One game, the starting pitching falters, and the Red Sox fall into an early hole they can't climb out of.
The next, the starter struggles and the bullpen does too as Boston drops too far back for any run support to mean anything.
Sometimes, the pitching falls in line only for the offense to go quietly into the night.
Sure, it's only a third of the way into the season. A lot can happen between now and October. This team has shown as much in recent years, lest we forget the 2021 march to the postseason. But the 28-27 Red Sox have not done anything to silence their doubters from before the season, showing nothing that alludes to more than .500 baseball.
It's all been on display in two games against the sub-.500 Reds, who have suddenly become one of hottest teams in baseball with five straight wins after six losses in their prior eight. Boston, meanwhile, is riding the inverse rollercoaster, dropping three straight and seven of nine as part of a 6-7 stretch to close out a 13-13 May.
They say if you're going to stink, stink on the road. Then, you can at least save face in front of your fans. But Boston apparently didn't get the memo. The hometown team is 2-6 in its last eight games in front of the hometown fans, who had their hearts ripped out on back-to-back-to-back nights between Monday's Game 7 Celtics loss at home, Tuesday's oh-so-close miraculous comeback bid in the Sox' 9-8 loss to the Reds and now another failed comeback on Wednesday.
"Yeah, it's been up and down," Alex Cora said. "We've gotta come here tomorrow and find a way to win. I think yesterday, yeah, the last inning was great, but it wasn't a great game. Today, you know, [James Paxton] was good, offensively we did enough and then at one point [Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski] are going to give up runs. They've been outstanding in their roles. Kutter with the walks, then we threw strikes in the seventh, and they got hits. They're human. ... It's one of those that's a tough one. We lost the series, so tomorrow we've got to try to get one."
Tuesday saw Brayan Bello working through the ups and downs of finding his way as a young starter with potentially top-end stuff. The bullpen – Joely Rodriguez, in particular – couldn't pick him up. A pair of throwing errors from Kiké Hernández at short certainly didn't help things, and by the time the bats woke up, it was too little, too late.
Wednesday saw Paxton bounce back with electric stuff after a rough start last week. Big Maple generated 22 swings and misses. His pitch count ballooned in five innings of work, but after allowing four hits and one run with eight strikeouts, the southpaw gave his team a chance, exiting the game with a 3-1 lead. But the Jekyll and Hyde act continued when Crawford and Winckowski couldn't lock it down in relief. Winckowski himself appeared to be in the clear before a Rafael Devers throwing error opened a tough inning for the reliever as Cincinnati took over the game.
"It's tough, right? That's a routine play that we have to make at this level," Cora said. "I always say, you give the opposition more than 27 outs, most of the time, they're going to score and they're going to make you pay. Obviously, that's a play we have to make. We didn't, and it opened the gates for them."
The Sox are fifth-worst in baseball with 35 errors. Hernández (11) leads all Major League shortstops, and he's got a three-error cushion in the AL. Boston was well-below league average with 37 double-plays turned, the third-fewest in baseball entering Wednesday. Their minus-17 defensive runs saved above average sat the fourth lowest in the Majors at the start of the day.
“We’re not a good defensive team. The numbers don’t lie,” Cora told reporters pregame Wednesday. "We have a pitching staff that doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff. We get to two strikes and we induce weak contact, we have to make the play. When we do that, we’re really good. When we’re not making plays, we struggle.”
There was Justin Turner waving at a changeup on a wing and a prayer with the bases jammed with two gone in the bottom of the seventh, squandering a gifted opportunity to regain control of the game.
Boston was 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position.
The Red Sox have either been one defensive play, one lockdown relief outing or one meaningful swing of the bat away for what feels like weeks.
Consider the struggles at home in recent weeks. Paxton and Chris Sale each did enough for wins against the Cardinals, but ninth-inning collapses from the defense and Kenley Jansen skewered the positive results, on top of a lack of run support for Sale. It all fell apart for two-straight blowouts against St. Louis and Seattle.
Boston managed to put it all together to close out the home swing against the Mariners and start the west coast trip strong in San Diego. But a rough start for Corey Kluber and a goose egg on the scoreboard two Sundays ago torpedoed the winning streak in the first of a four-game skid against the Padres and Angels that again saw the offense let down pitching before the bats couldn't convert signs of life. Then there's the series against the D-Backs before this current homestand. It all came together in Friday's 7-2 win before the pitching overcame a lack of run support on Saturday. In Sunday's slip-up, it was another case of a poor start spotting the Red Sox a big hole early that they couldn't climb out of.
It's a maddening repetition of seemingly one step forward and two steps back in the month of May.
Again, it's still somewhat early in the season. At the same time, the Sox have been so close a lot of the time, but unless it all falls perfectly into place, they're likely nothing more than a slightly better-than-.500 ballclub.
For a team that's supposed to be in 'win-now' mode, that's simply not enough.