PREVIOUS POSITIONS
CURRENT SITUATION
On the roster: DeVante Parker (2024 UFA), Kendrick Bourne (2024 UFA), Tyquan Thornton (2026 UFA), Raleigh Webb.
Futures contracts: Lynn Bowden Jr., Tre Nixon.
Free agents: None
Patriots Historical Drafting
Over the last 16 years, the Patriots have made 15 WR selections. Five of those could be classified as true slot wideouts. Over the same period, four slot WRs have made the roster after being signed as priority free agents. There’s no trend on where they’ve drafted from, but they have not targeted a slot WR before Round 4 (Josh Boyce, TCU). This is a position where they’ve had some success. Julian Edelman (Kent State) is one of their great success stories and they deserve some credit for drafting Braxton Berrios (Miami) although the Jets signed him off the practice squad. Former Patriots Jakobi Meyers (NC State) and Gunner Olszewski (Bemidji St) were priority free agent signings after the draft.
They haven’t had much success recently with boundary receivers. The most obvious examples are N’Keal Harry (Arizona St), Aaron Dobson (Marshall), and Chad Jackson (Florida). It’s too early to judge Tyquan Thornton (Baylor) but this will be a key season for him. They do deserve some credit for the Round 4 selection of Malcolm Mitchell (Georgia). While he had a knee injury that ended his career, he helped them win a Super Bowl as a rookie. Bad luck for the player and the team. They also deserve a ton of credit for Matthew Slater (UCLA) in Round 6 as a special teamer. Lastly, I found it interesting that of their 12 outside (X, Z) receiver draft picks and PFA signings; 4 came from Group of 5 schools and 4 came from out west, the PAC-12. Only 2 selections from the Big 12 (including Thornton), 1 from the ACC and none from the Big Ten.
Draft Expectations for the Position
On average there are 2.5 wide receivers picked in the first round (over the last 6 years). Last year that number was 6 which is double the previous high. That aligns with the evolution of the NFL game. On average there are 23 WRs taken each year. This year's class is average. There’s still a lot of talent in the college ranks (i.e., ideal world is to pick a WR every year) but it doesn’t have the depth of past years and I don’t think it’s as deep at the top.
The slot is an incredibly important position for the Patriot offense. It requires quickness, football intelligence, toughness, and discipline. The NFL is a third-down league and the Patriots lean on their slot wide receivers and receiving backs more than most offenses. Meyers was solid for them but doesn’t have the quickness of past offensive staples (Edelman, Wes Welker, Troy Brown).
The Patriots will address the position at some point, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there are at least two rookie WRs in camp. They’ll be opportunistic on draft night and sign at least one as a priority free agent.
Potential First-Rounders
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio St (6-foot-0, 196 pounds): He’s smooth, has elite change of direction which makes him a great route runner, and strong ball skills (great tracking and he won 90% of the contested catches). He led Ohio State in catches and yards (1,606 and set the Rose Bowl receiving record) as a sophomore. He had a hamstring issue which cost him most of the season so his medicals will be important. If that's clean, I have him as the clear #1. He’s not a burner, it’s not his game, which is why I wasn’t bothered that he didn’t run the 40 at the Combine. He creates separation with his routes, tempo, and explosion. He broke 19 tackles in 2021 which is impressive for a WR. Lastly, he was very highly thought of (talent-wise) with the Ohio State program. Chris Olave (Saints) and Garrett Wilson (Jets & OROY) talked about him being the best WR on the team their last season together. He’s also the reason that another first-round pick, Jameson Williams (Lions), transferred away from Ohio State to Alabama. He couldn’t jump Smith-Njigba on the depth chart. I see a lot of Justin Jefferson (Vikings) in his game.
WR Zay Flowers, BC (5-9, 182): The first word I would use to describe Zay is sudden. He’s so good in space and explosive with the ball in his hand. He has plus speed (4.42) that translates to the next level. Strong for his size and competes for balls, BC used him on the outside and he won’t necessarily be limited to just the slot. He did have more drops than I’d like (9 this year) and he’s not the best route runner, but the traits are there, so I didn't downgrade him. But he may not win that way as a rookie.
Finally, he has a great personal story and the type of prospect you want to bet on. He’s one of 14 kids and he chose to bet on himself and his commitment to BC by staying at the school even though he had big NIL offers from other schools. From his dad "if those schools would've wanted you from the beginning, they would've gotten you from the beginning. But BC was the only school that wanted you. Don't chase the rat cheese, it's poison."
