The Celtics are in an interesting position in next week’s NBA draft. They are once again without a first-round pick thanks to their rolling strategy of moving firsts to facilitate more pressing needs, but they do have a valuable pick.
The 35th pick in the draft is in a spot at the top of the second round that is already appealing due to the lack of financial guarantees and players of fairly equal talent to those at picks 25-30. Taking a player in that spot means he can be anything from a camp-invite fighting for a spot, to a two-way player, to a guaranteed deal.
That part of the draft is such a crapshoot that it’s hard to pinpoint who the Celtics should take and who will even be available. There isn’t even a consensus on how the top five will go, so it’s hard to believe anything short of a lucky guess can predict who the Celtics will get at the top of the second round.
How the Celtics use the 35th pick depends on how they envision the rest of their offseason going. The pick could be used before draft night to facilitate a trade, which would end this discussion in a hurry. The Celtics are reportedly pretty active on the trade market and if they can find a taker for Malcolm Brogdon* soon, they could try to pull off a trade under the final few days of the current CBA.
That would mean restrictions on salary matching would not yet be in place, so Boston could work within the 125% salary matching rules rather than the 110% or they could generate a traded player exception to use this summer.
(*The assumption is that Brogdon’s $22 million is the most likely candidate to be moved to help Boston prepare for the new CBA)
If the pick is carried into the draft without a Brogdon trade and not moved, they can go with the intriguing prospects with good tools, or they could try a version of Matt Amodio’s Daily Double hunting on Jeopardy strategy and scan the board for the highest possible reward guys out there.
The typical Celtics strategy would be to look for a player with the right size and some physical gifts, like 6’6” Maxwell Lewis out of Pepperdine. He has a plus wingspan, great athleticism, and is a good catch-and-shoot threat. According to The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie, defense is Lewis’ biggest weakness as he is not only thin for his size, but he’s also prone to distraction and gambling.
Those are teachable skills, though, and breaking a plus-athlete of bad mental habits is part of what it takes to find a second-round diamond in the rough. The training staff can add some muscle to his frame and the coaching staff and veteran players can teach him defensive principles. If he picks them up, then suddenly the Celtics have a potential 3-and-D wing on their hands.
They could decide to go the other way, choosing defense as the elite skill in the draft and trying to develop the offense from there. That's a Danny Ainge special, so we can see if Brad Stevens follows in his footsteps with a player like Rayan Rupert.
The French wing has been playing in New Zealand, and he has a 7’2” wingspan while standing at 6’6”. He’s a high-effort, high-IQ guy who seems to like making plays on the defensive end. According to The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor, Rupert is a streaky shooter who doesn’t like contact. Pulling some more consistency out of him on the offensive end could make him a steal.
The beauty of a plan like this for guys like these is that if they’re selected at 35, they can spend a year on a two-way deal. One element of the new CBA that isn't yet clear is how the new second-round exception can be used, and whether Boston putting their draftee on a two-way allows them to then use the exception to sign him to a deal next summer. That could be an added financial bonus that helps the Celtics navigate a very expensive roster. That part is still TBD.
One key element to finding any of these second-round steals is their mentality. What makes the difference in guys we’ve seen come out of the second round and become big-time players? The answer is almost always their mentality. Sure, all these tools I mentioned are fine, but do they come into this process cocky, or do they have a chip on their shoulder? The difference in talent is so thin in the draft that the right drive and focus could be the difference between making it in the NBA or investing in a Turkish-to-English dictionary for their playing careers.
If the Celtics want to take some more time and see if they can take bigger swings on raw, undeveloped talent, there are a few players worth a lot.
James Nnaji is a 6’10” monster with a 7’7” reach and good instincts as a shot blocker and some good base skills that can translate to an NBA defense. He’s also 18, he only just picked up the game a few years ago, and he has no offensive game whatsoever. He could be a candidate for two years of two-way duty to see how quickly he can pick up some other skills. If they can develop him as a player in the G League, he could step into a frontcourt role as Al Horford ages out.
Again, they can go the other way and look at Tristan Vukcevic, a 6’11” marksman out of Serbia. He has 3-point range but lacks the defensive game to move him further up the draft board.
You don’t draft for need at this point in the draft. The goal is to identify players with a particular skill set and mentality that would suggest they should be higher in the draft, and a flaw that keeps them in that second round that a team feels can be corrected over time.
The Celtics value versatility, so I’m making the safe bet that they will take a shot on a wing at 35 if they don’t trade the pick away. There is always a player in the second round that ranges from useful to steal, and every once in a while turns into a star player. Maybe the Celtics can find one of those guys next week.
