The Celtics season has turned into the opening scene of “The Gang Misses The Boat” episode of It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia.
Things seemed great, there's a great party everyone’s invited to, but then people started screwing around, someone misses a turn, and the boat is gone. They make one last ditch effort to make it, but the car (an Eddie Bauer edition Range Rover with air intake valves, precision British land-to-see craftsmanship, mind you) ends up underwater.
I can’t think of a better way to illustrate where the Celtics are at the moment.
The Milwaukee Bucks won again last night, moving them to 50-19, three full games ahead of Boston with 13 games left to play. That means Milwaukee needs to go no better than 10-3 over that stretch, and Boston would have to be perfect. Considering the Celtics are very likely not going 13-0 to close the season, every loss they suffer would mean another game Milwaukee would have to lose. They do play each other once more, so that helps the cause, but the Celtics have to look reality in the face here. They’ve probably lost the top seed.
The gang missed the boat.
It’s a disheartening reality for a team that has spent so much of the season on top of the conference, but their insistence on making their own lives harder on themselves has put them in this position.
Milwaukee’s remaining schedule includes six games against teams below .500. Their toughest remaining games are against Boston, Philadelphia, Denver, and Memphis. The Celtics only hope is that Milwaukee loses all four of those games, which would also require the Nuggets to wake up from their Celtics-esque March slumber, and the Grizzlies to quickly regroup with Ja Morant away from the team and Brandon Clarke out with a torn ACL.
Denver coach Michael Malone blasted his team after their fourth-straight loss last night in a rant that very much applies to the Celtics, saying "right now we're just in chill mode, and you can't be in chill mode with 13 games to go in the season … maybe we've gotten a little soft with success."
At least the Nuggets have held onto the top seed. They have a chance to pull back on the yoke and get out of this nosedive. The Celtics are just trying to land this thing without doing too much damage at this point.
And that's the fragility of the NBA in 2023. It’s something that's obvious from the outside, but it’s very clearly not quite as clear on the inside. I don’t know if this team believed its own hype, forgot about the lessons learned in the Finals, or just simply has egos too big to truly believe they are vulnerable, but there is no true juggernaut in the league right now.
Well, except for the Milwaukee Bucks, who are doing things the right way. They spent the early part of the season figuring themselves out, learning to live without Khris Middleton, and working through whatever kinks they needed to untangle. When the second half of the season came around, they threw it into fifth gear, winning 16 games in a row, and 23 of 26.
On January 15, exactly two months ago, Milwaukee was in third, 5.5 games behind Boston. They’ve made up 8.5 games in that span. It’s a remarkable run that just saw them creep ever so slowly up on the Celtics. At the time, Boston was doing a good job of holding everyone off, but the Bucks, with their championship experience, strong chemistry, and an actual MVP candidate, kept on marching forward.
Let’s make no mistake here, these teams have followed their leaders down these respective paths. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP who could win it again this season, a champion, and a Finals MVP. He is an inevitable force of nature who, in last night’s win over Phoenix, took 24 free throws.
And no, it’s not because the league bails him out. I know that's going to be the reaction from some people, and it misses the point of Giannis’ greatness. It’s because he is relentless. He attacks and finds ways to get through walls and forces teams to reach. He doesn't have a 3-point shot in his repertoire and he doesn’t need one yet. He alone changes games on a regular basis.
Jayson Tatum changes games too … sometimes. His 3-point shot is much more reliable than Antetokounmpo’s, and he relies on it more than ever. But he’s now spent two seasons shooting below average from deep. League average this season is 36%, and Tatum is at 35.3%. Last season, the league average was 35.4% and Tatum shot 35.3%.
Let’s face facts: Tatum is their leader. It’s not Jaylen Brown, and it’s not even a 1 and 1A situation. The loss to the Rockets hammered that point home loud and clear. Brown came to play, put up 43 points and was active on both ends of the floor. Brown knew what the stakes were and he delivered. Tatum?
“I know I didn't necessarily start the best, and I feel like that kind of spread throughout the team.”
That's right. The team follows Tatum’s lead. They had a choice to rally behind their other All-Star, the guy who had been playing his butt off, or the guy who sort of lazily coasted and tried to flip the switch in the third quarter. They chose the latter.
The team will need Tatum and Brown to perform at their best if they're going to win a championship. This call could end up being a poorly-timed rough patch if both of those guys can band together and turn things around. But make no mistake, it’s going to have to be on Tatum to make sure this happens.
The team follows his lead. He’s been slumping since the All-Star break, and so has the team. It’s on him to get these guys out of it.
The gang has missed the boat when it comes to the top seed. It’s going to take a bit of a miracle to get that back at this point. But the Celtics can still accomplish their goals. Milwaukee is separating themselves, and Antetokounmpo is making a strong case for another MVP. Boston needs Tatum to play like one if they're going to close the gap.
