NHL Notebook: Who's at the top of the Conn Smythe Trophy ballot?

With the Florida Panthers off to the Stanley Cup Final for just the second time in franchise history, a pair of Cats are the favorites for the Conn Smythe Trophy. 

The last time the Panthers made it to the last dance of the season was 1996. Their first-round opponent during the impetus of the rat-filled run in 1996 was also the Bruins. Since staving off one final blow from Boston in the 2023 first round, Florida has mowed down the Maple Leafs and the Hurricanes. 

There's an element of "Ah, well, no one was stopping Florida," when thinking about the Bruins' choke, given the context. At the same time, Brad Marchand had the series on his stick in Game 5, there were multiple leads in Game 6 and they led with a minute to go in Game 7. The B's were one win away, maybe even just one goal, but alas.

It hasn't been complete dominance for the Panthers, though, despite what the win column might say. Six games through their first three rounds have gone to overtime. Game 1 against Carolina took four. Three more games have been one-goal differences in regulation, and Game 4 against the Canes was seconds from overtime. You can almost see what Rod Brind'Amour was trying to say when he claimed the Canes "weren't swept." Even if he stumbled through his logic, it was there.

Florida's return of the rats has strengthened as the playoffs have gone along. It's almost as if the plastic rodents and another rat on the ice have fed off each other. 

Matthew Tkachuk has had the rest of the teams in the NHL envisioning what kind of franchise-altering trade they can make. It is a copycat league, after all. The deal for Tkachuk in exchange for Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar could not have worked out better for Florida, while Calgary saw meager returns in Year 1. 

Tkachuk's been the heartbeat of the Panthers in these playoffs. As Jeff Marek harped on in both the "32 Thoughts" podcast and the "Jeff Marek Show," the first round quickly became Matthew Tkachuk versus the Boston Bruins. He had five goals and six assists in the seven games against the Bruins as his line with Sam Bennett took over. 

Individual dominance has continued, even if the goals weren't coming against Toronto (5a in 5GP). Against the Canes, Tkachuk had four goals and an assist in the sweep. Three of the goals were game-winners. One ended the four-overtime marathon, the other another OTGWG before his second of Game 4 sealed the sweep with seconds remaining on the clock off a dazzling display of patience around the net front. It was his fourth game-winning goal of the postseason. 

He's been as clutch and as valuable to his team as it gets, even outside of the production. Tkachuk dragged Florida into the fight in the first round. He's consistently brought the right blend of energy and skill and put on forechecking clinics. The Cats have over a 60 percent share of high-danger scoring chances with Tkachuk on the ice at 5-on-5 in the playoffs, outscoring teams 14-5 (11-5, high-danger). It's making the Ottawa Senators wonder what Brady Tkachuk might do once they make it back to the postseason. 

But what about Bob?

Tkachuk isn't even the betting favorite right now, and that's where Sergei Bobrovsky comes in, right now. 

I'll admit I was hard on Bobrovsky in the first round, but I still think it was justified. I still feel the Bruins didn't do enough to make life difficult for Bobrovsky as the series went on. He had an .891 save percentage and a 3.94 goals-against average. 

But since, Bobrovsky has done his best George Vezina impression, playing like the $10-million dollar man Florida thought it was getting. After May 1, the 34-year-old leads the playoffs with a ridiculous .954 save percentage and 1.51 GAA. 

For the playoffs on the whole, Bob leads the league with 19.7 goals saved above expected. That's over 10 clear of second-place Igor Shesterkin (8.8), who's been eliminated for a month. His .894 high-danger save percentage is second among remaining goaltenders, behind Adin Hill's .904. 

Only four goaltenders have won the Conn Smythe since the 2004-05 lockout: Cam Ward (2006), Tim Thomas (2011), Jonathan Quick (2012) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (2021). Ward had a .920 save percentage and 2.14 GAA, Thomas had a .940 and a 1.98, Quick stood at .946 and 1.41 and Vasilevskiy had a .937 and 1.90. Bobrovsky, currently with a .935 save percentage and 2.21 is right around the neighborhood. 

Only nine wingers have won it, but Tkachuk has done enough to separate himself. Bobrovsky would be the 18th goaltender to win it, all-time. He's also set himself up wonderfully.

Here are the top 12 odds (via FanDuel) at the time of writing on Friday, May 26:

Sergei Bobrovsky +200
Matthew Tkachuk +350
Jack Eichel +410
Mark Stone +700
Jonathan Marchessault +1300
Adin Hill +1900
Chandler Stephenson +3600
Roope Hintz +3600
Alex Pietrangelo +4100
William Karlsson +4100
Jake Oettinger +4600
Joe Pavelski +4900

Should Vegas close it out against Dallas, Jack Eichel has as strong of a case as any Golden Knight, leading his team in scoring with six goals and 11 helpers for 17 points. It feels like Eichel is finally, really, truly establishing himself in these playoffs, showcasing his playmaking and scoring abilities and his penchant to take over games in any situation. Makes it look effortless at times. He averages more ice time than Mark Stone and Jonathan Marchessault, and he has produced more. Hill could have an outside shot with his .938 save percentage (fourth) and 6.4 goals saved above expected (third), but he was not the starter until halfway through the second round, which is likely a knock against him. 

