It was just a matter of time.
As the Patriots embarked on their very own chapter from the NFL's official "How To Ruin Your Young QB" Playbook — normally authored by the likes of the Jets, Browns, Bears, Panthers and Cardinals — they've been systematically checking all the boxes with astonishing efficiency:
- Change coordinators
- Change the offense
- Coach them poorly
- Don't give them adequate pass protection
The bonus section comes once you've completed those four tasks ... then look out. Mac Jones descended the final gates of QB hell against the Bills, especially as the game went on: his mechanics have fallen off a cliff. That descending spiral leads to reactions like this ...
— sportsvids99 (@sportsvids991) December 2, 2022
... and gets his teammates defending him in the locker room and blaming the offensive coaching.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
But let's deal with the tangible things on the field after a viewing of the coaching film, all of which I believe to be true.
1. The offensive gameplan wasn't great, but it wasn't as bad as the players made it out to be.
It's quite obvious Bill Belichick went into this game thinking the only way the Patriots had a chance against the Bills by getting the game in the 20s, that they could not out-score Josh Allen. Pretty wise path if you ask me.
To accomplish that, the Patriots' defense was going to need to encourage the run and make the Bills go methodically down the field. They largely did that and, sort of, "held" them to 24 points (I think we all know the Bills could have easily gotten into the 30s if they wanted to or felt the Patriots were a threat to get into the 20s).
The Patriots' offense would need to do its part by going on long, methodical scoring drives that ran clock. To accomplish that, they used a lot of screens, short passes and Jones' favorite "the quick game" to take small chunks. I don't love that approach, but it does make some sense IF you execute at a high level. That didn't happen anywhere on the offense, including the QB.
I don't think this was about not getting blown out ... until Belichick passed on going for it on 4th and 7 down 24-7 with 12:17 left. What are we doing here?
2. The quick game, after the first play to Marcus Jones, did in fact "suck."
Here's the yardage from the quick game favored by Patricia in this game: 48 (touchdown) .. Zero, incomplete, 3, 6, 3, -5. So the final six quick game plays averaged 1.2 yards.
Not all of this was on the plays. Some of it had to do with a lack of execution, mostly by tackles Trent Brown and Conor McDermott, who couldn't cut block to save their lives.
And even when the Patriots tried to throw down field, they couldn't get to those plays again because ...
3. The protection was, once again, atrocious.
The Patriots allowed 39 percent pressure (30 is high ... 40 is likely a loss). Since Jones became the full-time starter against the Jets in Week 8, these are the pressure rates: 49, 38, 35, 40 and 39.
That is unsustainable for a pocket QB. Period. Tom Brady would melt under that much accumulated pressure and I've seen him do it.
I do think the offensive line, with McDermott at RT, was part of the thinking in playing so conservative in the passing game. I still don't know why they did that. Are you telling me the Patriots would have been worse with Mike Onwenu at RT and James Ferentz at RG? I highly doubt it.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
4. Mac Jones was not good in this game - way too many high passes.
Starting late in the second quarter, Jones' mechanics started to break down. It was a variety of things — double hitches, stepping in the bucket, his front shoulder flying open, getting up on his toes — but it led to a ton of high passes, which often put his receivers in harm's way, including that late throw to Jakob Meyers in the end zone when he took a head shot.
These are all of them, and we go over the plays in the video below.
SECOND QUARTER
3-10-NE 25 (4:22) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to H.Henry (T.Johnson).
3-7-NE 18 (2:16) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to J.Meyers (T.Johnson).
2-10-BUF 33 (:26) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to H.Henry pushed ob at BUF 29 for 4 yards (T.White).
THIRD QUARTER
1-10-NE 20 (11:45) M.Jones pass short right to N.Agholor to NE 26 for 6 yards (T.White).
2-14-BUF 49 (9:17) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass intended for H.Henry INTERCEPTED by J.Poyer at BUF 36. J.Poyer ran ob at BUF 36 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to H.Henry (J.Poyer).
