Giardi: I've Been Away For Too Long ... and some Patriots thoughts

2023 didn't get off to an awesome start for me - my NFL Network job went bye-bye, my dog is terminally ill and TV jobs that I should have had a shot at went elsewhere. If I was the musical sort, I'd have written a country song. Luckily for my neighbors (you should hear how off-key I sing), I decided to stick to what I know and love: journalism and sports.

There were some opportunities out there, but when Greg called, it just felt right. We put together a deal in short time and now I'm excited to be here with him, dishing out the absolute best Patriots coverage out there. I'll be the same as I've always been (that can be good, or bad, depending on your vantage point), just in a different space. I'm hopeful that you'll come along for the ride with me/us. I think that's money (we have a deal, if your friends are interested) and time well spent. 

Now on to football ...

We'll hear from Bill Belichick and select players Tuesday morning. Insert select cliches here. Blah blah blah. Yadda yadda yadda. The words are merely weak foreplay to what really matters: what this team looks like on the field. Practices begin Wednesday, and the pads come on the following Monday. Did Belichick do enough to improve an 8-9 football team? The people who help shape that roster and those that coach up the players believe they are better than they're getting credit for. I've heard that a number of times since the spring. Sorry if that belief is met with a fair bit of skepticism on my end. The Patriots haven't won a playoff game since beating the Rams in the Super Bowl to start 2020. They are 25-26 (including the playoffs) since. You are what your record says you are (sayeth Bill Parcells). Well, then, the Pats record screams middling. 

Part of the problem? While the rest of the league has embraced the offense-first maxim, Bill Belichick continues to invest money and resources in defense, eschewing league trends that show - repeatedly - offense is what wins now.

Fun exercise: name the last Super Bowl winner you considered defense-first. I'll give you mine: the 2015 Denver Broncos, the same Broncos that brutally battered Tom Brady and the Pats in the AFC title game that year and then clamped down MVP Cam Newton in the big game. That was a historically good defense, anchored by Hall of Famers past (DeMarcus Ware) and future (Von Miller). No team has had one of those wins since, including the Pats, who were number 1 in weighted DVOA this past season but, again, won just 8 games. That gets Belichick closer to Don Shula's all-time wins record. Big whoop dee-do. I thought stats were for losers? You win titles with offense, something recognized by Belichick contemporaries Andy Reid, Sean McVay, Bruce Arians and Doug Pederson. That's something the Patriots were able to discern late in their last Super Bowl winning season, abetted by a finally healthy Brady and a power running game. Oh, that and by Jared Goff peeing down his pant leg - or something worse - in the big game.

Can Belichick and the Pats buck that trend in 2023-24? Feels like a long shot, no matter how much you like that defensive group (and I do). No, this will come down to Bill O'Brien rebuilding Mac Jones, or turning Bailey Zappe into a real NFL starter. It will come down to Juju Smith-Schuster becoming something resembling a number one receiver, Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry remembering who they were two seasons ago, and DeVante Parker actually staying healthy (good luck with that). It's up to O'Brien to pull the right levers and over-coach a skill group that is bottom third in the league, maybe lower. The last guy, Matt Patricia, certainly wasn't capable of that. O'Brien is, but that's still a tall task in a division and conference that possesses 8 of the best 10 teams in football. Look it up, but only if you don't get depressed easily.

If O'Brien pulls this off, give him the keys to his own program, or, if you're the Krafts, maybe he gets the keys to this program, if not next year, in the not too distant future. The clock is ticking, and while 8-9/9-8 looks good on franchises like Detroit or Cleveland or Arizona, this one has always believed they were different, and still do, even if 25-and-26 says otherwise.