It's been said so often that it's become cliche around these parts, even in this corner:
Bill Belichick uses the first month of the season as an extension of the preseason to work out the kinks, figure out what he has. It's more important how they play after Thanksgiving than it is in the first month.
That's been true for the most part, and a soft middle of each season the past few years — if not the entire schedule — had allowed Belichick to take his time in camp, not overwork the boys, and give them multiple days off. We've been on board with the overall approach. Even if the results weren't there, the approach wasn't necessarily wrong. The Patriots' failure to do much of anything since the middle of the 2019 season has been their inability to execute down the stretch — not any shortcomings to start the season.
To wit:
2022: Started 1-3, got to 6-4. Finished 2-5 for 8-9 and out of the playoffs
2021: Started 1-3, got to 9-4. Finished 1-4, including 47-17 playoff loss to Bills.
2020: Started 2-2, got to 6-6. Finished 1-3 for 7-9 and out of playoffs.
2019: Started 4-0, got to 10-1. Finished 2-4, including 20-13 home playoff loss to the Titans.
In the three seasons since Tom Brady left, the Patriots started a combined 4-8 ... and finished 4-12.
So like a lot of other myths that were built up and widely believed for many years around here, the notion that Belichick gets his team to play its best ball after Thanksgiving was disproven once Brady departed, and we got a hint of it in 12's final season.
But, generally, Belichick has had the ability to slowly whip his troops into shape, and it hasn't cost him. In the last three seasons, the Patriots have benefitted from a lull in the schedule that was predictable when the schedule came out.
In 2022, the Patriots went 5-1 against the Lions, Browns, Bears (stunning home loss to a team that would not win another game), Jets, Colts and the Jets again. None of those teams made the postseason.
In 2021, the Patriots ran off 7 straight wins against non-playoff qualifiers in the Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Browns, and Falcons. New England was fortunate the Titans were devastated by injuries, and the Bills game was played in a hurricane.
In 2020, even with Covid and Cam Newton, the Patriots had a 4-1 stretch that featured the Jets, Texans, Cardinals and Chargers - only Arizona reached .500. New England posted a nice home win over the 11-5-bound Ravens in the rain. Amazing that might be the best win since Brady departed, and it was when Newton was QB.
The good news in the Patriots' 2023 schedule is that there is again a soft-belly portion of the schedule, a five-game stretch starting on Nov. 5: vs. Commanders (8-8-1 in '22), Colts (4-12-1), at Giants (9-7-1), vs. Chargers (10-7 but NE has won 7 straight in the series and 5 straight at Gillette) and at Pittsburgh (9-8).
The problem? Only one of those teams had a worse record than the Patriots in '22.
The other problem? The schedule to start the season is much more difficult than it has been in recent years, and the close again looks daunting.
The first eight games are against five playoff teams from 2022 (Dolphins twice, with new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio). Out of the three non-playoff teams, the Jets (Patriots beat the Zach Wilson-led team twice in one-score games in '22) are on the road and now have Aaron Rodgers; and the Raiders are on the road and beat New England last year, and now have Jimmy Garoppolo.
The final four games feature the Chiefs, road games at Denver (Sean Payton) and Bills, and the finale against the Jets.
Basically: Belichick no longer has the luxury of allowing his team to ease its way into the season. He can't run another Club Med camp and expect to make a return to the postseason.
F--ck around and find the season over by Halloween — when the schedule gives them the opportunity (and it's not the layup of years past on paper) to right the ship for a stretch run where they might be favored once – the finale at home against the Jets, if Rodgers is not a hit in Gotham.,
There shouldn't be any excuses. Belichick basically ran everything back on defense and invested heavily to improve the special teams. And he gets no slack with the offense since most of the important players will be in their third year together, and if they need time to gel on offense with a new offensive coordinator, that only further shows how much Belichick screwed things up on offense — his decisions will have sunk this team two-straight seasons.
Digging in a little deeper on the schedule and my early game-by-game predictions (a year ago, I predicted 9-8 at this time ... not bad. I went to 8-9 on the day of the opener)
- WEEK 1, Sept. 10: vs. Eagles (14-3), 4:25 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: Season opener.
