NFL Notebook: 2022 Unit Ratings - It's time for Belichick to evolve Patriots at linebacker

We'll start looking forward to 2023 next week, but here's one more look back before we go forward.

___________________

By just about any metric, the Patriots had a very good defense overall during the 2022 season.

They finished 3rd in FootballOutsiders.com's total defensive DVOA (compares every situation to the league average and adjusts for opponent), and were first in weighted DVOA (more weight on the end of the season).

They were 11th in points against, 8th in yards.

In the advanced stats world, the Patriots were 2nd in Expected Points.

But there's a little bit of fool's gold there — as your eyes told you, similar to previous years dating back to 2019.

Basically, the Patriots beat up on weak teams/QBs — big time. And had a tough time treading water against the better defenses.

The best defensive DVOA games:

Week 11 Jets (Zach Wilson)
Week 9 Colts (Sam Ehlinger)
Week 6 Browns (Jacobi Brissett)
Week 5 Lions (Jared Goff, when Detroit was scuffling)

The worst defensive DVOA games:

Week 3 Ravens (Lamar Jackson)
Week 7 Bears (Justin Fields ... yeah, I don't know)
Week 12 Vikings (Kirk Cousins)
Week 4 Packers (Aaron Rodgers)
Week 13 Bills (Josh Allen)
Week 18 Bills (Josh Allen)

There are six of the Patriots' nine losses right there.

When we look at our positional unit rankings grades and the overall defensive average, they are basically a mirror — a little different order, but same ballpark:

Best defensive games

Worst defensive games

So the Patriots, from 10,000 feet, have a good defense. Very good even. That means they'll be just about every game, and will beat down weaker opponents.

But when you get up close, you realize the Patriots aren't very good against the better offenses and quarterbacks.

The bottom line is this: if the Patriots really want to get back to true contention, they have to be better against the good offenses — especially with the AFC East taking another step (Bills and Dolphins) and one team that is sure to throw a lot of resources at theirs (Jets).

If the Patriots are in fact here to compete for Super Bowls and not merely to be in the playoff conversation, the area where they can immediately improve the most to close the gap is absolutely clear when looking at our final unit ratings:

It's linebacker, and it's not even close.

Look at the game grades. In the six best performances, the linebackers rated a 3.8 — that's an A in my grading system.

In the six worst games, the linebackers were a 1.0 — an F ... minus, basically.

The defensive line greatly improved this season. The secondary took a step back, but that was to be expected with a youth movement that should improve next season.

The linebacker position has been a running issue on this team since the start of the 2020 season when the Patriots' leading snap-getters at LB were Ja'Whaun Bentley, Anfernee Jennings and Terez Hall. In 2021, the Patriots improved almost by default as they went the old retread route: Kyle Van Noy, Bentley, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins.

This year, Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Raekwon McMillan and Mack Wilson got the bulk of the reps.

The talent level continues to just not be good enough. Until Bill Belichick stops looking at the stats that are lying to him and everyone else, and admits they need more impact from the second level, this defense is just treading water.

It's nothing against Bentley and Tavai. Both are very assignment-sure and solid players. Tavai, especially with his Van Noy-like versatility to play inside and outside, is a good player to have around — and I told him as much after the season, when I admitted I was wrong about him to his face.

But both should be depth players, at the most holding a spot for a young draft pick learning the ropes. Being good at your assignment doesn't mean much when the opposition is just better than you and makes you look slow.

As former Patriots executive Mike Lombardi often says, when your Mike linebacker is slow, your defense is slow. I'd expand that to inside linebackers, and the Patriots have two of the slowest in the league.

That's fine against the weaklings. They get exposed against the better offenses, and that leads to the entire defense getting exposed.

It's time for Belichick to evolve his thinking with the linebacker position. What the Patriots have done for years is no longer good enough.

______________________

Let's start off with the '22 grades on a per-game basis. Please note that due to the averages and the fact that I don't give out many 5.0s each week (I'm a tough grader; might need to loosen those up a little), the grading should roughly be viewed as:

A: 5.0-3.2
B: 3.1-2.75
C: 2.74-2.25
D: 2.24-2
F: Below 2

From best to worst, here are the rankings for each individual unit, with average grade and with a comparison to their '21 grades.

Defensive line: 3.94 (3.03)
Running back: 3.32 (3.75 in '21)
Receivers/tight ends: 2.65 (2.64)
Quarterback: 2.53 (2.78)
Linebackers: 2.32 (2.78)
Defensive backs: 2.29 (2.72)
Offensive line: 2.12 (3.00)

Here's a look at the grade progression from 2016-22.

RANKING THE UNITS, FROM MOST TO LEAST IMPROVED

Defensive line +0.83

The Patriots played the run much better this season all around as Davon Godchaux was a little improved this season, Lawrence Guy played well when he was in there and the Patriots got good run shaps from Carl Davis. But really this is about the huge step forward from the pass rush. Matthew Judon put together a full season, but Josh Uche and Deatrich Wise greatly improved.

