The Patriots, 25-26 the last three seasons, have a lot of work to do when it comes to reaching Super Bowl heights once again. Even in their own division, the Bills are still the class, and the Dolphins will be charging hard now that they've secured Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator to fix the troubled unit that held Miami back — and coach Mike McDaniel will be in his second season as coach. Even in New York, the Jets have a surging defense and are sure to throw assets to fix the offense, namely the QB position.
But none of that really matters when it comes to the Patriots. They need to worry about themselves first and foremost — because there's plenty of work to do there. Adding Bill O'Brien will certainly help a lot, and Adrian Klemm is sure to be an upgrade over what they had in 2022, even if his NFL bonafides to this point are lacking. At this point, we can feel somewhat confident that Patriots coaching in all three phases — especially with Bill Belichick out of the offensive room and lending his expertise to defense and special teams — will give New England a fighting chance more often than not in 2023.
Now it's up to the talent on the roster to take them from middling to possible contender status this season. We've laid out the team needs going forward, but if the Patriots are to quickly rise up, here are five areas they need to dramatically improve, and how to do it.
One note: When it comes to draft prospects, I'm going off consensus. I have not personally looked at these players and won't until April after free agency.
5. Draft an athletically gifted, developmental QB.
OK, this is sort of a bonus because this is for down the road, but with the QB position so important in the NFL — and the Patriots not totally settled there heading into Mac Jones' third season — no team should wait on it if they don't have an elite QB.
Tennessee's Hendon Hooker would be the type of player with superior athletic skills that could be a 2-3 year project, and pay off big down the road. Bailey Zappe is not a developmental prospect — he's likely a career backup/spot starter. Patriots won't have many chances to draft a QB high, so you're looking to buy low and hopefully get a payoff down the road after O'Brien develops them. Hooker is coming off ACL surgery, so that should limit his draft position.
Tanner McKee of Stanford, a 6-6 pocket QB, is another good prospect after the top 4 that are expected to go in the first round.
4. Draft Georgia OT Broderick Jones in first round to solidify the offensive line.
As long as Trent Brown is here and Klemm can reach him, the Patriots have a good starting tackle on either side of the line. If the Patriots don't want him anymore and want to save his $10 million, now the conversation is different. The Patriots have four good starters on the offensive line. They could get by with a Conor McDermott type — you can always deal with helping one tackle — but the ideal would be getting a rookie starting tackle that has LT potential, starting them at RT in Year 1, and moving them to LT and beyond Brown in Year 2.
Jones out of Georgia is that type — if he lasts until 14. He's got great feet, barely allowed any pressure in college, and can be molded into a franchise LT in time if Klemm is worth his contract.
A line of Brown, Strange (needs a lot of work but the ceiling is high), Andrews, Onwenu and Jones has the potential to be really good with a true OC and line coach. Mac Jones could trust that group, and that means a lot — to say nothing of being more physical and better on the ground. A good line greatly improves the Patriots very quickly.
3. Evolve at linebacker ASAP.
We went over this recently, and the bottom line is the same:
If the Patriots are in fact here to compete for Super Bowls and not merely to be in the playoff conversation, the area where they can immediately improve the most to close the gap on defense is absolutely clear when looking at our final unit ratings: It's linebacker, and it's not even close. In the six best performances (against weak opponents), the linebackers rated a 3.8 — that's an A in my grading system. In the six worst games, the linebackers were a 1.0 — an F ... minus, basically.
Ja'Whaun Bentley can stick, for a year, at the Mike spot if needed. Jahlani Tavai is a backup/matchup guy at best. The Patriots have to get faster at linebacker to compete with modern offenses. Belichick adapted his secondary in 2012, can he do that at linebacker? He passed on Devin Lloyd last year, which really hurts, but he can't do it again.
Trenton Simpson (Clemson) and Drew Sanders (Arkansas via Alabama) are two outstanding athletes at LB that the Patriots might be able to get in the second round. Might try to steal Germaine Pratt, a Bengals free agent.
2. Find a dangerous weapon — and double up with a draft pick as well.
DeAndre Hopkins is possible but I'm not paying his contract. Not a fan of Mike Evans. Would be open to Jerry Jeudy for a future pick, but not sure Broncos will deal with Sean Payton there now.
Love Jakobi Meyers, but I'm not re-upping him. I'd rather sign a Braxton Berrios if he's a cap cut with the Jets — someone like that.
I'm not desperate at this spot. DeVante Paker, Kendrick Bourne (with Billy O) and Tyquan Thornton have talent. You insert a Jeudy and find a mid-draft athlete with upside, I like where I am.
I'm not entertaining any of the free agents — you're dealing with other people's trash.
1. Import a No. 1 CB to get secondary right.
Go get a guy like Jalen Ramsey, who the Rams might have to let go of for very little. Little expensive but still can play. Patrick Peterson is similar with the Vikings, and he's a free agent.
Darrelle Revis was 29 when Pats got him ... Ramsey is 29. Possibly Carlton Davis or others become cap casualties. I then move Jalen Mills to FS to replace Devin McCourty, Jack Jones is No. 2 and Marcus Jones is the slot. Now we're cooking.
Secondary of:
CB1 Jalen Ramsey
CB2 Jack Jones
SCB Marcus Jones
FS Jalen Mills (find next guy in draft)
SS Kyle Dugger
3rdS Adrian Phillips
I really like that group and you can compete against the better offenses.
To recap:
- Give yourselves an option down the road at QB
- Tweak the offensive line
- Faster at both linebacker spots
- Find a weapon, and draft one
- Import a veteran CB1 and slot everyone down 1.
But that together with better offensive gameplans, and Belichick more involved on defense and special teams ... the Patriots can get better in a hurry without a ton of work.