The Patriots will conduct their first optional full-team workout on Monday, in less than a week. Up until now, the involvement of the coaches has been limited according to the NFL's offseason rules.
The Patriots started their offseason program on April 17th. The first two weeks were strength and conditioning. Starting May 1, for three weeks, coaches could be on the field but there were no helmets, and there was no offense vs. defense. Basically, it was a lot of teaching and routes on air.
Monday starts the four-week OTA/mini-camp portion of the offseason program. Three weeks of up to 10 OTA practices, plus a mini-camp. No pads.
Basically, not much has happened up until now. The media is scheduled to have access to practice on May 25, June 2, June 8 and June 12-14. Of course, with the Patriots, that schedule can and often does change at the last minute.
Next week, the competition takes a step up. Looking at the roster and theorizing what might happen is fun, but when it comes to the Patriots, everything is decided on the practice field. The Patriots do not make leaps of faith, especially when it comes to displacing veteran depth. Basically, the coaches need to see a younger/cheaper option show that they are better than a veteran — or at least can get there by the end of camp — before Belichick's trade/cut mind starts to imagine different possibilities, and how that might buy some more room under the cap.
Here are the most endangered veterans on the offensive side, what needs to happen for them to be displaced, and our estimation of the chances for that.
RUNNING BACK
Safe: Rhamondre Stevenson.
Competition: James Robinson vs. Kevin Harris.
Skinny: Robinson, 25, was signed as the "veteran" option to replace Damien Harris, 26. He was, for whatever reason, deemed too expensive at $1.8 million on a one-year deal with the Bills (my opinion: Harris was one of those too opinionated in regards to the offense, but also durability issues). Robinson is the same price but not as high a ceiling. Mostly likely, the Patriots will keep all three, especially if injuries are an issue this summer, but if Harris is clearly the better player, releasing Robinson would save $1.5 million.
Odds Harris wins job and displaces Robinson: 55 percent.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
RECEIVER
Safe: Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton.
Competition: Kendrick Bourne vs. rookie Demario Douglas; DeVante Parker vs. rookie Kayshon Boutte.
Skinny: Bourne is another Team Mac guy which probably means he's part of the thin ice brigade. His departure via trade or release would net the Patriots $5 million in cap space. Douglas is a very intriguing rookie, but a late-round pick earning a huge role in his first season here really doesn't happen. Malcolm Mitchell was the best recent example and he didn't hit until the second half of his rookie season.
Cutting or trading Parker would net $6 million in cap space. Getting rid of Bourne and Parker are two viable moves, which makes not investing more in a draft receiver even more puzzling. Prime Bill definitely would have set this up.
Odds Douglas wins job and displaces Bourne: 30 percent. The actual odds are longer, but Belichick might be motivated to just getting rid of the former dog house inhabitant and his sometimes pointed comments.
Odds Boutte wins job and displaces Parker: 5 percent. Boutte has enough red flags that the team is going to need a year or more to feel comfortable handing anything over to him.
Plot twist ... If the Patriots trade for a receiver, say Denver's Jerry Jeudy, what would happen?
This is the more likely scenario to me, and it probably wouldn't happen until camp. I could see Belichick getting on the phone with Sean Payton and discussing how a change for both players could benefit each club.
To me, Bourne would clearly be the one out in this scenario. Play similar positions.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
OFFENSIVE TACKLE
Safe: Riley Reiff, Calvin Anderson. Rookie Sidy Sow, if he's a tackle.
Competition: Trent Brown vs. Anderson, Reiff, Yodny Cajuste, Connor McDermott, Sow.
Skinny: It's a mild upset Brown is even still here, and that $10 million in cap space if traded will be hanging over his head in Belichick's eyes.
Anderson has the best chance at showing he can play LT. Reiff, Cajuste and Sow will be facing off on the right side. Both Reiff and Anderson were guaranteed $4 million in salary, so while that doesn't guarantee a spot if they're terrible, it's probably keeping them as veteran backups — and they play multiple positions.
To make Brown expendable, someone has to demonstrate they can start at left tackle. Anderson is the only one with a real shot in my opinion. Cajuste would very much be a dark horse (has the skills, but the light hasn't gone on).
Then it's a free-for-all at right tackle.
Odds Anderson beats out Brown: 40 percent.
Given the pay disparity, and Brown's spotty track record here, Anderson just needs to show that he can be an average starter on the left side to get Belichick's wheels turning. If Anderson is solid, and Reiff/McDermott can hold down RT until Sow is ready, then Belichick could make a move:
LT: Anderson
RT: Reiff then Sow
Swing OT: McDermott/Cajuste
Nobody knows: Andrew Stueber.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
CENTER
Competition: David Andrews vs. rookie Jake Andrews.
Skinny: This would be a surprise but ... after what happened with Logan Mankins and Shaq Mason, would anyone really be that shocked? And this would be another move against Team Mac, and towards starting fresh on offense.
The Patriots taking a center first in their run of three interior draft picks has caused some in the NFL to wonder about the future of the 31-year-old Andrews, whether that's a possible retirement or Belichick just moving on (Andrews has missed 25 percent of the snaps 2 of the past 3 years, and he missed all of 2019).
Patriots have a long list of starting rookie offensive linemen, from Bryan Stork, Tre' Jackson, Joe Thuney to Mike Onwenu ... heck, even David Andrews started as a rookie as an undrafted free agent.
Odds JA wins job and displaces DA: 49 percent.
I think this is one of the most intriguing competitions of the summer.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
QUARTERBACK
Competition: Mac Jones vs. Bailey Zappe.
Skinny: This has been talked about so much this offseason, I don't think I really need to present anything. Everyone knows the deal.
Odds Zappe wins job and displaces Jones before the season: 25 percent.
Do I think certain people in the building would like to see this? Absolutely (cough, JJ, cough). Do I think it's possible? Sure, yes. But Zappe is going to have to clearly win the job, and Jones is going to have to lose it for this to be OK by the Krafts. I'm not going to dismiss that happening, but Jones is the much better QB. It's not close, if he's playing well, which I think he will.
Odds Zappe wins job and displaces Jones during the season: 40 percent.
I think it would have to be an in-season thing where the Patriots start slow, Belichick looks for a spark (aka SCAPEGOAT), turns to Zappe, the team starts winning and Mac is Bledsoe'd. This is as much about the Patriots and the schedule as it is about Jones.
If the Patriots get off to a fast start, Jones is going to get a lot of credit (not as much as Genius Bill being back, but still), and he's not going anywhere.
If the team gets off to a slow start, Bill will get another pass and Jones will have track marks all over his back.
