There are only 23 games left in the regular season. The Celtics, at 42-17, have the league’s best record, third-best offense, fourth-best defense, and best net rating.
They are, by most measures, the championship favorite.
Yet they are still a work in progress. Here are the things they need to prioritize over the last seven weeks of the season.
1 (and 1a). Getting the starting lineup some reps together (and making sure Robert Williams is ready to start regularly)
The presumed playoff starting lineup of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Williams have played 71 possessions together over six games. Of course, we have a lot of evidence that this group is elite together, but now we need to make sure every element of this group is working in perfect harmony under the current circumstances. What they’ve done together in the past helps, but getting them working seamlessly in the Joe Mazzulla offense especially should be a priority.
A lot of it is just timing, but some of it is learning what kind of openings they can create with certain sets. Having, say, Williams in a certain spot on the floor might draw an unexpected reaction that they can take note of for some time in the playoffs. Timing of certain things can be sharpened. Every rep just stands down the rough edges a little more.
Getting these guys working together more helps Mazzulla, too. The more they play together, the better he can figure out when and where to substitute when things need to be tweaked. As much as these guys have played together, they haven't in front of their new head coach, and he needs to be able to see it more from the sidelines.
Making sure Robert Williams is healthy and ready to contribute in this lineup is massively important. The attention he draws on both ends of the floor is critical to a deep playoff run. Having a guy who can suck in the defense and allow for kick-out corner 3-pointers will make this offense lethal in the playoffs, and it means the Celtics can get paint touches (or the fear of them) without having to rely on perimeter players to be the only ones who get them.
2. Solidifying the top seed
Giannis Antetokounmpo reportedly has a sprained wrist ligament, and will return to play once the pain subsides. The question for Milwaukee is how far they are willing to slide from the top before finding ways for the pain to subside more quickly.
The Celtics are a half-game ahead of the Bucks with one more to play against them a month from now. If the Celtics are going to truly contend for a championship, getting that top seed will go a long way in helping that happen.
Obviously, you want to have a Game 7 in your own building throughout the playoffs, but getting the top seed could help Boston do what it couldn't do in last year’s playoffs: close out teams earlier in a series.
The Celtics blew a chance to go up 3-2 against Milwaukee and potentially finish that series in six games. They went to seven, meaning they only had one day off before facing the Miami Heat in the Conference Finals instead of three. They missed a chance to close Miami out in six, adding an extra two days to that series as well.
Maybe home court changes that. Maybe an easier second-round series changes that as well. For all the talk about the minutes these guys played and how they ran out of gas, shaving a few days and two games off that playoff run could conceivably have made a difference as Boston lost its chance at going up 3-1 in the Finals.
The second seed would be on a collision course with the Philadelphia 76ers. And as much as we all like to joke about Philly, I’d rather avoid Joel Embiid and James Harden, even with their known playoff disasters. Give me a younger, more inexperienced team like Cleveland in round two.
The second seed could also face Miami in the first round, and I don’t want to do that either. Miami/Philly/Milwaukee seems like a worst-case-scenario path to the Finals. Getting the top seed will more than likely avoid that path.
3: Keeping Derrick White hot
White has been great, especially lately. And I think moving him to the bench is a better option than taking out one of the starters I mentioned before.
That starting unit is a juggernaut defensively, and I think putting White in there with an otherwise full-strength five can sap his aggressiveness because he’s suddenly a third or fourth option. This is why I love the idea of starting a guy like Sam Hauser in a starter’s place, because he knows his role and it won’t be disruptive.
On the second unit, White can still be one of the top two options on the floor. The Celtics can take advantage of that and start second quarters with Malcolm Brogdon and White instead of Tatum or Brown so the stars can get a few extra minutes of rest. Toss in Hauser, Grant Williams, and Mike Muscala and there's shooting everywhere on the floor that will be hard to slow down.
Keeping White confident and aggressive for most of the game will help if they want to use him down the stretch.
4. Making Grant Williams a star in his role
Grant Williams is a critical piece to this run. He has to be willing to shoot the ball when he gets it, and not do too much when he has to drive and attack closeouts. I’m all for his expanded offensive game, but now is the time to focus and contribute at a maximum level.
When Tatum or Brown give the ball up, they have to trust their teammates to make the right play. If those guys, like Williams, aren’t willing to take the shots they get, then those passes will become more infrequent.
That last thing the Celtics want is for Tatum and Brown to feel the need to do everything themselves. That's how things spiraled out of control in the Finals. The threat of Williams (and White) as scorers is what helps Tatum and Brown do what they can do on the floor. Forcing a defense to react to more than one thing is how lanes open up and guys like the Jays can destroy defenses.
Williams has shown great defensive versatility. It’s just as important that he contributes offensively.
5: Mazzulla managing end-of-game situations
I think the last big test for Mazzulla is getting through tight end-of-game spots where he has to decide on whether to call a timeout or let guys play on.
I’m done with the run-stopping timeout discussion. I don’t think that's going to be answered as I think both sides have ample evidence to support their case. That ultimately means that Mazzulla is right and that calling timeouts to stop runs doesn’t work as often as people think.
Regardless of where you fall on that, the final two minutes are a different story. The substitutions and timeout usage in this stretch of a close game can flip losses into wins and vice versa. Mazzulla has shown that he is still learning how to manage those close, late situations, and if he can get a few of those over the last 23 games here, it might be very beneficial for the Celtics.
The Celtics are looking pretty good as they head into the home stretch. They begin with no one (other than Danilo Gallinari) on the injury report. If they can figure these last few things out, they can play into the middle of June again, and maybe do some celebrating when they're done.
