The Patriots were facing an uphill battle when they travel to Buffalo this weekend even before the events of this past week.
New England has lost five of their past six matchups, with the only victory being the wind-swept game on Dec. 6, 2021.
In the last four losses, the Patriots have been outscored 142-57. New England wasn't even competitive for most of their 24-10 home loss on Dec. 1, and once they fell behind 17-7 before halftime, it seemed like they were more interested in not getting embarrassed (like they did in the postseason 47-17) than winning the game — which led to player outbursts on the sideline and locker room following the game.
Like we said, an uphill battle for the Patriots (8-8) at Buffalo (12-3).
And now, when you factor in the emotional component for the Bills and their fans in relation to the Damar Hamlin situation — Hamlin today FaceTimed his teammates and told them, 'Love you boys' — the challenge seems almost insurmountable.
Almost.
The situations are very different, but there is something to be learned from the Ravens' visit to the Steelers late in the 2017 season. It was the first game after Pittsburgh linebacker Ryan Shazier was taken off the field with a serious spinal cord injury.
Like the Patriots, the Ravens were facing a dominant, talented team (Pittsburgh would finish 13-3, Ravens 9-7) that had beaten them badly earlier in the season (26-9) and on the road on Sunday Night Football in an emotional atmosphere.
James Harrison took the field shirtless like Shazier did. Players wore t-shirts with Shazier's No. 50. His helmet rested on the Steelers' bench. His jersey too. His face and #Shalieve stitched on specially-designed cleats.
Tough atmosphere for the Ravens, for sure.
"We are riding with that guy," coach Mike Tomlin said of Shazier after the game. "He is strong. He is strengthening us."
And they almost pulled off the upset. The Steelers eventually prevailed 39-38 with a late field goal, but it was far from a secure victory.
Again, this is much more emotional due to the circumstances with Hamlin's on-field situation, and you could argue the Bills are already more dominant than the Patriots than the Steelers were over their rivals. But in extreme situations, you're looking for any similar games.
What really stood out was, as you would expect, the Steelers came out flying. They led 14-0 and 17-7, feeding off the emotion of the evening.
But once that subsided, the Ravens found their footing and outscored the Steelers 24-3 to take a 31-20 at the end of the third quarter.
But Pittsburgh, behind Ben Roethlisberger's 506 yards, won the fourth quarter 19-7 and walked off with a victory that won the AFC North. They headed to the hospital after the game to deliver Shazier his t-shirt and hat.
This game, if the Patriots have a chance, is going to come down to the Patriots weathering the emotional storm early. The Bills are going to come out flying. The Patriots don't have to win that portion, but they can't lose it. They just need to hang on.
Then they need to take advantage of the time when the Bills' adrenaline will subside. They must let the offense go on the attack. They have to try to win the game, not just hold on and hope Josh Allen throws them some balls.
If the Patriots stay in the game heading into the fourth quarter, they absolutely must pull out of all the stops in all three phases to finish it off. They have to keep pressing the issue. The Bills will be coming back — that's a given. The Patriots have to win the game, not just hold on. That will not happen, not in that atmosphere.
Just ask the Ravens.
A closer look at the matchup with coaches film and our game pick. Not much has changed since the last matchup. Here's our two reviews from that matchup, you should base your prep on those two stories:
Bedard's Breakdown (Defense): That's the best the Patriots could muster with a whole year to prepare?
Bedard's Breakdown (Offense): The icing on Patriots' offensive implosion - now Mac Jones' mechanics have fallen off
OVERALL WEIGHTED DVOA: Bills 2nd, Patriots 17th
OFFENSE
Bills DVOA: 4th overall, 2nd pass, 11th rush
Patriots D: 1st overall, 2nd pass, 8th rush
DEFENSE
Bills DVOA: 8th overall, 9th pass, 3rd rush
Patriots off: 27th overall, 24th pass, 25th rush
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA
Patriots 29th, Bills 7th
MATCHUP ADVANTAGES***premium***
Kyle Dugger vs. TE Dawson Knox: The Bills only have one real tight end, and Knox is not as good of an athlete as TJ Hockenson is. So this should be in Dugger's wheelhouse. Let's hope he hasn't forgotten the throwaway TD he gave up early in the playoff game. It kind of set the tone.
Deep threats vs. S Jaquan Johnson: Ironically, I had Damar Hamlin as a matchup advantage for the Patriots in the first matchup — but of course the Patriots didn't even try to exploit it with their screenfest. Johnson I guess would take his plays and he's an even worse player.
LT Trent Brown vs. DE AJ Epenesa/Boogie Basham: No Von Miller means this is a much easier assignment.
MATCHUP DISADVANTAGES
RG Cole Strange vs. DT Ed Oliver: The rookie guard got a breather last week and still struggled. It's back in the frying pan now because Oliver is coming off one of the best games of his career. Huge matchup here.
RT Conor McDermott vs. DE Gregory Rosseau: The Bills' end is very explosive and the kind of player that Cajuste struggles against. McDermott was a -8 for me in the first matchup.
Josh Allen vs. the world: The Patriots don't do the same thing all the time so they will throw the kitchen sink at Allen, just like they did at Gillette by changing rush and coverage on just about every snap. And he answered everything in that game. I really don't know how they can throw him off. Good news: the Bills get a case of the drops at times. Hope for that.
WR Stefon Diggs vs. Jonathan Jones: He should call JC Jackson, they can commiserate about how the coaches did nothing to help them. This is what you get when you don't threaten Josh Allen (20 percent pressure) and get left one-on-one with Diggs. Same song, different verse.
GAME PLAN POINTS
1. Invite the run: Patriots should just dare the Bills to run the ball, ala Peyton Manning, by playing with seven defensive backs most of the game. Roll the dice. Have Jabrill Peppers/Mack Wilson/Raekwon McMillan play middle linebacker, play three deep (McCourty, Bryant, Dugger) and play five coverage players underneath to take away the little 5-yard slants and hitches the Bills overly rely on. Come on, Bill. You have a whole year to get ready for this. You're healthy on defense. Please tell me you have something up your sleeve other than the same old stuff.
2. Take Diggs away: I don't care if you play 9 on 10 with a constant double team — he's really the only weapon for Allen. Take him out of the game.
3. Spy Allen: When it gets to third down, one athlete has to be assigned to Allen as a spy. I don't care about their coverage. Allen is most dangerous when he's running around. Keep him in the pocket.
4. THROW THE BALL DOWN THE FIELD. Stop coaching scared. Go for broke.
GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Bills -6.5. O/U: 43.5.
Bedard's record: 14-2 straight up, 13-3 vs. spread
Sure, I wrote that they have a chance, like the Ravens. But this would be much more shocking — at least the Ravens had an offense that could score (413 total yards).
If the Patriots can score enough to stay in the game, Belichick should go buy some MegaMillions tickets.
Bedard's Pick: Bills 33, Patriots 17