Skinny: Patriots have a tough schedule, having to play the AFC West and NFC East, but the schedule makers did give them two huge breaks in that they get all of camp to gameplan for the Eagles — their offense is much tougher to handle with only a regular game week to prepare — and they have 10 days to prepare for the Chiefs at home. So against the defending Super Bowl combatants, the Patriots have ample opportunity to gameplan and prepare. That's a big bonus.
Thinking out loud a bit: signing dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham as an undrafted free agent looks even smarter now that the Eagles are in Week 1 — he's as good as the Patriots are going to get as far as a look at Jalen Hurts goes — and part of me wonders if the Patriots had some advance notice on that. In any event, I wonder if this possibly puts Cunningham in line to make the opening 53, at least for the first week. He could serve as Hurts on the scout team all summer, but when it comes time to preparing for the Eagles the week of the game, the Patriots are going to take a chance he gets signed? Hell, if I were the Eagles, I would sign him for that reason. Remember, the final cutdown last year was Aug. 30. The Patriots didn't play until Sept. 11.
Bottom line is this: There are no excuses for the Patriots not to compete in this game, at least defensively. They have four months to gameplan and prepare for the Eagles' six-back offense. And there should be no new starters aside from CB Christian Gonzalez. If the Patriots are set on D as Belichick apparently thinks they are, the Patriots should be able to hold that Eagles team in the 20s.
Prediction: LOSS (0-1 Record)
- Week 2, Sept. 18: vs. Dolphins (9-8), 8:20 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: at Chargers
Skinny: Patriots have never beaten QB Tua Tagovailoa. New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will be a big challenge as he undoubtedly will improve a unit that finished 15th in defensive DVOA last year.
Prediction: WIN (1-1)
- Week 3, Sept. 24 at Jets (7-10), 1 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: at Dallas (and KC awaits Jets after NE).
Skinny: Definitely a benefit to get the Jets after a physical game on the road in Dallas. I like getting the Jets early as they work out of the kinks with Rodgers, the offense and personnel.
But, man, I'm worried about that Jets defense. Speaking of defense, Bill O'Brien gets no time to break the colts in. In the first five games, the Patriots don't face a defense that ranked lower than 15th in defensive DVOA last season — and that was Miami, which will get a huge boost from Fangio. The rest: Eagles 6th, Jets 5th, Cowboys 2nd.
Prediction: LOSS (1-2)
- Week 4, Oct. 1: at Dallas (12-5), 4:25 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: at Arizona.
Skinny: Not great that the Cowboys have the rebuilding Cardinals before hosting the Patriots. And Dallas' defense should be primed, but they are switching to Mike McCarthy as the playcaller.
Prediction: LOSS (1-3)
- Week 5, Oct. 8: vs. Saints (7-10), 1 p.m.
Opponent's previous game:
Skinny: Fun fact — the Saints, according to DVOA, were stronger at the end of last season than the Patriots (11th weighted DVOA vs. 20th), and they signed QB Derek Carr.
Prediction: WIN (2-3)
- Week 6, Oct. 15: at Raiders (6-11), 4:05 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: at Green Bay (Monday Night).
Skinny: Patriots get the benefit of the Raiders playing on a short week, but they know NE so well the gameplanning advantage is thrown out the window. If Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy in this one, he and Josh McDaniels could go off in this one.
Prediction: LOSS (2-4).
- Week 7, Oct. 22: vs. Bills (13-3), 1 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: Giants on SNF.
Skinny: Patriots get a little break with the Bills playing the Giants on Sunday night, but an even bigger benefit is that Buffalo will have been in London the week before the Giants. No bye after an international game? Rough stretch.
Prediction: LOSS (2-5)
- Week 8, Oct. 29: at Dolphins (9-8), 1 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: at Eagles, SNF.
Skinny: Man, the Patriots are starting to roll up these little tiny advantages, and the Dolphins having to play at Philly before hosting the Dolphins is nice.
Prediction: LOSS (2-6) ... it's either an 0-2 start, or a loss here. Patriots are not sweeping the Dolphins.
- Week 9, Nov. 5: vs. Commanders (8-8-1), 1 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: vs. Eagles.