I think in most years he’s a top 50 lock, this year he should be a first rounder. I see some Jahan Dotson (Commanders) and maybe even T.Y. Hilton to him.
WR Quentin Johnston, TCU (6-3, 208): He looks like he belongs on an NFL field. He’s big and has explosive ability once the ball is in his hands. Which is a great combo. He averaged 7.7 YAC in his career and 43 broken tackles on 108 career catches. One thing I loved about him is that he played though an ankle injury all year and the word is that teams will like him off the field. There are some concerns though. The big red flag is his drop rate (10.5%) is higher than you'd like at this draft position and he body catches too much. He also wasn’t as consistent as you’d like from a guy who can physically dominate. He's a guy who I could see drop a bit because of concerns on his hands and limited route tree, route ability. I think a good comp is Mike Williams (Chargers) with a risk that he could be Kevin White (Bears).
WR Jordan Addison, USC (5-11, 173): He’s an ultra-productive player who won the Biletnikoff (nation’s top WR) in 2021 and first-team All-PAC 12 this year. He's a separator that has enough speed but wins with quickness, route pacing and footwork. That skill set allows him to run all routes. He had some drops, but he also had a ton of targets, so I am not overly concerned. While he’s rocked up, he’s still small for the NFL game and the tape doesn’t show him winning many contested catches. He may need to play the slot early to get some help off the line of scrimmage. Lastly, they spoke highly of his work ethic and intelligence within the USC program. Emmanuel Sanders is a good comp with a hope that he maxes out like Stefon Diggs.
WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee (6-0, 176): Hyatt is what many Patriots fans have been asking for, lethal speed, and what Tyquan Thornton was drafted to be. He primarily ran routes from the slot and his speed forces problems for DBs because he evaporates a cushion like a puddle on a hot day. The big question - can he get off press coverage? He doesn't have much tape against it. He's going to be raw to start at the next level, but his speed and production are attractive, and any team will have a package of plays for him. The team fit is going to matter as it relates to his early impact, he'll need the right offense (such as the Chiefs) or the right patience. But he has good ball tracking, hands, and elite acceleration. He's good with the ball in his hands largely because if he has a crease, he can take it to the house. He had the game of his life when I saw him against Alabama (5 TDs) but wasn't physical enough against Georgia. That's the story of his evaluation. Good comp is Will Fuller IV.
POTENTIAL PATRIOT FITS BY ROUND
Round 1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
His position coach at Ohio State (and former NFL WR), Brian Hartline said, “Jax has a great feel of the game within the game, start there. He knows how to use his body and how to win at the end of the play with whatever the job description is. There’s kind of a knack for that. Some guys just get it. As coaches we can try to enhance that, but from Day One, he always had that knack. There’s just something a little different for what Jax does. His change of direction is definitely the best that I’ve had. Garrett (Wilson) was pretty explosive. They all have their own niches, but when he changes direction out of a break, he doesn’t slow down. This game is really all about change of direction, and his is different, and I think it’ll be really hard for anybody to keep up with him when he changes direction because he is that elite at it, and that literally is the common denominator for creating separation in football. He’s kind of unguardable. He’ll be über-productive in the NFL. I think he will be a guy that leads the league in receptions and receiving yards. No one’s gonna be shocked. That’s just who he is, and he’s only gotten better, Like C.J. (Stroud) said, he’s the quarterback’s best friend.”
Does that sound like something Mac Jones could use? If they stay at 14, he’s the only WR that I think is worth taking.
Round 2: Kayshon Boutte, LSU (5-11, 195).
He has 16 career TDs, but he only had 2 this past year. That’s a microcosm of his college career. He was All-Freshman SEC (broke the SEC record with 308 yds receiving in one game) and he had a good sophomore season. But this year he wasn’t the same. He then followed it up by not testing well at the Combine which won’t help him. In short, I think he’s a boom or bust pick.
But here’s what I saw after watching a few games over the years. While he didn’t run great (4.50) he has plenty of “field” speed. Hands catcher with solid hand eye coordination but needs to watch concentration drops. He’s elite after the catch, elusive with body control, but he’s not a great route runner and there were times this year when he wasn't maximizing his effort.
Now here’s the key, I think he played injured this year. He had surgeries to repair his ankle and I think that affected his explosiveness a bit.
