampuffs remaining on the schedule will also improve: looking at the Commanders, Colts, Giants and Broncos as they settle down with new QBs/coaches. 

But it's all right there for the Patriots, especially, if they can just get their stuff together and get any type of W today against the Saints — good, bad or ugly.

The Patriots have a very real shot, no matter what you think of them after Dallas, to be 5-5 heading into their bye week. And the final six games look mighty tasty.

4-2 or 5-1 is not outrageous after winning 4 of 6. And then we'll be talking the p-word.

Take a breath. Forget about Dallas, it happens.

One game at a time.