The contract extension for Rafael Devers takes one big item off the Red Sox' plate this winter.
The Red Sox now have their centerpiece around which to build over the next decade. Spring training will not, in fact, be dominated by distracting trade rumors and possible landing spots for Devers. He's here to stay and suddenly, the Red Sox' roster feels a lot more settled.
But with less than six weeks until the start of spring training, the Red Sox still have a sizable hole to fill. They've yet to replace the loss of Xander Bogaerts at shortstop. It's true that the Sox have two in-house options to fill the position -- Trevor Story and Kiké Hernandez -- but moving either would result in a vacancy popping up elsewhere.
If the Sox shift Hernandez to short, they suddenly have no one to play center in his stead. And if they move Story over, their only current choice to fill in at second, Christian Arroyo, has never played more than 87 games (last year) because of various injuries. And so, Chaim Bloom remains in search of a middle-of-the-diamond player to fill any one of three positions.
There's flexibility in that search. The Sox could sign or trade for a shortstop, second baseman or center fielder. But there's not much of merit remaining on the free agent market, unless you feel surprisingly enthusiastic about landing either Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias in the infield.
The pickings are even slimmer on the center field free agent market, where Jake Marisnick or Kevin Pillar are the best of a picked-over lot.
Fortunately, for the Red Sox, there's an obvious fit on trade front, and the Sox have Bogaerts, in part, to thank.
According to The Athletic, the San Diego Padres would be willing to trade either center fielder Trent Grisham or infielder Ha-Seong Kim.
Grisham is a standout defender in center, with eight defensive runs saved in each of the last three seasons. Offensively, however, Grisham is limited: his .184 batting average last year, while perhaps something of an aberration (he had hit a more respectable .242 the year before), was still the lowest of any qualified hitter in the big leagues.
But even with some pop (17 homers last year), Grisham is a offensive drag, as his career OPS of .711 and OPS+ of 99 attest. It doesn't help that he's a lefty hitter, which would give the Red Sox three lefthanded-hitting outfielders and six lefties in the lineup on most days.
By contrast, Kim is a much better fit. He hits righthanded, giving the Sox more balance in the lineup, and is a plus defender at shortstop, having registered 19 defensive runs saved at short in his first two seasons since coming from South Korea to the big leagues (nine in 2021 and 10 last season). He committed just eight errors in 131 games at short for the Padres last season. Statcast placed Kim in the 95th percentile in outs above average in 2022.
Offensively, Kim, who is being displaced at short by the signing of Bogaerts, is still a work in progress. He slashed .251/.325/.383 for a .708 OPS and 107 OPS+. But he also added 11 homers playing in a pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and in Fenway, it's not difficult to imagine lifting that homer total to 17-20. (Statcast projects that he would have hit 16 at Fenway last year).
Kim wouldn't break the bank financially. In the final two years of his four-year deal signed with the Padres, he's due $7 million in 2023 and $8 million in 2024, after which he'll have two more years of team control. By then, it's likely that Marcelo Mayer, the team's best prospect and the No. 4 pick in the 2021 draft, will be ready to compete for the starting shortstop job. The Sox could then retain Kim as a valuable depth infielder -- he can play both second and third, too -- or deal him elsewhere.
So what it take to land Kim? The Padres are looking for pitching, and, for a change, the Red Sox have some depth there. Offering Tanner Houck would likely get a deal done.
For a team that has struggled to develop homegrown pitching in the last decade or so, giving up Houck would not be easy. While splitting time between the bullpen and the rotation in the last two-plus seasons, Houck has shown flashes. He might have the ceiling of a No. 3 starter, and as the Red Sox recent history shows, those pieces aren't easily found.
But with Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello projected to be part of the rotation in 2023, and the potential for Bryan Mata to join them mid-season, the Red Sox pitching pipeline is better stocked than it's been in a while.
And, frankly, what's the alternative? A journeyman free agent off the scrap heap? Or creating another hole in the roster by shifting Story or Hernandez? What's more, there seem to be real questions about Story's suitability to return to short, his original position, after a forearm/elbow injury a few years ago. Better the Sox keep him at second, which requires shorter throws, and take advantage of his fabulous range at second, a skill sure to be more valuable now that infield shifts have been outlawed.
As for Hernandez, guess how many games he's played at short in his nine-year career? Exactly 100. Yes, he's valuable and versatile, but he's not exactly a proven commodity as an everyday shortstop.
Kim won't make anyone forget about Bogaerts from an offensive standpoint, but then, that's not realistic. Unless they surprise everyone at the 11th hour and snag Carlos Correa, that option doesn't exist -- in trade or on the free agent market. It's late.
Kim doesn't represent a perfect fit, but he's easily the best fit available, and he represents a solid choice to serve as a bridge to Mayer. At the very least, the Sox will be getting well above-average defense at a key position, and the potential is there for offensive improvement.
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In the last week, the New York Yankees made news with the hiring of not one but two former longtime general managers -- Brian Sabean and Omar Minaya -- to serve as advisors to current GM Brian Cashman.
Sabean, a native of New Hampshire, who was part of the Yankees front office in the 1990s and was credited with helping to build the teams that would go on to win four World Series in the span of five seasons, later went on lead the San Francisco Giants to three titles. Sabean is acknowledged as one of the game's best talent evaluators, with a background in scouting.
