Joe Mazzulla is taking a risk.
March isn't generally the time of year when coaches are tinkering with lineups. With four weeks to go in the season, teams generally are who they are (with the obvious exception of injuries) and the goal for top teams is to start honing in on the playoffs.
Rotations should be solidified by now. Habits should have been formed by now.
But with Grant Williams now sitting through his second DNP-coach’s decision this month on Saturday (plus what would have been a third against Portland had it not been garbage time), it’s clear that Boston is in the midst of a change.
Blake Griffin is getting Williams’ minutes, and Williams is left to celebrate his teammates from the bench.
Going with Griffin, at this stage of his career, over Williams is gutsy. Making any kind of switch in the rotation at this point is. But Mazzulla has seen enough of Williams’ struggles, and is leaning on the depth that everyone raves about.
Right now, it’s paying off.
“(Griffin) had three offensive rebounds, does a great job on the offensive end of screening and those short rolls, we had a couple of those tonight,” Mazzulla said after the win in Atlanta. “Defensively he has active hands, like he's always getting deflections, he's knocking balls away. He's keeping balls alive on both ends of the floor so that we can get those. And I just like his overall, mental, physical, emotional toughness that he brings to our team. I feel like he just makes the guys better when he's on the floor.”
There are numbers to support his case. According to CleaningTheGlass (which filters out garbage time stats), Griffin is +4.1 in efficiency differential, which is the difference between what the team scores and allows per 100 possessions. Williams is -3.3. The team’s effective field goal percentage (which is weighted to include 3-pointers), is +2.2% with Griffin and -0.8% with Wiliams.
The best Griffin lineup has him joining Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum. That group is a +21 over 119 possessions. That same lineup with Williams instead of Griffin has played 71 possessions, and is a -4.2.
Neither of those sample sizes is very large, so there certainly is a lot of noise in those numbers. But at the same time, the trend seems clear. The Celtics, to some degree, have been better with Griffin in the lineup rather than Williams. I don’t think the gap is 26.2 points like the numbers suggest, but there is a gap.
But more than the numbers, Griffin has shown an intangible that might be escaping Williams. He holds one distinct advantage over Williams that can’t be overcome.
Griffin has made more than $250 million over the life of his career, and that doesn’t count endorsements, which were extensive when he was one of the faces of the league during his prime.
Williams, meanwhile, is headed into restricted free agency where he is hoping to score a contract worth somewhere between $15-$20 million per year.
Money matters to Willliams. Griffin has made all his already. Which means Griffin doesn’t have to care about his minutes or role when he goes to sleep. It means Griffin can focus on the fun of playing NBA basketball. That comes through. His teammates see it.
“I give Blake a lot of credit,” Tatum said after the game. “A guy that was a superstar, multiple All-Stars, All-NBA, was really at the top. And whether it's through injuries or whatever, has really taken on a different role. And it's been really unique to see his attitude every day. Doesn't play for two weeks and certain guys are out, he might play four or five games in a row.
“He takes the first bus. On off days he plays pick up with the guys that maybe don't play to keep their cardio up and you just don't see that with guys that was at his level … I appreciate that a lot. The guys do as well.”
On the court, Griffin doesn’t have a hint of going for personal gain. On a team with a lot of guys who can do a lot more, Griffin seems focused on the right play in the moment, taking shots that present themselves, and not hunting for too much of his own offense.
“Blake is just a very smart, savvy player,” Al Horford said. “On the defensive end, he's trying to impact the game in any way that he can. And then on offense, he's finding his spots and everything that he brings, he lifts our group. So it's just good to see him getting some minutes here and showing a different side that our group has.”
The words these guys use might not be directly referencing Williams, but they are meaningful considering what the evidence shows us. Williams’ is trying to expand his game, and has flashed some things that the Celtics might not feel they need from him.
For example, NBA tracking data shows three classifications for floaters (Driving Floating Bank Jump Shot, Driving Floating Jump Shot, Floating Jump shot). This season, he’s 13-35 combined on all of those variations of floaters. Last season he was 5-17. The season before, he was 6-15.
Williams taking floaters doesn’t help, especially when he’s shooting 37% on them. When he’s on the floor, his job is to take and make 3-pointers, attack closeouts, and pass off those attacks. Finding the open guy off his drives is critically important because when Williams drives and attacks, he’s collapsing the defense and generally giving it to a star player. That means a star player is getting the ball with the defense out of position, which means Williams’ job is done.
Williams has also taken a lot of step-back shots this season compared to last. He’s 9-25 on step-backs (36%) this season. He was 1-8 the previous season.
These aren’t shots Boston needs from him.
Maybe what Mazzulla is doing is taking a calculated risk, because I still don’t think he can make this switch right now. I don’t think Williams can sit on the bench the rest of the way as Griffin takes his minutes. We’ve seen Griffin in the playoffs already. The Celtics are having a nice stretch with him in there right now, but this can’t be the long-term plan.
What this could be is Mazzulla trying to reset Williams’ basketball brain. I think everyone knows Williams is very important to the team’s chances at winning a championship. But what they need is Williams’ body and ability with Griffin’s brain. The only step back they need Williams to take is from him trying to show off his offensive capabilities so his teammates can talk about him the way they talk about Griffin.
“He never makes it about himself, and it's contagious,” Tatum said of Griffin. “His energy, his enthusiasm, his personality. We're all very fortunate to have him as a teammate because everybody respects him and respects what he's accomplished, and his voice carries. Somebody who is always gonna be ready whenever his number is called and literally would do whatever it takes, from game to game, to just contribute whatever how many minutes he gets. We know he’s going to bust his ass.”
One way or another, Mazzulla is sending a message. Either Williams is truly out of the rotation or this is a motivational tool to show him what kind of play the Celtics really need from that position. Whichever it is, it comes with a risk.
Either Williams will get the message and come around, or Griffin will be the guy the rest of the way. It’ll be a lot to ask of Griffin, even after Robert Williams returns. If Grant Williams can get to where he needs to be, then the risk will carry a high reward for the Celtics.