FOURTH QUARTER
2-7-NE 44 (6:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to T.Thornton.
3-2-BUF 41 (5:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to D.Parker pushed ob at BUF 32 for 9 yards (M.Milano).
1-10-BUF 32 (5:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to R.Stevenson to BUF 28 for 4 yards (T.Edmunds).
2-6-BUF 28 (4:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to R.Stevenson.
4-1-BUF 23 (4:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to T.Thornton to BUF 11 for 12 yards (J.Poyer).
1-20-BUF 21 (3:29) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to D.Parker (D.Hamlin)
2-20-BUF 21 (3:23) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to J.Smith to BUF 15 for 6 yards (C.Basham).
3-14-BUF 15 (2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to J.Meyers (D.Hamlin).
1-8-BUF 8 (2:54) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to H.Henry.
As you can see, most of the issues came when the game was out of reach. And the Patriots ran it just 13 times, which doesn't help. And a QB progressively getting worse as the game goes on often is a result of pressure faced.
But Jones also missed some throws that could have made the score a lot closer. He is not without blame in this. If he played better, the Patriots had a chance. He did not, and they didn't. It's not all about Patricia.
Working backwards, here are my minus throw tabulations for Jones:
Bills: 7 (not all off-target throws are minus throws, especially if they are completed)
Vikings: 1
Jets: 1
Colts: 2
Jets: 1
Ravens: 5
Steelers: 4
Dolphins: 2.
So 7 against the Bills, and 16 in his previous 7 games combined.
This is a quarterback that looked broken at the end of this game, similar to how I viewed Trevor Lawrence when he played the Patriots in Week 17 in the middle of his poor situation for a young QB in Urban Meyer's first and only season as an NFL coach. And now he looks capable in his second season after a coaching change. I wonder what the difference is?
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
Here are the positional ratings against the Bills:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (1 out of 5)
Think we've illustrated that, yes, Jones was not put in a good position, but he left plays on the field that he should make. There are no excuses for that. ... A week after having a Completion Percentage Above Expectation of +7.7 (ranked 3rd in NFL for Week 12 vs. Vikings), he was a -4.5 against the Bills. Only his Colts and Steelers performances were worse.
Running backs (3 out of 5)
Rhamondre Stevenson gets extra credit for carrying the entire load but this was one of his lesser performances due to two fumbles (the first, even though Jones took the blame after the game, appeared to be on Stevenson), a drop and one hurry allowed.
Receivers (3.5 out of 5)
Take Hunter Henry — who had a brutal blocking game — out of this group and they all did their jobs very well. ... DeVante Parker continued to play strong and needs more opportunities down the field. ... Tyquan Thornton made two plus catches. ... Marcus Jones' speed is absurd. Of course he should play offense more. A Baby Tyreek a little bit. ... Meyers is obviously battling through a painful shoulder injury.
Offensive line (1.5 out of 5)
Way too much pressure allowed when the Bills weren't even at full strength without Von Miller, and the run blocking isn't great either. ... I've had my fill, again, of watching McDermott. No one needs to see that again. He was brutal. ... Trent Brown was battling an illness. Hope that was it, because his give-a-crap factor looked low. ... Mike Onwenu is starting to give up more than his fair share of plays. ... Very good games from David Andrews and Cole Strange. This was the rookie's second-best game of the season (Lions).
THREE UP
Marcus Jones: Can they figure out how to pair Jones and Thornton at the same time? Some actual speed on the field for the Patriots!
Rhamondre Stevenson: How much can one man do?
David Andrews: Played very strong in his return.
THREE DOWN
Conor McDermott: Really should have played Onwenu at RT.
Trent Brown: He needs to play well next weekend or this could be trouble.
Mac Jones: More worrying about mechanics (time to make a Tom House call) than the playcalls, please.