EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
BOSTON CELTICS VS. MIAMI HEAT
Series schedule: All games at 8:30 p.m. on TNT
Game 1: Wednesday, 5/17, Boston
Game 2: Friday, 5/19, Boston
Game 3: Sunday, 5/21, Miami
Game 4: Tuesday, 5/23, Miami
Game 5: Thursday, 5/25, Boston
Game 6: Saturday, 5/27, Miami
Game 7: Monday, 5/29, Boston
HOW THEY GOT HERE:
Boston: Beat Atlanta 4-2, beat Philadelphia 4-3
Miami: Beat Milwaukee 4-1, beat New York 4-2
PLAYOFF RANKS:
Boston: 2nd Offense (118.1 ORtg), T-6th Defense (111 DRtg), 2nd Net (+7.1)
Miami: 5th Offense (115.7 ORtg), T-6th Defense (111 Drtg), 4th Net (+4.7)
PLAYOFF STATS:
Boston: EFG%: 57.6, FT Rate: 21.8%, TOV% 12.3, OReb% 25.3
Miami: EFG%: 54.5, FT Rate: 25.5%, TOV% 12.6, OReb% 26.6
PLAYOFF SHOOTING:
Boston:
2pt%: 56.2, Restricted Area%: 69.2, Paint (non-RA)%: 42.5, mid-range%: 43.5
3pt%: 39.5, LCorner%: 58.2%, RCorner%: 40.4, Above The Break: 37.3%
Miami:
2pt%: 54.1, Restricted Area%: 64.7, Paint (non-RA): 48%, mid-range%: 42.2
3pt%: 36.8, LCorner%: 34.5, RCorner%: 37.5, Above The Break: 37.2
WHAT I’M MOST WORRIED ABOUT
1: Jimmy Butler
We’re still not 100% sure about how healthy he’ll be, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be 100% for the series.
Doesn’t matter.
Butler is crafty enough to find ways to score and enough of a force to make defenders make mistakes that lead to assists or fouls. He’s capable of doing a lot of damage no matter what percentage he is on the floor.
2: Erik Spoelstra
He’s an elite head coach who constantly squeezes blood from a rock. He throws everything at teams and then whittles it down to more precise things that just always seem to work. If Boston is slow to recognize what’s happening, it could be a problem.
3: A step backwards
I’m not gonna lie, this quote from Malcolm Brogdon on Tuesday bothered me.
“I think the guy we followed all season, our leader is Al Horford. But I think he's going to continue to lead us. There's a point today in practice where guys were — it was a little light. Practice was light and guys were a little loose and Al brought us together in the middle of practice and just told us to tighten it up. But I think it's those constant reminders from our leader that's going to help us stay poised, start the series poised, and really locked in.”
On the surface, it’s a somewhat inspirational quote about Horford locking everyone in.
However, I’m stuck on the “practice was light and guys were a little loose” part. Things were going so light that Horford felt the need to focus the guys? In the ONE practice before the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals?
I don’t like that one bit. But I’m willing to save full judgment for after Game 1 to see if this is really a story or not.
The Celtics are much better than the Heat. They have matchups advantages all over the floor except with Bam Adebayo and, maybe, Jimmy Butler if he’s in full playoff mode. They are better at every other spot and off the bench, player-wise.
The worst thing the Celtics can do is believe that and think this will be easy. If they think it’ll be easy, it won’t be. If they think they need to bust their butts to beat Miami, it will be easy.
WHAT I’M MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT
The talent gap
Boston is by far the better team. Fanduel has them a -105 to win the championship. Miami is +1600 right now. Everyone knows Boston is the better team. Miami beat New York while shooting 30.6% from 3, but that's not going to work against Boston. Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, and Kevin Love all shot 28.6 or less from deep.
Miami shot 45% against Milwaukee, which shows they have it in them to get hot, so they have to be respected. They do not have to be feared, per se, from deep because it doesn’t seem sustainable against good defense.
HOW MIAMI WINS
It starts with Butler being healthy and on a Terminator 2-type mission to win at all costs. He came back down to earth a little after his ankle injury against the New York Knicks, but he still averaged more than 25 points per game after that.
That's actually acceptable production from Butler. If he only averages 25 against Boston, then he and Jaylen Brown will cancel each other out and Boston is then even heavier favorites.
However, Butler has gravity, and he can still find his way into the paint for fouls even when he’s not blistering hot from the field. If he’s getting to the line 10, 11, 12 times a game, then that means Boston’s perimeter players are in foul trouble, and that would mean Boston is as well.
Butler has the ability to drop dimes, too, so any overzealous help will be met with an open 3-pointer from the player someone just left on the perimeter. Boston has to be careful to not over-help.
When Miami is at their best, Butler is driving, scoring, drawing fouls, and getting his teammates involved. On the perimeter, guys are knocking down shots in bunches. Defensively, they are a connected group in either man-to-man or zone, baiting players into driving into help and then ripping the ball away or taking charges.
This team thrives on the confidence Butler gives them. They feed off it like a pack of lions on a downed wildebeest. Take that confidence away and Miami is a pedestrian team.