What do I like about him? He wore the fabled #7 jersey at LSU given to their top playmaker. The LSU staff reportedly praised him for his leadership in helping the team rally after a less-than-ideal start. He wasn't living up to his expectations, he was playing through injury, he had a new coach, with a new QB and didn't become a diva. Admittingly, this is a gamble pick (he could drop because of the ankle), but the talent is easy to see (D.J. Moore comp). I thought he played well enough on that ankle in the SEC championship (6 for 107, 1 TD) to roll the dice, making him an intriguing target for the Pats.
I was really torn with picking Cedric Tillman (Tennessee) instead, who I see as a “safer” pick. He was hurt (ankle) this year for the Vols but I think he’ll be a solid possession receiver on the outside. I bet teams like him more than the mocks.
Round 3: Jayden Reed, Michigan St (5-11, 187).
He was on my radar last year and I think he’s a gamer. He has good speed, is dangerous with the ball in his hands, and competes for the ball. He needs to develop better routes and more consistency on the intermediate stuff (he’s very good with the deep ball) but at the Senior Bowl I thought he was the hardest WR for the DBs to cover. He ran crisp routes to create separation and he’s pretty fast (4.45). He’s also a good returner and you don’t want Marcus Jones back there on all kicks.
Also keep an eye on Iowa State's Xavier Hutchinson (6-2, 203). Senior Bowl prospect is a big target with good measurables (4.53 40, 6.91 3-cone). Lots of experience. Good teammate that the program speaks highly of. Patriots have some interest.
Round 4: Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss (6-2, 220).
He’s an experienced player who was first-team All-SEC by the coaches. He has huge, strong hands and can be an imposing player for DBs because of his size. He has good acceleration and enough speed for the NFL. While he got better each year, 2022 was his first big season. He’s also had foot problems which is always something that requires a re-check with skilled players. He's had foot problems and missed some time. If you draft him, it's partly because you hope he's the next in line of powerful, fast, and athletic WRs from Ole Miss (A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf).
Round 5: Charlie Jones, Purdue (5-11, 175).
He was the best return man in the Big Ten. He’s crisp on his routes and does a good job winning contested catches. Charlie has pretty good hands (only 3 drops on 154 targets going into the draft). In the games I reviewed against Penn St and Syracuse (both have CB prospects), he was ultra-productive. 33 catches, 341 yards, 2 TDs. He's not going to beat elite CBs in man coverage, but he could be a solid WR3 or even WR2 over time.
Round 6: Rakim Jarrett, Maryland (6-0, 192).
Ran routes mostly from the slot but should project to all positions. He’s well-built and very athletic, with lots of potential. He has good agility in tight windows, which helps his route running, but he needs a lot of work in that arena. He was asked to run a simplistic offense, so they'll need to be comfortable with his FBI on the field, but I think he’s an unrefined gem athletically. The type of athlete I am comfortable betting on Day 3 in the draft. I also considered Parker Washington (Penn St).
Round 7: Puka Nacua, BYU (6-2, 201).
He started his career at University of Washington before transferring to BYU. I saw him Day 1 at the Senior Bowl and thought he did a great job on his routes. Smooth player with very good hands. While he has decent size, he doesn't have NFL wideout athleticism, but I think he's a rotational depth player at the next level. He’ll need to be solid on special teams, but he might stick based on his route running ability.
Free Agent Target
WR Demario Douglas, Liberty (5-8, 179).
He's young (only a redshirt soph) who would have benefitted from staying in school another year but he’s a weapon with the ball in his hands. He'd be tough to tackle in a phone booth (20 missed tackles this year). He’s small but was able to get off press because of agility. He’s more a space runner vs. a route runner that gets open. To see the field consistently for the Patriots he’ll need to develop significantly. Lastly, he'll offer return ability, but he doesn’t have enough consistency (6 muffs according to PFF) to displace someone like Marcus Jones. But when you’re getting picked this late the more you do helps to make a roster.
Rankings
Preseason Rankings
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
- Kayshon Boutte, LSU
- Quentin Johnson, TCU
- Jordan Addison, USC
- Rakim Jarrett, Maryland
*Zay Flowers (BC) has a chance to break into this group. I see him as a potential top-50 pick.
Post Combine Rankings:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
- Zay Flowers, BC
- Jordan Addison, USC
- Quentin Johnson, TCU
- Kayson Boutte, LSU
