Championship weekend for the teams that have qualified. We’ve covered many of these teams already, so I am going to take a different tact.
One potential Patriots target for every single team.
NO. 11 UTAH vs NO. 4 USC in Las Vegas, 8:00 p.m. on FOX
USC WR #3 Jordan Addison (6-foot, 175 pounds) vs. Utah TE #86 Dalton Kincaid (6-4, 240)
Addison, last year's Biletnikoff winner given to the country’s top WR, is an incredibly smooth player. He’s not as good as current Saint Chris Olave (better ball tracking) but I’d put him in that range. He’s fast, a good route runner, and he has elite quickness coming out of breaks. His instincts allow him to challenge a defense at all levels. His matchup against Utah’s CB Clark Phillips III (#1) is a good one.
OG Andrew Vorhooes (#72) is a 6th year senior who has also played tackle. The positional versatility will be attractive to the Patriots. I have him as one of my top 5 guards. We also covered DE Tuli Tuipulotu (#49) two weeks ago. Tuipulotu is a versatile DL who could play strongside end in the Patriots scheme. He leads the country in with 12.5 sacks.
Kincaid crushed USC the last time they played. He finished with 16 catches, 234 yards, 1 and TD. Many of those catches went for first downs which is a great measuring stick for a TE. He’s willing to stick his nose into a block but that’s not his game. He’s a solid hands catcher, does a good job on 50/50 balls by using his size, and turns into a solid runner after the catch.
TOLEDO vs. OHIO in Detroit, Noon on ESPN
Toledo OLB #91 Jamal Hines (6-3, 250) vs. Ohio QB #7 Kurtis O’Rourke (6-5, 216)
Let’s start with an important statement. I don’t think either one of these guys will get drafted this year. O’Rourke should return next year but he’ll be a player to watch. Good size, bunch of experience and he’s having a good season with 3,246 passing yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 69% completion percentage.
Hines is an intriguing development prospect with a solid frame. He’s an All-MAC type who continues to be productive. He has over 20 career sacks but also offers the ability to drop into coverage.
NO. 10 KANSAS ST vs. NO. 3 TCU in Dallas, Noon. on ABC
Kansas St CB #23 Julius Brents (6-4, 202) vs. TCU WR #1 Quentin Johnson (6’4, 215)
This is what I wrote about Brents last year, “He hasn’t played consistently enough this year to be a top prospect but he’s a potential sleeper. He’s got great size with good speed and upper body strength to be effective in press coverage. He’s not quite the standard mold for the Pats but does have similarities to former Patriot, Brandon Browner.” Brents has been better this year with 3 INTs, 3 PBUs and 6th on the defense in tackles. His matchup with top prospect, Quentin Johnson, is key in this game.
Kansas St has a couple of other good targets in Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah (#91) who is bendy rusher who has 20 career sacks. LG Cooper Beebe (#50). who I have as one of the best guards in the country. RB Deuce Vaughn (#22) is a Darren Sproles clone.
Quentin Johnson is one of the biggest receivers in the draft. He can test a defense with his speed and he’s especially dangerous after the catch (surprisingly so given his size). He needs some route-running polish but when they need a big play, they will look in his direction. He’s been playing through an ankle injury. Johnson is likely to be a first-rounder.
COASTAL CAROLINA at TROY, 3:30 p.m. on ESPN
Coastal Carolina CB #7 Lance Boykin (6-3, 200) vs. Troy LB #2 Carlton Martial (5’9, 210)
Martial is a ball magnet. He’s second in the country in TPG and he has 112 on the year. He lacks NFL size (or even ideal size for some high school programs), but someone will take a chance on him late or as a PFA because he’s a mouse to cheese.
Boykin is a team captain with a lot of length on the outside. He has 8 PBU and 2 INTs this year while also being strong in run support (2nd on the team in tackles). His matchups at the Shrine Bowl against quicker, more talented players like BC’s Zay Flowers will be important in assessing where he falls on Day 3. Also, if you’re watching this game, DE Josaiah Stewart (#0) is from Everett. He’s an underclassman but he already has 16 career sacks.
NO. 14 LSU vs. NO. 1 GEORGIA in Atlanta, 4:00 p.m. on CBS
LSU WR #7 Kayson Boutte (6-0, 205) vs. Georgia TE #0 Darnell Washington (6-7, 270)
Boutte hasn’t had the year that was expected and that he wanted. He was arguably the top WR in the draft and now it’s questionable if he’s a first-rounder. I talked to an LSU captain last year at the Senior Bowl and he said that Boutte is a “dude” and they knew he was special right away as a freshman. I’ve long thought D.J. Moore was a good comp for Boutte. His matchup against fellow top prospect, Georgia CB Kelee Ringo (#5), will be a key storyline.