Recevers/tight ends +0.01

One unit improved ... the rest tread water or declined. Jakobi Meyers, Devante Parker and Kendrick Bourne played well in their opportunities. Hunter Henry executed well, he just didn't get many looks in this offense. Jonnu Smith was a waste again.

Quarterback -0.25

Mac Jones definitely took a step back, but we now know — unless you just want to make Jones the scapegoat — that he was byproduct of his subpar surroundings: bad protection, poor routes, and incompetent coordination. A QB needs to be confident in what's around him, Jones never had any confidence. The good news is, in terms of how he executes at the position, he didn't fall off all that much from his rookie season.

Defensive backs -0.43

Patriots didn't have Jalen Mills for a lot of the season, which forced everyone to play up a slot, including two rookies (Jack Jones and Marcus Jones), Myles Bryant and Jonathan Jones, who had to move from slot to boundary. He was good for much of the season, but he got exposed against the better receivers. The Jones rookies had some really good moments, but had rookie issues as well. Bryant should be a utility/backup.

The safeties group was solid, but about average. Even Kyle Dugger gave up as many plays as he made. He needs to take another step. 

Running backs -0.43

Rhamondre Stevenson took a step forward in his sophomore season, but he wore down as the season went along with Damien Harris — who was really good in 2021 — battled injuries and played about half the snaps. Patriots also had no third-down back when Ty Montgomery went down early. Rookies Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris flashed a little bit and showed improvement, but they still have a ways to go.

Linebackers -0.45

Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai are where they should be, and are good tacklers, but they don't make many plays — and they give up a lot. Raekwon McMillan and Mack Wilson were huge disappointments.

Offensive line -0.88

This is the first Patriots offensive line that has been below a 3 since 2016 — and this group wasn't even close. Obviously coaching was an issue, and some of the decisions — namely swapping Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown — were puzzling. Patriots took a step back from Teddy Karras to rookie Cole Strange, but the left guard has a high ceiling. Going from Shaq Mason to Mike Onwenu was about a draw. Patriots got worse — a lot worse — at three spots: LT, RT and LG.

Ranking the five best and worst overall team performances

Patriots were at their best — and the schedule the weakest — in the first half. Again.

Limped to the finish again.

Man, those games against the Packers and Bears really hurt in hindsight. That was the last game Chicago won all season — and the Patriots were blown out by them at home.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. So the question about the Patriots and their linebackers is, will Belichick really evolve (it's always the question)? It's easy to just sit there and say, 'He's 71, he just let Matt Patricia and Joe Judge waste everyone's time ... of course he's not going to change." I would tend to doubt it because Belichick signed Bentley to an extension before last season and gave Tavai one during the season. Neither is for big money, but that's part of the valuation. Both are cheap. Are they getting bang for their buck? Of course, so that skews their thinking. But here's the other thing: Belichick did change as far as coverage in 2012, when he realized he couldn't play zone anymore, and started getting man cover corners — and playing a lot of man coverage. So he evolved there. He has to see this, doesn't he? I mean, it's as clear as day. Please, for the love of god, draft some linebackers that are athletes first, and let Jerod Mayo coach them off. Have to get faster on defense, and it starts at linebacker. 

2. Man, I love this time of year. Anyone with a keyboard, access to OverTheCap.com and a love for fantasy football start penning stories about how the Patriots could create all this cap space without asking the essential question: will they? There is not one shred of evidence that the Patriots are going to join the modern NFL by taking on all sorts of dead cap and pushing out contracts to win now. They just do not do it. Could Belichick change? Sure. Anything is possible. It doesn't mean it's reality. Do I think this is a major shortcoming for Belichick, that he just doesn't want to do complex math? Yes. Does it hurt the Patriots competitively? Yup. That doesn't mean the Cap Math Fairy is going to show up tomorrow in Foxborough. I mean, the Patriots tweaked Jonnu Smith's contract — of all people — to create space last year. They're not exactly doing calculus inside One Patriot Place.

3. Speaking of fantasy football, Bengals WR Tee Higgins was asked a question on NFL Network about being photoshopped into every uniform. How long will the team stay together? "Hopefully for a long time, I plan on being in Cincinnati for a while." Higgins is heading into the final year of his rookie contract. His team is also owned by Mike Brown, who does not get pushed around at the negotiating table.

4. Couldn't be happier that Dolphins LB Zach Thomas was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He was so impressive to cover up close. No one prepared like him. No one practiced as hard as he did. I consider myself very lucky: I've seen a lot of greatness up close.

Dan Marino
Brett Favre
Jason Taylor
Junior Seau
Charles Woodson
Zach Thomas

Future HOFers:

Rob Gronkowski
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Bill Belichick
Dante Scarnecchia
Matthew Slater

Pretty blessed.

5. Don't have a ton of grand thoughts on the Super Bowl. I try not to get into the minutia. The Eagles have the better and deeper team, they are better on both lines. Unless Patrick Mahomes is just sensational, the Eagles should win.

Pick: Eagles 30, Chiefs 24. 

Game is close into the fourth quarter, I just think the Eagles have more ways to win the game and their ground game — including Jalen Hurts — wears down the smaller Chiefs.

MVP Pick: AJ Brown. He's the biggest physical mismatch in this game.