NFL Notebook: What's the offseason checklist for the Patriots to get back into contention?

Whether it comes Sunday with a loss to the Bills, various playoff permutations during the course of the day, or a postseason loss, the offseason is coming — quickly — for the New England Patriots.

In all likelihood, the Patriots will finish 8-9 (they are now 7.5-point underdogs at Buffalo) — their second losing season in three seasons. Those are the first losing seasons for Bill Belichick since arriving in New England in 2000, and you'd have to go back to his Cleveland days to find a similar pattern.

It's cliche to say this offseason would be a crucial one in New England — we say that every year, and when are they not?

Let's just say this offseason is unchartered territory for the Patriots of Robert Kraft and his proxy, Belichick. In the previous two decades, you knew who the quarterback was and at least most of the coaching staff. Now, everything could be up for grabs.

A look at what this franchise needs to do in order to get back to contention:

1. The Meeting

At some point, Kraft and Belichick are going to meet. In past years, this has mostly been an informal chat. This could be a bit more formal because it's not completely assured that Belichick returns as head coach. It's likely that he is — especially since they finished with at least two victories in the final seven games; there was a real fear in the organization that 0-7 was possible, which would put all options on the table — but anything is possible, especially with how this meeting goes.

A lot of this is going to come down to Belichick and how he approaches a meeting with Kraft. The Krafts haven't loved the entire Belichick experience — they certainly loved 20 years of winning at an unprecedented clip — but there's mutual respect underneath. Kraft hasn't been shy about voicing his displeasure in private about a lot of things over the last year-plus — Brady's departure, squandering of assets, not getting much out of the 2021 spending spree, the coaching staff choices, mass exodus of coaching/front office talent out of New England — and Belichick always has his ears up. Will that make him defiant from the start? That would not be optimal.

However, there's a belief around the team that Belichick realizes his mistakes with the coaching staff and will have a plan to rectify that. That would pacify Kraft to a large extent, and the work would begin.

But no one rules out that Belichick might not react well if Kraft demands a lot of changes to Belichick's coaching staff — and it's his staff. Belichick isn't exactly a go-with-the-flow guy at 70. He's been doing things his way for over 20 years. There's likely a limit on how much input he would want to hear from Kraft. Kraft is a deft negotiator and realizes this. It will be a delicate dance.

Provided they find a way forward — and we'd put the odds at about 80 percent — what are the other important checkmarks?

2. A real coaching staff.

It's now obvious — the decision to put Matt Patricia and Joe Judge in charge of the offense has been nothing short of a disaster.

The first step is finding a new offensive coordinator. It would be the easiest thing for all involved if Bill O'Brien returns home. Will that happen? It could depend on timing. O'Brien's priority is to be reunited with his family in a stable job environment. He could definitely have that in New England, but the setup of the job would also be of interest — will he have autonomy like Josh McDaniels did, can he have input on assistants or will he be saddled with Patricia and Judge?

Timing is also important. Belichick is ... deliberate. If O'Brien gets offered a good situation before the Patriots get down to business, could he be off the board? It's possible. There's already a report that the Buccaneers may want to speak with O'Brien should they move on from Byron Leftwich, especially if Brady stays. If Titans coordinator Todd Downing gets a head coaching job, Mike Vrabel would likely have interest in his former Texans boss. McDaniels is already done with his season. If he wants to be more of a CEO head coach, his good friend O'Brien would be the perfect person to call plays for the offense. McDaniels could strike immediately.

Bottom line, it's not a sure thing that O'Brien is destined to return to the Patriots — especially if the Patriots find a way to extend their season. 

Nick Caley, whose contract is due to expire, would be the top internal candidate — and he might stay for a promotion and pay upgrade, but that's not Belichick's MO. Chad O'Shea is a former Patriots assistant who is the pass game coordinator for the Browns, but his name has not been talked about much internally in prior years. Others like Kliff Kingsbury and Rams QB coach Zac Robinson would be complete departures from the way Belichick has handled things, and would be getting into the realm of having Mac Jones play in a third new system in three years — the kind of coordinator musical chairs Belichick was deadset against throughout his time as a head coach.

Running it back with Patricia and Judge also can't be entirely ruled out, but that would seem to be a non-starter with Kraft.

No matter who comes, it's almost as important that the Patriots hire a young QB coach to learn the Patriots' way of doing things, and rekindle the clear succession plans that used to be a priority to Belichick.

While Patricia might be fine if he just concentrated on the offensive line (he might be best in a front office/Ernie Adams role), it would be worth seeing if there are other options there and at receiver, where Troy Brown's troops have largely underwhelmed. Of course, this could just be a failing higher up the food chain (Belichick, Patricia) because successful teams coach the coaches. Is that still being done at an acceptable level?

Also, it's a virtual must that special teams coordinator Cam Achord departs. This will be the second-straight season New England finishes in the bottom half of special teams DVOA. Judge would fit nicely there and be an upgrade.

