Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Eastern Conference Playoffs, Round 1
SCHEDULE
- Game 1: Saturday, 4/15, TD Garden, 3:30 - NBCS Boston/ESPN
- Game 2: Tuesday, 4/18, TD Garden, 7:00 - NBCS Boston/NBA TV
- Game 3: Friday, 4/21, State Farm Center, 7:00 - NBCS Boston/ESPN
- Game 4: Sunday, 4/23, State Farm Center, 7:00 - NBCS Boston/TNT
- *Game 5: Tuesday, 4/25, TD Garden, TBD
- *Game 6: Thursday, 4/27, State Farm Center, TBD
- *Game 7: Saturday, 4/29, TD Garden, TBD
*if necessary
Fanduel odds: Boston (-1000) is favored to win the series with five games (+160) as the favorite for length of series.
STATS
Boston:
- Offensive Rating: 117.3 (2nd NBA)
- Defensive Rating: 110.6 (2nd NBA)
- Assist %: 63.2 (T-5th NBA)
- OReb %: 25.5 (27th NBA)
- DReb %: 74.6 (1st NBA)
- Turnover %: 13.3 (T-6th NBA)
- EFG %: 56.6 (4th NBA)
Atlanta:
- Offensive Rating: 115.5 (T-7th NBA)
- Defensive Rating: 115.4 (22nd NBA)
- Assist %: 56 (28th NBA)
- OReb %: (T-10th NBA)
- DReb %: 71.7 (T-18th NBA)
- Turnover %: 12.6 (3rd NBA)
- EFG %: 54.1 (T-19 NBA)
SERIES PREVIEW
The Atlanta Hawks should be better than they’ve been. They have talent and multiple positions and have shown, once upon a time, that they can work together to maximize that talent.
But once they made their surprising run to the Eastern Conference Finals two seasons ago, they started acting as if they’d arrived. During last season’s slow start, Trae Young admitted, “it's regular season. I'm not going to lie, it's a lot more boring than the playoffs.”
They’ve been disappointments ever since, struggling to find the right motivation and mix of offensive and defensive players. The result is a team with a high-powered offense and a very porous defense. Their net rating is a tick above even, which explains why they finished the season with a .500 record and a win in the play-in tournament.
The Celtics' already impressive statistics are even better against the Hawks:
- ORtg: 125.4 (+8.1)
- Net Rtg: 13.6 (+7.1)
- Ast %: 68.3 (+5.1)
- Tov %: 12.9 (-0.4)
- EFG %: 64.3 (+8.3)
Atlanta, meanwhile, sees its numbers take a hit against Boston:
- ORtg: 111.8 (-3.7)
- Net Rtg: -13.6 (-13.5)
- Ast %: 52.9 (-3.1)
- Tov %: 9.2 (-3.4)
- EFG %: 50.3 (-3.8)
It doesn't take a genius to see where this is going.
Boston’s good defense makes the Hawks good offense suffer. The Hawks bad defense makes the Celtics great offense elite.
The Hawks brought in Dejounte Murray to help alleviate some of the defensive issues, but there is only so much he can do. At 6’5”, the most Atlanta can hope for is that he bothers Jaylen Brown enough to cause him to have a subpar series and hope Young can out-duel Jayson Tatum. With Clint Capela at the rim, the Hawks will hope to prevent some of Boston’s penetration, but that hasn’t really been an effective strategy this season. The Hawks allow the second-most points in the paint in the NBA.
Add to that Boston’s ability to play five-out with Al Horford and Derrick White starting with Tatum, Brown, and Marcus Smart, and Capela could be neutralized from the beginning.
That would put pressure on Onyeka Okongwu to deal with boxing out Robert Williams off the bench. Okongwu had a strong showing in the play-in game, but matching up with Williams could be problematic for him.
The Hawks were able to win that play-in game by attacking the offensive glass and turning those second chances into dunks. Although Boston finished the season as the best defensive rebounding team in the league, they have had games where they let their guard down and gotten roasted. The Hawks will take whatever chances they can get on the offensive glass, so a full team effort to get those rebounds will be key, and once those boards are secured, the Celtics can get out and run. Part of the reason the Hawks give up so many points in the paint is that they give up the fifth-most fast break points. They don’t turn the ball over, so the breaks come off their own misses.
And then there's Young, who was 14th in the NBA in scoring at 26.2 points per game. He did it on 43% shooting, the lowest percentage of anyone until you get to 30th-leading scorer LaMelo Ball. His 33.5% shooting on 3-pointers is tied with Jaylen Brown for fourth-lowest among the top 14.
But Young is getting to the line 8.8 times per game, something the Celtics will have to cut down. They’ll also have to make him more one-dimensional, keeping him from reaching his 10.2 assists per game (third-best in the NBA). If he’s slinging dimes around the court, the Hawks become a lot more dangerous. If they're keeping him bottled up going for his own offense and taking turns with Murray and the rest of his teammates, the Celtics will be fine.
I think the Celtics will be fine either way. The Hawks' defense is nowhere near good enough to beat Boston four times. I barely think the Hawks are good enough to beat Boston once, but I’ll give them that out of respect for the Basketball Gods and as an acknowledgment that the Celtics might sleepwalk their way through a game.
They shouldn’t, though. This Celtics team is where it wants to be. The playoffs are here and there's no more reason to be playing with their food. If they want us to believe that the regular season lulls were more aberration than the norm, then a sweep or gentlemen’s sweep would be a good start.
Celtics in 5.
