NFL Notebook: 2022 Final Patriots Player Ratings, Part 1 - Over half the roster failed to improve from preseason

Kickstarting our evaluation of the current roster by compiling our season ratings/stats, ranking the players, and then comparing that to where we saw the players before the season started.

A couple of notes on this:

• My stats will be different than anywhere else. I just compile/view them differently. Like a sack is not always a sack for the person that did ultimately sack the QB.  Did someone else really make the play? Was it a gift? Not every touchdown is a touchdown either. If it's just a straight bust by the opponent, that person should not get the same credit for scoring as someone who made a ridiculous catch or run.
• My preseason ranking was where the player was at that time based on practices/preseason games, not a projection for where they would be at the end of the season.
• Their current grade/ranking reflects how they played when they were on the field with very little consideration for injury.
• When you look at the final states/ratings, do not compare scores to other positions — they don't translate. Only compare players within their positional grouping.

Before the season, I grouped the players in certain categories and I said this before embarking on the exercise:

The lack of more positional players (among the top-ranked Patriots) is why the Patriots have been an average team for three years. A lot of players need to pay off this season.

Going from 10-7 to 8-9, that did not happen, and that will come to life here.

Over half the roster either stayed the same or moved down the list, so they failed to improve this season. That's not good.

Also not great: 

• Placed nine veterans in the category "VETERANS WHO NEED TO PLAY OVER THEIR HEADS." Only one, Deatrich Wise, did that. 
• Of the "WHITE CHIPS (LEAGUE AVERAGE) WHO NEED TO PLAY RED (TOP 15 AT POSITION)" ... only one, Mike Onwenu did that, with Jakobi Meyers arguable.
• And of the nine players that "NEED TO GO FROM RED TO PURPLE CHIP (TOP 10)" ... only two, David Andrews and Rhamondre Stevenson, did that. Five players dropped way down from that list.
• Christian Barmore, the lone preseason purple chip (top 5-ish), dropped some due to his absence.
• And no one approached joining Matthew Judon as the lone blue chip (elite).

Most of the problem centered on coaching with the offensive side of the ball, obviously. But the Patriots haven't exactly made a lot of players better in recent years. One feather in the cap: the draft class largely exceeded preseason expectations.

Before we kick off the rankings and then get into the Nickel Package with this weekend's picks, here are the players that dropped off the most:

2022 FINAL PLAYER RANKINGS

INCOMPLETE/INJURED/JUST PASSING BY

(Current rank/Name/Position/Preseason rank)

65    Tae Hayes    CB    NR
64    Jamie Collins    LB    NR
63    Matt Sokol    TE    NR
62    Scotty Washington    TE    NR
61    Lynn Bowden    WR    NR
60    DaMarcus Mitchell    DE    44
59    Sam Roberts    DE    43
58    Kevin Harris    RB    NR
57    JJ Taylor    RB    NR
56    Ty Montgomery    RB    16
55    Pierre Strong    RB    52
54    Chasen Hines    OG    46
53    Justin Herron (traded)    OT    45
52    Lil'Jordan Humphrey    WR    NR

Comments on select players, starting with what we said before the season.

Ty Montgomery, RB/WR: Patriots need him to be great, and if he is, this is one of Belichick's best reclamation projects.

There was a lot of potential there and his dropoff isn't his fault. But, man, this was just a huge whiff the the coaching staff/front office not giving Mac Jones someone reliable as a third-down back.

Chasen Hines (rookie), OG: Intriguing build and feet. Showed enough after injury to get a roster spot. Patriots see something there, and they're right.

Never really appeared, but there weren't many injury issues at guard

Pierre Strong (rookie), RB: Will need to take a big leap in strength and confidence to become the next passing back.

Showed some things and potential, but it's obvious the coaches didn't trust him all that much.

DaMarcus Mitchell (rookie), Edge: Looks like Tarzan and does not play like Jane. Could be the next developmental edge guy, like Trey Flowers. Has size edge on Uche and Jennings down the line.

Never really got much of a chance with few injuries.

Sam Roberts (rookie), End: Unusual body type but makes it work. A more athletic Deatrich Wise, potentially.

Same boat as Mitchell. Patriots were really healthy most of the year on the edge.