Don't dismiss the notion of the Krafts, tired of seeing the brainpower trained here going out the door, possibly suggesting to Belichick that they do everything they can to retain Jerod Mayo. That would mean giving him the title of defensive coordinator, somewhat bypassing Steve Belichick (it was floated to Mayo last offseason that he and Steve could be co-defensive coordinators, and Mayo rejected that). That's another suggestion that would likely turn off Belichick.

3. Decide on the QB, and empower him.

Three team sources have indicated to BSJ that Mac Jones is believed to be safe, and that his failure this season is mostly on Belichick's coaching decision. Jones has played better over the past month because the team has given him some of the controls of the offense back.

It would be a surprise if Bailey Zappe is in direct competition for the job. Could his performance over the summer thrust him into it? Of course. It would also be prudent for the Patriots to look for a draft QB with more athletic tools to develop. Tennessee's Hendon Hooker, who tore his ACL late in the season, could be that type of draft-and-develop player.

4. Free agency decisions.

As usual, the Patriots have some key free agents this season:

S Devin McCourty
CB Jonathan Jones
WR Jakobi Meyers
WR Nelson Agholor
OTs Isaiah Wynn, Marcus Cannon
STs Matthew Slater, Cody Davis

Additionally, these players could be released or traded at a cap savings:

TE Hunter Henry
WR Kendrick Bourne
CB Jalen Mills
WR DeVante Parker
OT Trent Brown
DT Lawrence Guy
K Nick Folk
S Jabrill Peppers
LBs Mack Wilson, Raekwon McMillan
WR Ty Montgomery

Yes, the Patriots have the third-most effective cap space next season (with the ability to create more), but other teams are more creative with their cap and will increase their bottom lines. And the Patriots have a lot of work to do with their own free agents, namely Jones, Meyers and possibly McCourty.

Not sure any of their free agents need to be a priority, but Meyers would be nice, and possibly Jones.

Whether it's the draft, trade or free agency, a No. 1 cornerback to pair with Jack Jones and Marcus Jones, and one dangerous outside threat would be the priority in the NFL ranks. Those two moves would instantly upgrade both sides of the ball.

5. Hit on the draft again.

Patriots are projected to have a lot of draft capital, 11 picks, with some compensatory picks:

1st round - 18th overall
2nd round - 48
3rd round - 72
4th round - 107, 116, 134
6th round - 182, 184, 196, 208
7th round - 258

Would be tremendous to walk out, at least, with a bonafide starting offensive tackle, athletic linebacker, a true free safety, potential No. 1 cornerback, a nose tackle, quarterback and tight end.

The Patriots, after years of neglect, have started to once again have a young talent layer on this team. That is a must going forward. They need to build on the past two drafts.

It's going to be a long offseason, and we will cover each facet thoroughly. But it all starts with Kraft and Belichick, and it's safe to say they've never had a meeting like this previously. It all feeds off that.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Heading into the season finale, the Patriots placed not one but two young players on the reserve/suspended list, rookie cornerback Mac Jones and punter Jake Bailey.

Reports on both situations:

Sounds like the Patriots are putting their foot down on Jones, who had off-field issues in college. I don't think it's a huge issue, but we'll see how he reacts going forward.

With Bailey, this sounds like the team is trying to get out from under the three-year extension they gave him in August ($9,139,000 in new money with $6.275,000 fully guaranteed). A suspension would help void the guarantees. This could get hostile.

2. With the Jaguars coming back to beat the Titans on Saturday night, the Patriots can still get into the playoffs with a loss Sunday. The rest of the trifecta:

- Dolphins loss to Jets
- Steelers loss to Browns

Both games are also at 1 p.m.

3. Jerod Mayo on the mentality of the players going into this game: “Honestly, you win and you’re in, and that’s the mentality. There’s no speech or anything that a coach can give you. Either you win and you’re in the playoffs, or you lose and you go home. Plastic bag game.”

Pardon?

“That means if you lose, you get a big plastic trash bag,” Mayo said of the post-season tradition of players putting their locker contents into a plastic bag. “Trash bag game.”

4. The offseason cycle has started with the Broncos reportedly being granted permission by the Saints to interview Sean Payton, which can't happen until after the first round of the playoffs. The Broncos must be serious players because the compensation to New Orleans would at least be a first-round pick, and they're still going forward.

5. Final projected playoff seeds:

AFC

1. Chiefs (14-3)
2. Bills (13-3)
3. Bengals (12-4)
4. Jaguars (9-8)
5. Chargers (11-6)
6. Ravens (10-7)
7. Steelers (9-8)

NFC

1. Eagles (14-3)
2. 49ers (13-4)
3. Vikings (13-4)
4. Bucs (9-8)
5. Cowboys (13-4)
6. Giants (9-7-1)
7. Packers (9-8)