If Dallas can pull off the comeback, you'd have to imagine one or two of the three Stars listed above would skyrocket, especially Roope Hintz. It's criminal how low the current playoff scoring leader is, although if he doesn't reach the SCF, then he's out of the running, of course. Should the Stars somehow pull off the miraculous, it'll need to be with the help of Hintz, who has 10 goals and 24 points in 17 games this postseason. After two games without a point, he had two helpers in Game 4 to help keep Dallas alive. He's goalless in three straight, but he's come up large twice before with goals in Game 7 against Seattle and the clinching Game 6 against Minnesota. 

Sweeney a finalist for GM of the Year

Another Bruin joins the running to take home some hardware at the NHL Awards next month. Don Sweeney earned a nomination for General Manager of the Year (voted on by GMs at the end of the regular season) this week, along with Dallas' Jim Nill and Florida's Bill Zito.

Sweeney took home the award for the 2018-19 season as well. You might have heard, but the Bruins reached Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final at home that year. 

It was a busy 2022-23 for Sweeney, going back to hiring Jim Montgomery as Bruce Cassidy's successor. A lot's been made of Cassidy's success and playoff run in Vegas, but Montgemery still deserves credit for the regular season Boston had. The front office sought him out, too. It is a regular-season award, after all. Sweeney had more tidy business as well, bringing back Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci for this season as well as trading for and eventually signing Pavel Zacha, who heavily factors into the outlook of the next core. 

There was the busy trade deadline, acquiring Garnet Hathaway, Dmitry Orlov and Tyler Bertuzzi, even with Boston's cap constraints. The cherry on top was locking up David Pastrnak. 

As hard as it is to ignore the Bruins' flameout, Sweeney did his job to set the table for success as best he could. It might not have proven to be the right mix, but again, with it being based on the regular season, he might just be the favorite for the award.

Is Evan Gold an option in Pittsburgh?

Elliotte Friedman mentioned in his latest "32 Thoughts" blog that Bruins assistant GM Evan Gold could be under consideration for the Penguins' general manager opening: "Lots of names in the Pittsburgh search got out. Here are two more: Dallas Stars Assistant GM Scott White and Boston Bruins Assistant GM Evan Gold."

A slew of names have come out in connection to Pittsburgh recently, whether it be Carolina assistant Eric Tulsky, Tampa assistant Mathieu Darche, former Sabres GM and Pittsburgh assistant Jason Botterill and former Arizona GM John Chayka. 

Gold fits the mold for Fenway Sports Group. He's younger and would be an "untraditional" hire. He's never played more than high school hockey, but he's been Sweeney's right-hand man, especially when it comes to the salary cap. The resident cap guru, he was Boston's director of legal affairs for hockey operations before his promotion to assistant GM a few years back. To my knowledge, it's the first his name has come up in these types of conversations. Maybe FSG just wanted to pick his brain or vet him for a potential role in the supporting cast. Feels like there's always a year or two (or more) of this type of noise before there's serious consideration or an actual move. 

Young, analytically inclined folks like Tulsky, Chayka and Kyle Dubas very much fit FSG's bill. Dubas, expectedly, skyrocketed to the top of their list. 

Calgary names Conroy GM

The Flames officially named Craig Conroy as their next general manager, the next step in an intriguing offseason for them after Brad Treliving left them high and dry and they made the right call to part ways with Darryl Sutter. 

Calgary has some major, major decisions on the horizon after next season. Mikael Backlund, Tyler Toffoli, Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev, among others, will be unrestricted free agents. Conroy talked about not letting a repeat of the Johnny Gaudreau situation happen again. 

Backlund sure feels like captain material there. Reports indicate he wants the 'C.' But what if Toffoli or Lindholm aren't pleased with the direction the Flames take? They would not want to lose them for nothing in free agency, as Conroy alluded to. Toffoli is a noted "Former future Bruin." It felt like he was on Boston's trade radar for years while he was in Los Angeles. Hanifin is in that category, somewhat, as well, going back to the buzz around the local kid and Boston College product during his draft year. The B's are pretty set on the wing and defense, though.

So what about Lindholm? The Bruins are in need of a future first-line center, conveniently. What's not convenient is the contract he'd be in search of (perhaps similar to Bo Horvat in the eight-year, $8 million neighborhood). With the cap expected to see nice bumps in coming years, the contract might not be as big of a hangup, but the price tag in trade talks would be quite a snag. As we know, the cupboards in Boston aren't exactly running over with picks and prospects. Still, it makes for something to have simmering on the back burner of the hot stove offseason.