Building off our 2023 Patriots depth chart and team needs, we'll take a 10,000-foot view of each need, by order of importance, with internal options to address it, free agent/trade possibilities and a quickie view of the position in the draft (plenty of time for that after free agency).
Need #1: Free safety
Need #2: Offensive tackle
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Team Need #3: Tight end
On the roster: Hunter Henry (2024 UFA), Jonnu Smith (2025 UFA).
Futures contracts: Matt Sokol, Scotty Washington.
Free agents: None.
The Patriots gave Smith a dubious restructure to free up $5.3 million in cap space last year that essentially locked him onto the roster for 2023 (He's guaranteed $6.25 million). He has delivered a total of 55 catches for 539 yards and one touchdown in two New England seasons — at $12.5 million per season. Smith, at $17.3 million, has the second-highest cap number on the team (Matthew Judon). The only way the Patriots can get out of his contract with a cap savings is if they trade him after June 1st.
Henry, after 50 catches and 9 TDs in his first Patriots season, sure seemed like the guy to renegotiate with if not extend. He was the much surer bet. This smells like the Patriots tried to do that with Henry, but he wasn't interested in postponing his second shot at free agency. Remember, the Patriots signed Smith first and Henry didn't have much of a market. Henry will still be 29 next offseason when he's set to become an unrestricted free agent. If TJ Hockenson re-ups with the Vikings, Henry is set to be the top TE on that market.
So, basically, the Patriots have two starting-caliber TEs for this season — especially if Bill O'Brien can revive Smith — but they could be without both next season when Henry is a UFA, and Smith costs $18.5 million on the cap, making him a prime cut candidate.
Unless the Patriots want to fly by the seat of their pants without a succession plan again at another position, it's imperative they get a least one young potential starter soon. Or else we're looking at another 2019 (Ben Watson, Matt LaCosse) and 2020 (Ryan Izzo, Devin Asisi, Dalton Keene) after Rob Gronkowski retired after the 2018 season.
INTERNAL OPTIONS
After the two veterans, they have zero.
Sokol is on his 7th team after being a 2019 UDFA. Washington is on his second team after being a 2020 UDFA.
TOP-TIER, BUDGET FREE AGENTS & CAP CASUALTIES
The Patriots are not spending more money on this position unless money goes out or there's an injury. The Patriots are spending $34.4 million at TE this season, which is by far the most in the league (Jets are second at $21.1 million).
DRAFT PROSPECTS
This is a quick look. We'll dive deeper into this before the draft.
COULD BE AVAILABLE AT 14
Dalton Kincaid, rSr, TE, Utah (6-4, 240)
Michael Mayer, Jr, TE, Notre Dame (6-5, 265)
LATER FIRST/SECOND ROUND CANDIDATES
Luke Musgrave, rJr, TE, Oregon State (6-6, 255)
Darnell Washington, Jr, TE, Georgia (6-6, 270)
Tucker Kraft, Jr, TE, South Dakota State (6-5, 255)
NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah loves this TE group. We'll let him tell you about them:
"(14th not too high for me (for the Patriots to draft a TE). In terms of the number of guys, I can kind of count them up here. I have 11 tight ends that I have top three round grades on, which is a ridiculous number. It is just a really, really good group.
To me, I know he is coming off of an injury right now and I know he is kind of more of a flex tight end, but Dalton Kincaid from Utah is -- I think he is a big- time player. I think he is one of my favorite players to watch in this draft. I think he is one of the best players in the draft. He is just sudden in everything that he does. He separates. He is outstanding after the catch. You know, he can win on contact over the middle of the field. He is really, really good after the catch. You know, as a blocker, he is going to more shield you and wall off.
I don't like when you compare guys to all-time great players, but just in his movement stuff, he moves, he kind of looks likes Kelce just the way he moves in and out of breaks. He is a really, really good player. I think he's -- I really liked Zach Ertz when he was coming out, the year he was coming out. I think he is a better version of Zach Ertz. So he's up there.
You've got Michael Mayer who is just an all-around tight end, not going to be real dynamic, out of Notre Dame. But he is kind of the king of the combat catches. He has a good feel on option routes just keeping guys on his back and kind of walling them off and making plays. A good overall tight end, good blocker.
Darnell Washington is massive from Georgia. He is like playing with a sixth offensive linemen in the run game, and he is still developing and learning in the pass game. I think there's more there. Obviously, they had the best tight end in the country there with Bowers, who is just an absolute freak show. So he doesn't get as many balls as he would on other offenses, but he is really intriguing.
Luke Musgrave from Oregon State is going to probably run in the low 4.5s at 255 pounds. He could go in the first round.
Then you start going through the list. LaPorta from Iowa, Tucker Kraft from South Dakota State. You got Davis Allen from Clemson, intriguing. Payne Durham from Purdue, Schoonmaker from Michigan, Strange from Penn State, Wiley from Cincinnati. Those are the 11 guys. It is a really, really good group.
BEDARD'S EARLY PROJECTION
I don't love the Patriots taking a TE at 14 considering they have so many other needs — and this player would sit for a season. If they don't love a tackle, receiver or cornerback at 14, I would be a proponent of trading down lower in the round and taking a combo of TE/OT/CB with possibly three picks in the first two rounds after a trade down.
I think Henry is as good as gone and will be betting on himself this season to get one last bite at being a free agent.
To me right now, Washington is the perfect guy for them this season later in the first round. He would be an upgrade as a blocker on Henry and Smith and could focus on that as a rookie, while developing his skills to become a full-time starter in 2024 if Henry leaves.
A big, strong athletic dual-threat TE .... hmmm, that sounds familiar. Sign me up.