Patriots training camp is right around the corner. Rookies and injured players report on Friday. Veterans report a week from Tuesday. The first practice is a week from Wednesday, with the first three days not in pads and part of the CBA-mandated acclimation process.
We graded the players off last season here:
Our rankings of them don't really change until we see them on the field for practice and preseason games, and then we release our preseason rankings.
But I thought a fun but meaningful exercise would be to rank the top of the roster by what it would need to look like for the Patriots to truly contend this season.
We know the entire team needs to take a big step off last season, but which players would enable that?
This is not a talent list, or who's the best player. This has to do with how valuable that player is, who would replace them in case of injury and how much of a dropoff would there be?
For example, Kyle Dugger doesn't make this list. It's not a comment on Dugger's talent but rather that they have multiple options to replace him (Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Marte Mapu). If Dugger was lost for the season, would the expectations for this team really change? My answer would be no. Same would go for someone like Deatrich Wise and Josh Uche. Uche is a good player, but a luxury in my eyes. He's a sub-rusher only. The Patriots should be able to replace the production there.
Anyways, on with the list:
10. Ja'Whaun Bentley, LB
2022 rank: 23rd
You can throw all the stats you want at me, and also the fact that Bill Belichick obviously loves him. But the fact remains that Bentley has basically been the starting Mike linebacker for this defense for three years running and in that time, the defense has not been good enough against the better offenses. The Patriots have been slow, and that's because the MLB is slow. That's where it starts.
If the Patriots are to take a step on defense this season and really defend good quarterbacks, Bentley is going to have to take another step. Who else is it going to be at linebacker? Jahlani Tavai? Mack Wilson? They haven't drafted anyone. Hopefully, it's Mapu in time – sooner, rather than later. But for right now, the only hope is Bentley due to Belichick's roster management. You can't be a great defense without having a really good second level. Bentley is the only hope.
9. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
2022 rank: 5th
Yes, right now he's the only real running back but that will not last until opening day. This isn't about Stevenson, it's about the position. Running backs, even good ones, should be easily replaceable. If you're counting on one running back to be a valuable cog in your roster, you're either playing fantasy football or you're delusional. If Stevenson goes down, the Patriots' chances should not change at all. Plug in somebody and go. But Stevenson being a beast would be nice.
8. Hunter Henry, TE
2022 rank: 21st
The Patriots have almost no margin for error on offense because Belichick has left them very thin and with mediocre talent. That means that basically every well-paid offensive player has to make due on their contract, if not exceed it. Thanks to Matt Patricia and Belichick, Henry went from a $14 million player his first season, to $6.5 million in valuation. Henry has to stay on the field and get back to being the TD machine he was in 2021. If he does that, and Mike Gesicki can play off it, that's a very good sign for this offense.
7. David Andrews, C
2022 rank: 2nd
The most underrated and disrespected player on this roster when it comes to his value to this roster. Even with all the issues last year, he was tremendous. Now that the Patriots are back to the old line call season, Andrews can be even better and help Mac Jones in numerous ways. Andrews keys everything up front, the run and pass. If he has another great season and gets more help from the scheme and the tackles, this line could be really good.
6. Juju Smith-Schuster, WR
2022 rank: n/a
He is the receiver making the most money. He is replacing a valuable security blanket for the QB in Jakobi Meyers. If Smith-Schuster doesn't stay on the field and it's productive to a Meyers level, that would be crippling to this offense to the point I'm not sure they could recover if they don't add another potential slot (DeAndre Hopkins). Could Kendrick Bourne do it in theory? Yes. Could Tyquan Thornton help? Yes, in theory. But just from a vibe perspective, the Patriots basically stiffing Meyers — who will have a very productive season for Josh McDaniels — for an outside player who doesn't produce would be emblematic of Belichick's roster struggles that continue to hold this team back, and cause some dissension in the ranks.
5. Christian Gonzalez, CB
2022 rank: n/a
Let's just make this a "One Young Corner" spot. The Patriots have two players, right now, that have the potential to play really good man coverage: Gonzalez and Jack Jones. To play good defense this season, the Patriots have to play good man coverage. One of those two players has to step up and be a very good man corner for 17 games, or the Patriots run the risk of getting exposed again. The Patriots can disguise and put all the safeties on the field as they want. It doesn't mean anything unless the corners play good man coverage, which they haven't done consistently enough since Stephon Gilmore was healthy and on the roster. Would love it to be Gonzalez, but that's a talk task for a rookie against the QBs the Patriots will face.
4. Christian Barmore, DT
2022 rank: 9th
The Patriots have one player up front on defense who is a true matchup nightmare for opposing blockers: Barmore. Judon and Uche are nice, but they get most of their pressure from scheme or just beating a bad right tackle (Uche). Barmore has the ability to beat every single lineman he comes across - he's that good. And, if he's on his game, he will also command double teams that frees up other players to bring pressure. If Barmore is a gamewrecker, even if just on passing downs, his value goes through the roof to this defense.
3. Trent Brown, OT
2022 rank: 20th
We've been over this many times. The potential of this offense varies greatly depending on tackle play. If Brown is a very good left tackle, this offense can make strides. If Brown stinks or is injured, the offense will have to be predicated on mitigating the blocking issues at tackle. That is no way to run a modern NFL offense. This isn't 1995. It can't work. Won't work.
2. Matthew Judon, DE
2022 rank: 1st
I normally wouldn't have Judon this high, but I don't think he has an adequate every-down replacement presently on the roster. Who would it be, Anfernee Jennings or Ronnie Perkins? Good lord. Just imagine how many more resources OCs would put to defending Barmore and Uche if Judon wasn't out there. He's the one blue-chipper on this roster at this point. A roster devoid of top talent can't afford to lose its shinest piece.
1. Mac Jones, QB
2022 rank: 13th
Zappe people will scoff at this because "it worked so well last year with him!" Yeah, good luck with that. Zappe turned into a pumpkin against the Bears and even the coaches saw it. If he was so good and close to Jones, why didn't they just give him a shot at the end of the season? Belichick knew Jones gives them the best chance to win, and it would take Jones falling on his face — which will not happen — for that to occur this year.
Jones has to be the best player on offense — it can't be a guard, tackle or running back, not in today's NFL. Mediocre talent has to be lifted up by the QB for this offense to have a chance. Belichick has stuck with the same formula as the Brady years, he just has disregarded Brady's uniqueness. Jones can do that to a point, but how much? That's the big question. But it's clear that if the Patriots are to make the postseason and possibly win a game, then Jones has to play to a near Pro Bowl level and has to be the best player on this team.