Everyone knows Brad Stevens isn’t done.
The Celtics kicked off their offseason with a bit of a shocker, trading Marcus Smart away for Kristaps Porzingis. The move, according to Stevens, was part of a necessary rebalancing of the roster for Boston. But there are still questions about how the roster will work.
A lot of that has been discussed already, but there's more to the equation, including how the Celtics bench will shake out. Right now, here’s a quick look at the depth chart:
- Guards: Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Payton Pritchard
- Wings: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Justin Champagnie
- Bigs: Kristaps Porzingis, Robert Williams, Al Horford, Luke Kornet
That's 11 players currently under contract. They need to add three more before the season begins.
At this point, seven of the guys under contract (White, Brogdon, Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, Williams, Horford) are guaranteed rotation players. Two more (Pritchard, Hauser) have the chance to join the rotation in some capacity.
They can use a couple of those open spots for veteran minimum guys with specific skill sets, like spot-up shooters, just in case.
And the final spot should go to Grant Williams.
This is not going to be an easy thing for Boston to do, and it might just be a temporary fix, but after weighing the pros and cons, I still think Williams returning to Boston is the best option for this upcoming season.
The most obvious reason to keep him is that he’s a good basketball player. Teams are lining up to make an offer to him, and he’ll be worth somewhere around $15 million a year for a reason. At his best, he’s able to hit shots, drive close-outs, and make the right read on offense. Defensively, his versatility allows him to muscle up against bigs but stay in front of wings.
He’s obviously going to be expensive, especially when added to the rest of the group, but it will also be damn near impossible for Boston to find everything Williams does for the team with a $5 million taxpayer mid-level exception -- which, by the way, hard caps Boston at the second apron. Any team that uses the taxpayer MLE can’t go over the second apron at all for any reason.
And I’m not trying to minimize the cost. Everyone knows getting Williams to fit under the second apron, or super-tax line, is going to be tough, including Williams himself who admitted the new CBA “changes the numbers” in this negotiation.
The 11 guys Boston has under contract at the moment, not including Williams, total up to a payroll of $173.2 million dollars. The second apron is set at just under $182.8 million for this upcoming season. When you add in cap charges for not having the full 14-man roster set yet, Boston is $7.5 million away from the second apron.
That means signing Grant Williams to a four-year deal with an average annual value of about $15 million would give him about $13.5 million this season. Boston would be $6 million over the second apron with two more players left to sign.
Obviously, that's not an ideal place to be. If Boston stays over the second apron, they’ll lose their taxpayer MLE. Other, harsher restrictions, like having to match salaries almost exactly or being unable to aggregate two or more outgoing players in a trade, take effect next season.
Their ability to adjust would be limited, for sure. But keeping Williams also allows them to be able to adjust over the course of the season. And because the toughest penalties are a year away, this is the one chance to go all the way in before having to step back a year from now.
Signing Williams to a deal at what amounts to be full mid-level money over the next few seasons makes him very tradeable. This year’s full mid-level is $12.4 million, which is within the 110% salary matching range for the deal I proposed for Williams. Role players like Williams are getting that mid-level money for this exact reason.
To me, this is the one season to go for it. Forget that taxpayer MLE. That's barely worth more than the 10-year veteran minimum. I’d rather find some end-of-the-bench emergency guys on minimum deals than give someone $5 million and handcuff the front office.
If the team absolutely has to get under the second apron, then they should explore other options. Trading Brogdon for a cheaper point guard (why not call Washington back and see if Tyus Jones and his $14 million can be moved?) makes more sense than giving up a versatile bench player like Williams.
Williams has proven he can step in to anchor small lineups, he can play the wing in bigger lineups, and can start or come off the bench. Even if they end up having to trade him next season, I’d rather have one year of him to go for a legitimate title run now than give him up and lose a piece that could help win a playoff game or two down the road.
It’s not pretty out there at all. I know the new CBA has put front offices in a huge bind. But the worst of it is still a year away, which means Boston has one more season to go for it. Sign Williams now and figure it out later. If it works out, Stevens can bring his spreadsheets on the duck boat.
I spent the latest Locked On Celtics podcast laying out the pros and cons of keeping Grant Williams. You can watch it here or subscribe on your preferred podcasting app.