Minaya spent nine seasons at the helm of the Expos/Nationals and New York Mets, and like Sabean, has deep roots in the scouting community.
The Yankees have come under fire for becoming too analytically inclined in recent months, and some chose to view these hires as a bid to return to more traditional, old school routes and a repudiation of their reliance on data.
Cashman, who has had a track record of hiring former GMs in the past -- among them Jim Hendry and the late Kevin Towers -- insisted this was no philosophical shift and instead framed the moves as a chance to improve as an organization.
"Whatever decisions are being made, from ownership to my department to the manager, they have to made with access to all information,'' Cashman told the New York Post. "If we're making decisions without all of it, you're gonna be caught short....This was just an opportunity to grab two people that I think will benefit us and we're excited about it.''
That thinking is in line with how Theo Epstein operated when he was GM of the Red Sox. Epstein chose Bill Lajoie, a longtime scout and executive (he was GM of the 1984 Detroit Tigers) to be his top talent evaluator. If the Sox were close to making a trade or thinking about signing a free agent, Epstein first wanted Lajoie to take a look at the player and give his input.
Epstein thought there was value in tapping both sides of the evaluation equation -- analytics and more traditional, hands-on, in-the-field scouting.
"The way to see the player most accurately,'' Epstein said, "to get the truest picture of the player, is to put both lenses together and look through them simultaneously and you get a pretty darn accurate picture of the player. That's the approach we used with the Red Sox.''
For now, the Red Sox lack that seasoned voice with prior executive experience in their front office. I asked Chaim Bloom if he had given any consideration to bringing in a former veteran GM to fill that role.
"Yes, we have explored that,'' said Bloom. "Mentorship is so important in this business. It has to be the right match and mutual fit for the organization, our leadership group and of course, for the potential new addition so that everyone flourishes.''
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Given that news of the Rafael Devers signing broke just two days after Red Sox principal owner John Henry was roundly booed at the NHL Winter Classic, held at Fenway, some have chosen to connect the dots.
Is it possible that Henry was so shaken by the in-person reception in his own ballpark that he prodded CEO Sam Kennedy and Bloom to up their latest offer to Devers' camp and get the deal done quickly?
Possible, yes. Likely, no?
By all accounts, the negotiations to successfully extend Devers had been gaining momentum in recent weeks, and were likely headed to a conclusion anyway. And given the complexities and ramifications involved in a deal of such magnitude, it seems a bit far-fetched that talks could dramatically turn so quickly.
Still, I couldn't help think of a story from 17 years ago that may shed some light on Henry's decision-making and his habit of being swayed by public opinion.
In 2006, the Red Sox radio rights were up for renewal. Then, as now, the team's rights were held by WEEI Radio. At the time, interest in the team was arguably at an all-time high. The Red Sox had lost to the Yankees in heartbreaking fashion in the ALCS in 2003, rallied to win their first title in 86 years in 2004 and in 2005, reached the playoffs for the third straight season.
As such, there was competition for the broadcast rights. Peter Smyth, a local radio executive caught the Red Sox' eye with his bid to buy a WBOS-FM n the market, use Red Sox broadcasts as the centerpiece and mount a challenge to WEEI by starting a second all-sports radio station in the market -- this was several years before the arrival of 98.5 The Sports Hub did just that.
The bid gained steam as the negotiations continued, and it got to the point where, the feeling within Fenway was that the Red Sox, led by Henry, were indeed leaning toward leaving WEEI and accepting the offer from the competing group.
Then, something happened to alter their plans.
On an early-season night at Fenway, the Red Sox had a long rain delay. Following several hours, the game was eventually postponed because of the weather and field conditions.
The next morning, on the popular ''Dennis and Callahan'' morning show on WEEI, the two acerbic hosts blistered the Red Sox for their decision to keep fans waiting in the cold and rain for hours, insisting that it was merely a ruse to sell more beer and other concessions. (Never mind that, in this instance, as with many others, the decision to wait and ultimately postpone the game was made in conjunction with Major League Baseball).
For most of the four-hour show, with the hosts skewering the Sox, callers piled on, charging the Sox with consumer fraud and worse. It was a morning-long attack on the organization.
Coincidentally, that same day was when the Sox were due to make a call on where their future radio rights would be going. Everyone arrived at Fenway fully expecting to hear Henry say the team would go with the new bid from Smyth's group and leave WEEI behind when the current deal expired.
Instead, to the shock of almost everyone, Henry announced that the Sox would be staying put on WEEI.
Henry had caught some of the "Dennis and Callahan Show'' that morning and told those in attendance (and I'm paraphrasing here); "If they're killing us when they're our partners, what will they do if we're not?''
Henry worried that such criticism would only intensify if the Sox left WEEI and helped kick-start a competitor. And so, the Sox remained on WEEI and have been there ever since. (To be fair, there were some suggestions that WEEI sweetened its offer at the last minute, and that could have been a factor as well).
Does this anecdote provide conclusive evidence that Henry was swayed by the torrent of boos he faced? Nope.
But it does suggest there's a precedent in place for the organization to change direction on a big deal based on public reaction and outside judgment.