By the way, on the tombstone for Matt Patricia's offensive coordinator career, there should be a picture of Lil'Jordan Humphrey with the following:

He thought LJ should play over 50 percent of snaps vs. Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers.

IF YOU'RE YOUNG, THAT'S OK — VETERANS MAY BE AT LAST CHANCE SALOON

51    Shaun Wade    CB    39

Preseason: Made plays in the preseason but the jury is still very much out if he can perform against starters.

Now: The jury convicted. Hard to see much of a future here with some disastrous appearances.

50    Joshuah Bledsoe    S     40

Preseason: Went from off the radar to intriguing talent who might displace some veterans in due time.

Now: Not a ton of opportunity. Will be a big camp for him.

49    Yodny Cajuste    OT    47

Preseason: To this point, has not taken the next step. Will he ever? Time is running out.

Now: The Patriots played Conor McDermott over him. Time is up. What a third-round whiff. Probably wasn't helped by the decline in o-line coaching. Wonder if he pops elsewhere, or if they get a real line coach here.

48    Conor McDermott    OT    NR

How bad was the Patriots' tackle situation? Belichick literally said of McDermott, "Thank God we have him." Speaking of a higher power ... good freaking lord get some tackle talent in here STAT.

47    Cody Davis    ST    50

Preseason: Is Schooler here to replace him at some point?

Now: They actually wanted both of them to play ... what are we doing here.

46    Brenden Schooler    ST    53

Preseason: Looks to be the next in line for a lifetime appointment as a special teams hero that is the apple of Bill Belichick's eye.

Now: All true ... and no one cares.

45    Matthew Slater    ST    49

Preseason: Still great as a gunner and a leader but the number of snaps that happens dwindles every year.

Now: Good season, bad unit, Hall of Fame player that should be retiring.

44    Joe Cardona    ST    48

Preseason: Never been a problem. Means he's doing a good job.

Now: Still mostly solid but there's some slippage there.

43    Brian Hoyer    QB    41

Preseason: Valuable veteran backup who Mac Jones will have to lean on. 

Now: Was in that role and looked good in his one start against the Packers, but sustained a concussion and was not around the QBs after that. Wants to play out the final year of his deal, but I'm guessing the Patriots will have other thoughts at some point.

42    Jake Bailey    P    3

Preseason: Should be a force once again, and this defense might need him to be.

Now: What a dramatic dropoff. Was bad all season, then was suspended as the Patriots appear to be trying to get out of his contract.

41    Bailey Zappe    QB    54

Preseason: Training camp and the preseason revealed his physical skills to be limited. Can process quickly and release is nice, but Patriots should be looking to upgrade the developmental spot.

Now: When some Patriots fans reflect back on Zappe this season, they'll swear they saw Bo Derek. The reality, especially after he was exposed at home by the Bears (who never won again), is closer to Tony Massarotti. Psst ... Zappe was not that good, he just played bad teams at the right time and Matt Patricia actually called playaction plays!

THIS ROSTER IS A DONUT — IT HAS NO MIDDLE

40    Marcus Cannon    OT    NR

Signed off the street and did well in the run game and in short spurts. But the longer he was out there ... yikes.

39    Mack Wilson    LB    29

Preseason: The most talented LB they have ... will they play him more than in just packages?

Now: Um, no. And he couldn't get out of here quick enough.

38    Raekwon McMillan    LB    25

Preseason: Coaches have a lot of faith in him, can he be a difference-maker or will we all be pining for Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins?

Now: Tommy Point for Bedard! They actually did sign Collins back! LOL. Hightower must have been busy.

37    Jonnu Smith    TE    32

Preseason: Patriots will feature him on naked bootlegs to get him going ... will he deliver and do more than that? That a pricey $12.5 million question on an annual basis.

Now: I can't believe they adjusted his contract so now he's back again ... for what?

36    Nelson Agholor    WR    26

Preseason: Patriots have to get a big season from him to score points and compete.

Now: Yeah, none of it happened for Agholor or the team. Not even close. Well, bye.

35    Tyquan Thornton    WR    28

Preseason: Was making gains on a daily basis before his injury. How quickly can he get back up to speed? Patriots are desperate for his speed in all areas of the field.

Now: Flashed at times, but had serious route running issues that have to be cleaned up. Potential is there but wasn't as good a rookie season as we hoped for, or the Patriots needed.