LSU Edge rusher, BJ Ojulari (#18) will match up against Georgia’s talented tackles, especially top prospect Broderick Jones (#59).
From a Georgia perspective, I am going to cheat a bit on this one. The name I would have given you is LB Nolan Smith but he’s out with an injury. So, we’ll go back to one of my binkies. Darnell Washington is a physical specimen. Sometimes scouts take the “alien test”. How many guys in the world are that size, move that fast, and have that type of agility? Things that you can’t coach. Washington looks like an offensive tackle that can hop over defensive backs. He still needs development, and I don’t think he’ll break receiving records in the NFL. I’ve been saying for two years he reminds me of current Packer, Mercedes Lewis. That fits exactly what the Patriots need for their scheme.
Worth calling out, DT Jalen Carter (#88) will be a top 5 pick. I compared him last year to a smaller version of Richard Seymour.
FRESNO STATE AT BOISE STATE, 4 p.m. on FOX
Fresno State WR #5 Jalen Moreno-Cropper (6-1, 172) vs. Boise State S #0 JL Skinner (6-4, 220)
While Moreno-Cropper is mostly positioned out wide, he’s a slot at the next level. He has great change of direction ability, which is a key prerequisite for that role. He’s having another all-conference season with 74 catches, 984 yards, and 5 TDs. His QB, Jake Haener (#9) is also a Day 3 prospect.
Skinner is long, has good striking ability, and covers a lot of ground. He's not as versatile but similar build to Ravens top draft pick Kyle Hamilton. I see him as a box safety as the next level. He needs to clean up his tackling technique and eyes (can get sucked into the LOS on play action) but he’s an interesting player given the evolving NFL game.
NO. 22 UCF at NO. 18 TULANE, 4:00 p.m. on ABC
UCF QB #10 John Rys Plumlee (6-0, 200) vs. Tulane OLB #2 Dorian Williams (6-2, 230)
Here is one of my favorite sleepers for the Patriots, but not as a QB, as a WR. John Rys Plumlee could be the next Julian Edelman (coming out of Kent State). I’m really high on him. He started his career as QB at Ole Miss before moving to WR when Carolina Panther draft pick, Matt Corral beat him out. Played two years for the Rebels before transferring to UCF to play QB. His position at the next level will be back at WR and he has enough speed, juice, and shiftiness to play the slot. On the defensive side of the ball, lookout for CB Davonte Brown (#7).
Dorian Williams is a heady player, strong tackler (104 this year) and 3-year starter. While he’s on the smaller side for the NFL game, he is good in coverage. I expect to see him at the Senior Bowl and watching him against top competition will help his evaluation.
NO. 9 CLEMSON vs. NO. 23 UNC, 8:00 p.m. on ABC
Clemson LB #22 Trenton Simpson (6-3, 240) vs. UNC WR #11 Josh Downs (5-10, 175)
Clemson has some high-profile prospects. I’m not picking Myles Murphy (#98) because I don’t think he’s going to be there when they pick in the first round. I see DT Bryan Breese (#11) as a future Justin Smith. Love his upside. If he drops some weight, put him as a 3-4 DE and let him be a stalwart on the edge. That said, I don’t love his tape this year.
So, the guy to focus on is Trenton Simpson. For those of you that want more speed at the LB position, Simpson is a good test case. I don’t think he’s a first-rounder like you’ll see on other websites but he has significant traits and that’s more valued than college production.
K.J. Henry (#5) is an under-the-radar prospect that I like. He was a high-level recruit who had some ups and downs throughout his career. We’ve covered him and I think he’s athletic enough to be an OLB in the Patriots scheme. I see him as a slight upgrade over Anfernee Jennings in his current role.
Here’s what I wrote about Josh Downs last year. “He’s a breakout player and will be a household name next year. He is far and away the most productive skilled player for the Tar Heels. Good body control, very good speed, and dangerous with the ball in hands. He’s a good one.”
The issue with Downs is not speed, he has plenty and he’s a big play waiting to happen from the slot. I think Tyler Lockett is a good comparison. His actual size (vs. listed) will be important. I think he’s a Day 2 pick.
