A year ago, I looked at the landscape for the 2022 Patriots and concluded that Bill Belichick, through purely self-inflicted wounds, didn't put himself or the team in position to succeed.
It wasn't just the coaching plan on offense. It was also about what he allowed those inexperienced coaches to do in changing the offense and how they did things. That was not going to work.
The five weeks of training camp was awful overall with a lack of really good work.
Belichick had to invest his own time more in the offense and that have a negative effect on defense (against good coaches) and special teams (their worst season).
And the top-end talent on this team was just not good enough.
You may look at their 8-9 final record and conclude they weren't that far away. But with seven wins coming against backup quarterbacks, were they really all that close to begin with?
Heading into 2023, I feel a lot better about a lot of things on this team.
Bill O'Brien will be a huge positive, and there's hope for offensive line coach Adrian Klemm. The offensive line could, when healthy, be the best in the division. The weapons are functional despite not being dynamic. There are enough different pieces to get the job done most weeks. The backfield could be really good.
The defense could be for real if promising rookies Christian Gonzalez, Keion White and Marte Mapu hit huge. Belichick and his great mind could make the difference for defense and special teams. And I do like the young talent on this team.
The Patriots will be better this season. But it will not be reflected in their record.
Why?
1. The schedule.
It is a brutal slate, ranked everywhere as the toughest in the league. We know that probably won't hold up, but it's still going to be daunting.
There are two definitely winnable games: Washington and Indianapolis in Germany.
There are six games the Patriots normally would win, but none of them are easy and four are on the road: vs. Saints, at Raiders, at Giants, at Steelers, at Broncos, vs. Chargers. Patriots need to sweep those five, at least 5-1, to have a real chance at the postseason. I gave them three wins there but they are all going to be battles.
The Saints could be a division winner and legit good, but I don't have faith in Derek Carr even though he came back and beat New England last year.
The Raiders are better and Josh McDaniels knows how to gameplan for the Patriots. Same for Brian Daboll and the Giants.
The Steelers could be damn good and a division winner. Sean Payton is a good coach and the Patriots always struggle in Denver. The Chargers are uber talented but I do not have faith in Brandon Staley.
Then you have the three games the Patriots will be heavy underdogs: Eagles, Chiefs and, to a lesser extent, the Cowboys (that game is winnable). Then you have the division where the Patriots, today, have the fourth-best roster. That's not a debate. Injuries will have something to say about that.
Unless there are big-time injury issues, just about every game is going to be a huge challenge with not many breaks. The Patriots have to be really good week in and week out for 18 weeks.
2. The division.
I think we can probably all agree this is the toughest divisional competition ever under Belichick.
Aaron Rodgers with an elite defense, a stud receiver and two top backs for the Jets (5th in projected DVOA - 4th-hardest schedule)
The Bills (first in projected DVOA, 3rd schedule) are still the Bills until we learn differently with a unicorn at QB.
If Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy and Vic Fangio does what he always does, the Dolphins could be the best team (12th in DVOA - 2nd schedule).
The Patriots are 15th in projected DVOA with the hardest schedule.
A repeat of last year's 3-3 division record would be a great showing, but unlikely.
3. The offensive line.
Some of it was just bad luck (you'd rather have that now than November), but they left themselves really short at right tackle for too long and could be dead in the water before it's figured out in a month. Plus, they need Trent Brown and Cole Strange to deliver all season. Possible, for sure.
And do we know Klemm is up for the job? Didn't last a year in Pittsburgh and the early returns this summer didn't see a huge improvement from the players who did suit up.
4. Lack of depth.
This is where the poor drafts (including 2022 and 2019) and the decisions to bypass certain positions (namely OT and TE) really hurt.
The Patriots are lacking depth at QB, OT, OG, WR, TE, 3rd down back, DT, LB and CB. If the Patriots go on a poor run with injuries — Trent Brown, Hunter Henry, any WR, Davon Godchaux, any CB — they will not be able to measure up in this division. They basically need one of their healthiest seasons ever, just to have a chance.
5. Lack of top-end players, especially on offense.
Patriots have one player who is truly among the NFL's elite, Matthew Judon. Those players make things much easier on a team. Big plays, turnovers ... it makes life better for everyone.
The Patriots don't have one dangerous player on offense who threatens every time to score a touchdown, or make a big chunk play. Even with similar talent in the past, the Patriots had good stats thanks to Josh McDaniels' ability to scheme people open. Are we sure Bill O'Brien can do that? He had a great offense in 2011 with the Patriots, but the Patriots had three players, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker, as elite players with Tom Brady pulling the trigger. Patriots don't have anything remotely close to that at any of those positions. O'Brien made things work well enough with the Texans in a bad division. He needs to be on a different level this year, and maybe his Alabama experience will help him invent some easy yards.
The defense has a handful of players who could be blue chip players, but we've been saying that for several years and it hasn't happened. Yes, they could all break out this year ... at least three need to (Dugger, Barmore and hopefully Gonzalez).
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I'm encouraged by what I saw out of Belichick the coach this summer. He seemed to be back in his comfort zone and should be a plus for this team on defense and special teams. That helps. Hopefully his game management will be better, and the discipline on this team.
There is some talent on this team - a lot of good players. Give me the top 15 on this list, let the coaches do their thing with some of the youngsters on this team, and I'm ready to go to war.
I think Mac Jones will rebound well this season with his confidence restored.
I just think it's going to take some time to come together — remember when Tom Brady started 7-5 with the Bucs and appeared to be in big trouble?
The big problem: the Patriots don't have this time with this schedule.
The first four games are brutal. The Saints will not be a pushover. Then it's the Bills and Dolphins (on the road). The Patriots will be lucky to start 3-5, which is what I have them doing. They get two layups to get to 5-5 (provided no Bears redux - and that's giving NE the Saints and Raiders games ... dicey), but then it's a brutal gauntlet to finish:
at Giants
Chargers
at Steelers
Chiefs
at Broncos
at Bills
Jets
By my full-season projection (dubious), they would need to win 5 of 7 to get near a playoff berth, when 11-6 might actually be the minimum.
I see two wins out of those seven - and every game will be a tractor pull and a half.
I think the Patriots are, finally, going in the right direction overall but Belichick's failure to prioritize offense like every team in the league will be the final blow for this team.