34    Cole Strange    OG    36

Preseason: Definitely flashes some very nice potential, but he has much to learn and to grow into as far as leverage and playing within himself.

Now: About what we thought. He struggled against the bigger, stronger DTs. He did seem to turn a corner late, however. Now time to put on some weight and grow his butt.

33    James Ferentz    C    38

Preseason: Had his best training camp to date and is now a solid center backup. Guard is a different topic.

Now: The new Teddy Karras, just stubbier. Very, very solid backup at all three interior spots.

PURGATORY — JUST IN A WAITING ROOM

32    Jalen Mills    CB    20

Preseason: Patriots are making him a No. 1. For this defense to be good, he has to deliver. Huge question mark.

Now: A healthy, effective Jalen Mills could have helped the Patriots beat more than backups. Didn't happen, but he's not a lost cause.

31    Myles Bryant    CB    30

Preseason: Valuable and smart defensive back who can play any position ... but is he good enough at one? Last seen having a tough time in the slot to finish season. He's back there again.

Now: He's a great backup utility tool, but the Patriots need to be better here to beat good offenses.

30    Carl Davis    DT    27

Preseason: Probably the best two-gapper on the team, and that's valuable here.

Now: He's that and a bag of nuts. Davis chuckled when I told him that I refer to him as the Two-Gap King of New England. He wants t-shirts.

29    Daniel Ekuale    DT    NR

Was suspended to start the year so he wasn't on our radar, but he was a darn good sub rusher in the steps of Adam Butler.

28    Anfernee Jennings    DE    33

Preseason: Made a ton of plays in the preseason against backups. Will he have enough speed against regulars? Huge question.

Now: He can really set an edge and can bring a little pass rush, but that's about it. Hard to envision a full-time role.

27    Isaiah Wynn    OT    24

Preseason: So many questions. Needs to stay on the field, first and foremost.

Now: Yeah, well, he didn't do that and will be out the door come free agency. One of the players that fans love to hate, but when he was on the field, he wasn't that bad compared to the rest of the league. Should have just left him at LT.

26    Kendrick Bourne    WR    35

Preseason: Slowly gained confidence under Josh McDaniels and Mick Lombardi. He's quickly lost it under Matt Patricia and Troy Brown. Can they get him back on the reservation?

Now: The answer to that would be an emphatic NO. The Patriots did wrong by Bourne in so many ways, it's not even funny. Hard to believe that he wants to return here. We'll say this: when he was on the field, he was largely damn good. What an epic fail.

COMING SOON: Part 2, 25-1

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Nothing new on the Bill O'Brien front, but at least there aren't reports of him interviewing elsewhere (that would be a bad sign). Hopefully they're just waiting to announce a deal on Monday, because Belichick really has no other options. Next up: let O'Brien hire a real staff without Belichick trying place cronies on it.

2. I will curse my buddy Chris Gasper for fanning the flames of Tom Brady possibly playing for the Patriots.

I never say never and I wouldn't totally rule it out from Brady's side (although why on Earth would he want to play with this roster?), but ... yeah, I'm sure Belichick is looking to bring back Brady and admitting that he completely screwed everything up by not thinking Brady could play at 43 ...but now Belichick's going to invite Brady to save the Patriots (and prove Belichick can't win without TB12) at 46? It literally makes zero sense.

3. How does former Patriots assistant Chad O'Shea get interviewed by the Jets and Ravens but Belichick never called?

4. Guess we got our answer on which direction Devin McCourty was leaning on retirement:

5. This weekend's playoff picks (last week: 4-2 straight up, 1-5 vs spread — stick to the Pats, Bedahd)

Chiefs (-9.5) over the Jaguars: Andy Reid is a master after byes so I expect a fast start, and these aren't the Chargers.

Eagles (-8) over the Giants: I think Brian Daball will let it all hang out and the Eagles will win but won't cover.

Bills (-5.5) over the Bengals: Cincy's line issues take them out of being a Super Bowl contender, but they'll get a late TD to cover and make it interesting.

Cowboys (+4) over the 49ers: Yeah, I don't know what the hell I'm doing here but rolling the dice on the Dallas pass rush making Brock Purdy a pumpkin, and Dallas getting some big plays against an overrated SF secondary.