CURRENT SITUATION
On the roster: Rhamondre Stevenson (2025), Pierre Strong Jr. (2026), Kevin Harris (RFA 2024), James Robinson (2025), Ty Montgomery (UFA 2024)
Futures contracts: J.J. Taylor
Patriots' Historical Drafting
Over the last 16 years, the Patriots have made 10 RB selections and 2 key priority free-agent signings. Two of those selections came last year in Pierre Strong Jr. (South Dakota St) and Kevin Harris (South Carolina) - who we called pre-draft. There’s no trend on where they’ve drafted from, but they’ve largely stuck to bigger college programs which allows for a better look at how a back will transition to the NFL. This is a position where the Patriots have a very strong track record and they’ve excelled in the middle rounds. Ironically, their two first-rounders, Laurence Maroney (Minnesota) and Sony Michel (Georgia) didn’t have long-term success. Their two passing down backs, Shane Vereen (California) and James White (Wisconsin) were big-time producers who helped win Super Bowls. Their early-down backs, Stevan Ridley (LSU), Damien Harris (Alabama) and current stud Rhamondre Stevenson (Oklahoma) have been effective. Lastly, Brandon Bolden (Ole Miss) and J.J. Taylor (Arizona) contributed post-free agent signing.
Draft Expectations for the Position
On average, there are almost 23 RBs picked each year but only 1.5 are selected in the first round (over the last 6 years). That’s largely because the position has been devalued across the league over the last decade. If a team makes a pick in the first round it’s because they believe him to be a true difference maker and the missing roster piece. This year, the position has one elite-level talent and one player who might squeeze into the back of the first round. Positionally speaking, it’s generally easier for a RB to contribute as a rookie although the Patriots traditionally allow for a redshirt season. This is an important year in assessing Strong and Harris.
While this isn’t an obvious position of need again, we did well last year calling out the need for a future replacement for James White (who was still on the roster at the time) and a development pick for early downs to protect against Damien Harris leaving. I believe having an early down back to share the load is critical in the NFL. They were too reliant on Stevenson last year, especially after Harris got injured. Secondly, when this offense is at its best it has a reliable, dynamic third-down back who can break a defense through first downs. While not as high of a need, if they do pick a back it’s because they aren’t convinced on either Harris and/or Strong.
Potential First-Rounders
RB Bijan Robinson, Texas (5-foot-11, 215 pounds): He's the best RB prospect over the last few years and a top 3 non-QB prospect this year. But the draft has changed. Ten years ago, he'd be an easy top-10 pick. Although he still may end up top 10, it's about fit and need. Might hurt him that it's a deep class but someone is going to end up with a great player. Last year he broke 95 tackles on 221 touches. That’s a great trait for the NFL game because of the speed and lack of holes. He has great hands, good vision, power with balance, and he’s explosive. Not the best pass blocker but he can be a weapon on third down. Finally, the more action he gets the more he'll stress a defense. He’s a true RB1 and there's not much missing from his game. He’ll also be a first-round pick in your fantasy drafts.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (5-9, 199 pounds): More likely a second-rounder but he could slip into the latter part of the first round because of his Alvin Kamara abilities. He’s on the smaller side for the NFL game but he has great hands and he’s a legit home run hitter. His burst and speed combo are impressive. He also does a good job setting up blocks and making explosive cuts. However, there are times when he gets impatient and likes to bounce it to the outside. That will need to be managed because it won’t be as effective at the next level. In the passing game, he’s a match-up problem. While pass protection needs some work, he doesn’t lack the will. Teammates said he was a good locker room fit after transferring from Georgia Tech. I don't think he's an every-down running back but it’s more about the touches (15-20 a game) to put him in position to win.
POTENTIAL PATRIOT FITS BY ROUND
Round 1: Bijan Robinson.
I said in the chat last week that my comp for him is LaDainian Tomlinson. This isn’t a position of need but that’s the type of potential player he can be.
Round 2: Jahmyr Gibbs.
After scouting him in person at the Tennessee vs. Alabama game I wrote, “he’s a certified top 45 prospect and might sneak into the first round. He’s fast even for the NFL game. It’s a real weapon. He had over 150 yards and 3 TDs. He’d look good in a Patriots uniform if they’re not convinced RB Pierre Strong is the answer. His angle routes would make a cheerleader out of QB Mac Jones.”