PURDUE at NO. 2 MICHIGAN, 8 p.m. on FOX
Purdue TE #87 Payne Durham (6-5, 255) vs. Michigan NT #58 Mazi Smith (6-3, 337)
I like WR Charlie Jones (#15), who leads the Big Ten in receptions and is one of the country’s best returners. I’ll focus elsewhere since the Patriots invested in Marcus Jones last season to be the primary returner. TE Payne Durham is the pick.
Durham will line-up in line, but he isn’t a guy you run behind. His 54 catches and 8 TDs lead the Big Ten for TEs. He has 4 TDs and the last 3 games and played well against a good Illinois defense. Smart player who has made over 30 career starts. Also, CB Corey Trice (#23) as a potential late round or PFA flier. He struggled with injuries earlier in his career, but he has a unique physical profile and could have some positional versatility.
The Patriots need to invest in their interior defensive line. The good news is that it’s a much better IDL class this year and I have Mazi Smith in my top 5 NT’s. Although I should mention that Smith was charged this week with carrying a loaded weapon during a traffic stop in October. Michigan continues to stick by him.
There are several Wolverines that fit the Patriots scheme, not to mention it’s a program they’ve targeted since Jim Harbaugh has been a coach. See more prospects below.
Recapping Last Week
NO. 2 MICHIGAN: NT Mazi Smith had 4 tackles from his NT position. Not a difference maker in the pass game but he does have some ability to rush…RG Zak Zinter had a good game. Both long TD runs in the fourth qtr were behind him…C Olusegun Oluwatimi is pretty effective on the move. Michigan asks him to pull a decent amount. He makes the calls for the line. Michigan ran for 252 yards (over 7 YPC)…TE Luke Schoonmaker only had 1 catch but was competitive in the run game…DE Mike Morris only had 1 tackle. He was injured so he didn’t play a full clip, but the Ohio State tackles held him in check…CB DJ Turner had 4 tackles including 3 solo. Nothing in this game hurt his draft stock…RB Blake Corum dressed but he wasn’t fully healthy. He only rushed twice for 6 yards, and he’ll now have knee surgery. Michigan leaned on underclassman Donovan Edwards who is a gamebreaker with his speed and elusiveness in the open field. Michigan did a good job blocking him into open space…LT Ryan Hayes struggled with power at times but had a relatively clean game. As mentioned above, Michigan’s offensive line was the difference in the game…WR Ronnie Bell finished with 3 catches for 46 yards…K Jake Moody was 1 for 2 on FGs and hit his extra points. The made field goal was from 49 yards and the one he missed was from 57…I mentioned last week I am a big fan of Everett native CB Mike Sainristil but he had a steep hill to climb in this game. He wasn’t perfect but hiked that hill. He gave up the first TD but also finished with 7 tackles (no fear in the run game) and 2 PBU (including one in the end zone to deny a TD). Word is that Harbaugh is raving about him as a player.
NO. 5 OHIO STATE: QB C.J. Stroud went 31 for 48 with 349 yards and 2 TDs. However, it wasn’t the game Ohio State needed from him. His 2 INTs were late in the 4th qtr when he was pressing. Not the best decisions but both hit the hands of his target before being picked. He made some great throws (throws with anticipation and the accuracy with that is strong)…LT Paris Johnson Jr. had a false start on the first drive and beat for a sack at the end of the game. Consistency will be important because otherwise he was good.…RT Dawand Jones also had a false start. He’s difficult to get around in the pass game. Conditioning will be important to his technique. There’s a lot of Trent Brown similarities…DE Zach Harrison had 4 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PBU, and 2 QBH. He was active and I loved his downfield hustle…WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn’t play due to injury. Ohio State should announce he’ll be healthy for the postseason and hope it helps their playoff chances with the committee…OC Luke Wypler helped lead the ground game. Ohio State wasn’t fully healthy in the backfield, but they ran for 143 yards on almost 5 YPC. He’s a good player…LB Tommy Eichenberg led the Buckeyes with 7 tackles and 1 PBU. He was playing with 2 broken thumbs…TE Cade Stover didn’t have the best day. While he was good at blocking, he only had 4 catches for 14 yards. He had a target in the end zone that should have been a TD. He also had a bad personal foul in the 4th qtr..…FS Lathan Ransom had 4 tackles and had a strong blitz. But he was flagged for PI in the 4th qtr and was outrun on a long TD by Donovan Edwards…SS Ronnie Hickman had 3 tackles, including 1 TFL, and 1 PBU. He had a very bad PI penalty in the end zone. Needed better awareness to get his head around…RB Miyan Williams played through injury which NFL scouts will like but he was limited to 9 touches for 35 yards.
