The Patriots will conduct their first optional full-team workout on Monday, in less than a week. Up until now, the involvement of the coaches has been limited according to the NFL's offseason rules.
The Patriots started their offseason program on April 17th. The first two weeks were strength and conditioning. Starting May 1, for three weeks, coaches could be on the field but there were no helmets, and there was no offense vs. defense. Basically, it was a lot of teaching and routes on air.
Monday starts the four-week OTA/mini-camp portion of the offseason program. Three weeks of up to 10 OTA practices, plus a mini-camp. No pads.
Basically, not much has happened up until now. The media is scheduled to have access to practice on May 25, June 2, June 8 and June 12-14. Of course, with the Patriots, that schedule can and often does change at the last minute.
Next week, the competition takes a step up. Looking at the roster and theorizing what might happen is fun, but when it comes to the Patriots, everything is decided on the practice field. The Patriots do not make leaps of faith, especially when it comes to displacing veteran depth. Basically, the coaches need to see a younger/cheaper option show that they are better than a veteran — or at least can get there by the end of camp — before Belichick's trade/cut mind starts to imagine different possibilities, and how that might buy some more room under the cap.
Here are the most endangered veterans on the defensive side, what needs to happen for them to be displaced, and our estimation of the chances for that.
EDGE
Safe: Matthew Judon.
Fairly safe: Josh Uche.
Competition: Uche vs. Keion White.
Skinny: This is one of those, "Who the hell knows?" situations. The odds are strong that not much changes in the front seven in general, but let's give you an out-of-the-box scenario/situation.
Uche is heading into the final year of his deal, coming off double-digit sacks for the first time. As it stands today, he is only a pass rusher — they don't trust him to set the edge, and that has been the right decision on film. That certainly has value. The odds are good the Patriots play this out as-is — as Belichick has gotten older, he's been more resistant to change, especially with his defense.
But here's what might happen under the old-school, ruthless, brilliant Belichick of yesteryear. If White is as good as they think he is, with the Patriots at least telling people they considered him at 14 (I'm going to withhold my opinion and go with the thinking that maybe they're right), then that means he should be a force in camp and make a run at a full-time role. If White is a better Deatrich Wise in that he can defend the run and is a force as a pass rusher, Belichick would put White on the field a lot, and that would mean Uche (and Wise) are no longer as valuable and may be unneeded.
First two downs: DE Matthew Judon, DT Lawrence Guy, NT Davon Godchaux, DE Keion White
Passing situations: Judon, Christian Barmore, White or Wise, Uche/Anfernee Jennings/Ronnie Perkins.
If Uche has another double-digit sack year in his current role, someone who doesn't prioritize defending the run is going to pay him a truckload in free agency, and the Patriots would only be in line for a third-round comp pick in 2025 — that's if the Patriots aren't going to sign any free agents of their own with $120 million in cap space. If they do, which you would expect them to (maybe a QB), then that means they get nothing for Uche. That's just Joe Thuney-level dumb, and something that Belichick would never let happen 15 years ago.
So there is a world, especially in Belichick's past, where White could be a key piece that enables them to get something (and more) for Uche now, if their hotshot draft pick is truly a fit for today's NFL.
No, I don't see it happening.
Odds White wins job and displaces Uche: 10 percent.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Safe: Probably everyone.
Competition: Christian Barmore vs. Lawrence Guy.
Skinny: We thought Barmore would be moving into a full-time role last season, but he struggled with injuries and never got the chance to make that push. Could it happen this year? Yes, it could.
Guy has been awesome in his time here, but he is on the downside of his career and the Patriots would pick up $3 million in cap space should they move on.
The problem? They have added very little in the way of youth at the interior line spots. They just have a bunch of role players for the most part. But they have enough pieces around (Carl Davis, Daniel Ekuale, Sam Roberts) to make things work if they take out a piece like Guy — with Barmore getting most of the snaps.
But, again, Belichick would have to be more bold than he has been in recent years, especially on this side of the ball.
Odds Barmore wins job and displaces Guy: 30 percent.
LINEBACKER
Safe: Ja'Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Marte Mapu, Chris Board.
Competition: Not much that would affect things.
Skinny: Belichick has his assignment-sure guys, and he's not going to move off them — not without a high draft pick waiting in the wings. Mapu should get a chance to pick up passing/package snaps. Board too. So you're talking about Raekwon McMillan, Mack Wilson and Calvin Munson could be displaced. In the end, it doesn't mean much for the team or the cap.
Odds something changes at LB: 0.1 percent.
CORNERBACK
Safe: Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones.
Competition: Jack Jones vs. himself.
Skinny: It would be a huge disappointment if Gonzalez isn't a top 2 cornerback on this team from the start. Then the dominoes in the entire secondary begin and end with Jack Jones, who ended last year suspended by the team. From Jonathan Jones' recent comments to reporters, it doesn't sound like Jack's issues are totally behind him.
“Just to be there for him,” Jones said when asked about Jack. “Anything that he needs, whether it be on the field or off the field, just to show him what it is to be a New England Patriot cornerback, player, just a professional in this league. And just watch him continue to grow. Heading into Year 2, you’re just going to see growth.”
Jones has the talent and potential to pair with Gonzalez to give the Patriots two young talented CBs to build off of. If he grabs that role, that means Jonathan could be freed up for free safety, and Marcus could be the next slot.
What will happen? Sounds like the Patriots are curious about that themselves.
Odds Jack Jones does not step up: 33 percent.
SAFETY
Safe: Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers.
Likely safe: Kyle Dugger.
Competition: Jalen Mills et al at free safety and Joshua Bledsoe vs. Dugger
Skinny: A lot of puzzle pieces need to be fit, starting with free safety after Devin McCourty's retirement. That could come from Jonathan Jones, Mills, Bledsoe, Myles Bryant and possibly Phillips.
Dugger is in a similar boat to Uche, as they are in the final years of their contracts. The overwhelming odds are nothing changes, and safeties aren't paid like pass rushers in free agency so Dugger would seem to be the easier player to retain.
But with so many options at strong safety/box linebacker — including Mapu — it can't totally be ruled out that the Patriots think they have enough pieces and try to get more for Dugger now by unloading him.
Odds Patriots sell high on Dugger: 25 percent.