Round 3: Tank Bigsby, Auburn (6-0, 210).
I’ve been higher on him than most. I think he has great cutting ability and the vision to make jump cuts. He played behind a poor offensive line this year and still broke 60 tackles on 178 attempts. I like the fact that he played right away at Auburn and led the team in rushing every year. He’s not afraid of contact, he's always been hard for defenders to tackle, yet Bigsby has only missed 1 game in his career. He has good balance and burst. I believe he's an NFL back that can contribute quickly on early downs and not be a liability in the pass game. Let’s acknowledge the obvious, he has an elite nickname. His family gave it to him as a toddler because he'd run into things, get knocked down, and get back up without flinching. The only reason I don’t have him higher is because he fumbled 4 times last year.
If the Patriots went for a change of pace back here, I’d pound the table for Tyjae Spears (Tulane). I talked about him quite a bit during the Senior Bowl. His medicals are important (knee injuries), but he was very good in Mobile. He was dynamic on some routes, explosive in the open field, and didn’t shy from contact.
Round 4: DeWayne McBride, UAB (5-10, 209).
Led the country in rushing (1,713 yards, 19 TDS) before sitting out of the bowl game. His speed isn't elite for the next level, but his contact balance is (4.1 yards after contact). He runs with a certain shiftiness and smoothness (patience) that make up for his lack of top-end speed. If he can hold onto the football, I think he could stick as primary back on early downs.
Another player I really like here is Israel Abanikanda (Pitt). He’s explosive and can make a highlight reel run. While Israel is bigger than McBride, he’s more speed than power. He may be best in a zone scheme as a rotational back.
Round 5: Eric Gray, Oklahoma (5-9, 207).
Gray was solid all week at the Senior Bowl. He showed good acceleration, runs hard and I thought his footwork was great. Below average NFL speed at best, which will hurt him a bit, but I could see him in the James White role. He has 99 career catches and he’s a willing blocker. His OC at Oklahoma said, "he operates like a pro, takes care of body, then he prepares in meeting rooms. He has ton of knowledge".
If the Patriots went with an early down option, I’d target Kendre Miller (TCU). He was hurt throughout the draft process and should be available on Day 3. He runs hard and is tough to tackle due to a powerful lower half (squats over 600 pounds).
Round 6: Deuce Vaughn, Kansas St (5-5, 179).
This is a fun pick as Deuce is a replica of Darren Sproles. His size is an obvious concern (although they’ve kept J.J. Taylor) but the Big 12 players I talked with raved about Vaughn and how hard he was to play against. He’s a team captain, knows the game (father is a scout), and played in every game the last 3 years for the Wildcats (while being super productive).
I almost went with Kenny McIntosh (Georgia) who was teammates with Zay Flowers in high school. Good player for the Bulldogs but he ran a disappointing 40 time and generally didn’t test well. He may have tried to add weight during the process which would have been a mistake because he’s a 3rd down back with great hands.
Round 7: Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota (5-8, 203).
He measured smaller than I expected (vs. how he runs) which doesn't help him but he’s ultra-effective and the Patriots coached him at the Shrine Bowl (where I thought he was the most consistent back all week). He led the nation this year with 110 first downs or touchdowns and he’s had 3 seasons of over 1k rushing yards. Ibrahim is not elite at anything, and he’s benefited from running behind a talented offensive line, but he’s just a good football player. He’s tough, very good vision, and runs with a good feel to play the right angles. He's not going to break big runs at the next level, but he'll pick a hole and be effective. Due to his size, injury history (Achilles and others) he's a late pick but a player that could make a roster because of his effectiveness.
Rankings
Preseason Rankings
- Bijan Robinson, Texas
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
- Tank Bigsby, Auburn
- DeWayne McBride, UAB
- Kenny McIntosh, Georgia
Post Combine Rankings:
- Bijan Robinson, Texas
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
- Zach Charbonnet, UCLA
- Tank Bigsby, Auburn
- DeWayne McBride, UAB