Skinny: Another team coming off Philly. They might be beaten up, but the opponent also might be irritated after a projected loss.
Prediction: WIN (3-6).
- Week 10, Nov. 12: vs. Colts (4-12-1) in Germany, 9:30 a.m.
Opponent's previous game: at Carolina.
Skinny: Traveling and possibly preparing for Anthony Richardson and a six-back offense, that could potentially be not fun.
Prediction: WIN (4-6).
- Week 12, Nov. 26: at Giants (9-7-1), 1 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: at Washington.
Skinny: Giants will be coming off three straight road game (Vegas, Dallas, Washington) and will have a bye right after the NE game. I don't know if that makes them dangerous or what, but I don't like Belichick going up against any of his former assistants.
Prediction: WIN (5-6)
- Week 13, Dec. 3: vs. Chargers (10-7), 1 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: Ravens, SNF
Skinny: I love Justin Herbert, but I'll believe Brandon Staley can beat Belichick when I see it.
Prediction: WIN (6-6).
- Week 14, Dec. 7: at Steelers (9-8), 8:15 p.m. TNF
Opponent's previous game: vs. Arizona.
Skinny: Another team that finished ahead of the Patriots in both DVOA and weighted DVOA at the end of the season.
Prediction: WIN (7-6).
- Week 15, Dec. 18: vs. Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. MNF
Opponent's previous game: vs. Bills
Skinny: Patriots get 10 days to prepare for this game, while the Chiefs will be coming off one of their biggest games of the season. That should help.
Prediction: LOSS (7-7).
- Week 16, Dec. 24: at Broncos, 8:15 p.m. NFLN
Opponent's previous game: at Detroit (the third of three-straight road games).
Skinny: At the very least, Sean Payton should have his new team going in the right direction by now, which makes this a more difficult game. Also, the Broncos' defense was top 10 DVOA last year. If Payton can work some magic with Russell Wilson and the offense ... look out. Denver is a house of horrors for New England.
Prediction: LOSS (7-8)
- Week 17, Dec. 31: at Bills, 1 p.m.
Opponent's previous game: at Chargers.
Skinny: If this record is correct we would be getting into uncharted territory where Belichick's future is the topic of conversation.
Prediction: LOSS (7-9)
- Week 18, TBD: vs. Jets, TBD
Opponent's previous game: at Browns, TNF
Skinny: This is the only rest disadvantage the Patriots have all season — they don't have one team coming off a bye — but what shape will the Jets and Rodgers be in at this point?
Prediction: WIN (8-9)
This would mean a 2-6 start, and 1-3 finish ... again.
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NICKEL PACKAGE
1. I have no idea what's going on with the Krafts and Tom Brady, but given all that's going on, I don't think it's a coincidence that one day after Robert Kraft was reminding everyone of the team's glory days by announcing The Tom Brady ... Game ... Series ... Carbonite Collection(?) that the very next day word leaked via Seth Wickersham and Adam Schefter that Brady is in deep discussions to join the Raiders as a passive owner.
Sure seems like there's still an issue there. There's one way past that with Brady ... $$$$$.
2. Why no ownership stake with the Patriots for Brady? I don't know, but while the Krafts like to talk about family and football, only family gets to touch The Business. I'm sure they'd be interested in some sort of mutually beneficial partnership, but don't think Brady would be interested.
3. Mark it down: the media is scheduled to vieww Patriots practices on the following days: May 25, June 2, June 8, June 12-14 mini-camp closed to the public).
4. Some schedule leftovers:
Zero prime-time games: Texans, Falcons, Cardinals, Colts.
One: Commanders.
Two: Buccaneers, Browns, Titans, Panthers, Rams
5. Probably for my own amusement, I imagine a world where Mac Jones steps to a podium at some point this season and channels his inner Marcus Smart from the other night.
"Bringing in Bill O'Brien and Adrian Klemm just goes to show Bill is learning, just like all of us," Jones, in my mind, says. "I know he's been killed a lot -- rightfully so, for what happened last season with the offense. You know, he needed to make some adjustments. And he did that. And that's all you can ask for -- just continue to be the best he can be. And it takes everybody, it's a full team effort."
Then I woke up ... Can you imagine?!