Building off our 2023 Patriots depth chart and team needs, we'll take a 10,000-foot view of each need, by order of importance, with internal options to address it, free agent/trade possibilities and a quickie view of the position in the draft (plenty of time for that after free agency).
Here is the NFL calendar for the offseason:
Feb. 21: Teams can designate a player with the franchise (exclusive or non-exclusive) or transition tags until 4 p.m. March 7.
Feb. 28-March 6: NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis.
March 7-April 19: Teams can host a maximum of 30 draft prospects for physical exams and meetings with team officials. On-field workouts are prohibited. Also, from March 7-April 26, teams can hold video/telephone interviews with prospects (three per player, none longer than 60 minutes in length).
March 13: Starting at noon and until 3:59 p.m. March 15, clubs can legally tamper with free agents.
March 15: The new league year starts at 4 p.m., and free-agent signings and trades can become official. This is also the deadline for teams to tender their restricted free agents.
March 26-29: Annual league meeting in Phoenix.
April 17: Offseason workouts being. Teams with new head coaches can start April 3.
April 27-29: NFL draft in Kansas City (Day 1: Round 1; Day 2: Rounds 2-3; Day 3: Rounds 4-7).
May 5-8 or 12-15: During one of these weekends, teams can hold a three-day rookie minicamp.
Patriots cap space numbers:
Available cap space: $32,836,047
Effective Cap Space: $28,618,728
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Team Need #1: Free safety
There are certainly sexier positions and those you'd like to upgrade, but when it comes to the Patriots lining up tomorrow and competing in an NFL game, free safety barely edges out a tackle for us.
The reason?
Free safety in this scheme is pretty crucial. They have to cover a lot of space, have to be very smart, and are often in charge of the entire secondary. At tackle, the Patriots have one good starter who can even play left tackle (Trent Brown will be better in a real scheme with a real coach) and you can figure out/help another tackle.
Devin McCourty has ably manned this crucial position since the middle of the 2012 season, when he couldn't hack it at corner when the Patriots went to more man coverage. McCourty has been everything the Patriots could want at the position since he made the switch — durable, smart as hell, often fast and always assignment-sure.
But McCourty will be 36 next season, and his contract is set to void at 4 p.m. March 15th (at a cost of $9.7 million). It appears he's on his way to retirement, but you never know. We're going with the belief that he's going to walk away and into television.
INTERNAL OPTIONS
McCourty returns: That would be the best option. He can still play at a good-enough level. His leadership is off the charts and needed. The question would be the price. He's basically made an average of $10 million since 2015. He would still need to be at that number. I'd be OK with that but it'd probably be more around $8 million.
Jalen Mills: This is probably what I would look at first. Mills played some safety for the Eagles. If the Patriots can bring in a new No. 1 CB (a big need), and pair him with Jack Jones and Marcus Jones at slot cover, that would free up Mills to play at FA. Definitely intrigued by that.
Myles Bryant (RFA): He probably has the most experience on the roster at doing it in this scheme, and he's extremely smart. But he's only 5-8 and 185 pounds. Too small for 17 games.
Joshuah Bledsoe: Played 22 snaps this season and just one was at free safety. Appears to be more of a strong safety. Patriots have plenty of those with Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips (Jabrill Peppers is a free agent). It would be a surprise if any of those players are targeted for FS. Guess it's worth a look. You never know. Phillips doesn't appear to have the speed, and Dugger is better in a more confined role near the line of scrimmage.
Jonathan Jones (UFA): The free agent could do it, but he's in line for a big contract. Would be a long shot and his third position in three years.
TOP-TIER FREE AGENTS
Jessie Bates, Bengals: Finally hits free agency and figures to get about $15 million a year. Can't see the Patriots putting major dollars into this position.
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Eagles: Former slot cornerback with the Saints can play just about anywhere in the secondary. He showed well in the Super Bowl and is not afraid of contact with a huge hit on Isaih Pacheco. Will be more expensive than McCourty with an average of about $12 million.
BUDGET FREE AGENTS
Jimmie Ward, 49ers: Another converted slot cornerback who didn't initially love the switch to safety. He's going to be 32.
Duron Harmon, Raiders: Even at 32, he's still basically the same player he was here. He's rock-solid and smart, and did a nice job on a bad defense without much help around him. You'd like better, but you could see Belichick slipping back into this well-worn shoe for comfort.
Logan Ryan, Bucs: Basically the same as Harmon. Maybe a little better athlete and more of a CB background.
Juan Thornhill, Chiefs: Very inconsistent but has some talent. Not sure he can handle this scheme.
Marcus Epps, Eagles: Had a rough season and is more of a zone player.
POSSIBLE CAP CASUALTIES
Justin Simmons, Broncos: The second-team All-Pro is set to make $14.5 million this season. He's a really good player but new regime and new coach makes you think they might want to make changes.
Byron Jones, Dolphins: Has been a cornerback but did play some safety and might be a good switch at age 30.
DRAFT PROSPECTS (Just looking for FS types, not all safeties)
This is a quick look. We'll dive deeper at this before the draft.
Sydney Brown, Illinois: Short for a safety (6-0). Five-year starter and body is maxed out. Not sure if can play single high, but worth a look.
Jordan Battle, Alabama: Four-year starter for Nick Saban. Smart and tough.
BEDARD'S EARLY PROJECTION
I wouldn't be surprised if McCourty returns, which is the preference. If he retires, I think the Patriots try to figure out things internally and draft a developmental FS. I would give Mills the first shot. It makes the most sense with what you have in the secondary.