ABOUT THE ZONE DEFENSE
The first thing that popped into my head when it was officially Boston vs. Miami was that the Celtics will have to deal with a lot of zone defense. That's partly because Miami plays more zone than anyone by a mile, and that the Celtics have historically struggled with zone defenses, at least a little more than other teams, it seems.
Boston is the more talented team, and the Heat have a lot of defensive holes that can be attacked. So switching to a zone from time to time will be a tactic the Heat use in order to throw Boston off.
“We can't pass up open shots and we have to have great spacing,” Joe Mazzulla said when asked Tuesday about facing the Miami Zone. “People play zone to slow you down, we have to play just as fast.”
Miami gets creative with its zones. It’s not just a 2-3 or 3-2. They will start their top two guys in a sort of early man-to-man coverage and slide into their zone spots based on which way the defense goes.
This eliminates the picks teams like to set at the top of the zone to get shooters into some space for good looks. It can look like man-to-man defense at first glance, but then after one action it sets into a zone. Payton Pritchard hit the shot in this clip, but it has the potential to take a few seconds off the clock and cause the offense to try to regroup.
“You just got to be aware, offensive awareness has to be key,” Brown said. “I think that's something that we've all grown, that's something Joe has emphasized throughout the year, offensive awareness, being able to make reads, being able to see what teams are in and read it on the fly. We got to be highly aware, recognize what coverage they are in and then play the game the way you know how.”
One way the Celtics can combat that once they recognize it is to send a fake screener (called a “ghost screen”) and then send the actual screener after the Heat react. It’s almost like a football team sending a player in motion to try to decipher a defensive coverage.
The goal for busting the zone is to either (a) get wide-open looks by finding gaps along the perimeter or (b) by getting the ball into the middle, collapsing the zone because everyone will react, and then passing out to shooters or backdoor cutters from there. The Celtics have options for doing that, including getting Al Horford or Marcus Smart into the teeth of it and trusting them to make plays or using one of their new weapons to find seams to attack.
"I think I actually am a great fit to play against a zone defense,” Brogdon said. “I penetrate, make good decisions with the ball. Then I shoot the ball well. Honestly we have five or six guys on the team that can do that. Adding another one of myself is a huge plus."
The Heat do not have the guys to guard Boston 1-on-1. There are too many weak points to attack all over the floor. I expect a lot of zone, even unconventional ones like Bam Adebayo on Jayson Tatum in box-and-1 coverage with four teammates zoned up behind him. If they want to throw length and strength at Tatum, dropping the other four guys into a zone to take away cross-court passes and drives is a great way to do it.
By the way, the counter to that would be screening up high for Tatum with Brown or Smart and either forcing the zone to come way up to pick that up or let Tatum get into space with a head of steam.
HOW BOSTON WINS
It starts with their defense and forcing misses and turnovers. The Heat protect the ball well, but if Boston can get some early live-ball turnovers and pile up some points, that will put early pressure on the Heat offense.
More importantly, Boston has to turn the misses into transition opportunities. There's no better way to blow up whatever creative defensive plan Spoelstra has than to get out into transition and force them to pick guys up. Boston has to play at a fast pace for the whole series. Walking the ball up will be death.
Robert Williams will be key. He not only has to protect the rim, he has to rebound and start the break. He has to avoid foul trouble while being at the rim to protect against Butler drives and still getting out to his assignment on kick-outs.
In the half court, Boston has to be smart about not falling into Miami traps. Don’t get too deep on drives because Miami will invite Tatum and Brown down the lane, only to shut it off and take away outlets and force turnovers. The Celtics have to drive under control, keep their heads up, and make the right reads in the paint. Awareness is the key, because Miami will try to jump passing lanes and take charges. Play under control.
If Boston is moving the ball, driving and kicking, and generating open looks, they will win. If their defense flows into their offense and they can pile up some runs, they will win going away.
HOW I THINK IT WILL GO
Boston should win this and do so easily. Boston at their best vs. Miami at their best should result in Boston winning in four or five games.
But Miami has the potential for a Jimmy Butler win, a Bam Adebayo win, a fluke shooting win, and a Spoelstra-coached win. That doesn’t even take into account a Boston-steps-in-it loss … all of which gives Miami plenty of opportunity to win this series.
So now we’re getting into a matter of trust.
Do I trust that these guys have learned over the past couple of rounds to put aside the things that cost them? Do I trust that Tatum’s shooting funks are a thing of the past? Do I trust in the talent to shine through? Do I trust that last season’s Conference Finals showed them how close you can get to screwing up a good thing?
In the end, I think Boston is too good for all of those losses to happen in one series. We might see one or two. We might even see a third. But I just can’t see THIS Heat team, with no obvious defensive assignment for Tatum much less Tatum AND Brown, and with its unreliable shooting, and with the wildly obvious holes on defense that can be attacked without mercy, to win four games this series.
They shouldn’t win more than one, but I’m not falling into that trap again.
Celtics in 6.
