They haven't seen each other in about 11 months, but not much has changed when it comes to Josh Allen going up against the Patriots' defense.
Some of the players have changed for the Patriots, but Allen is well-versed on what he is going to see.
"Their secondary – it's a Patriots secondary, guys that are smart, tough football players that can play multiple spots," he told reporters this week. "They play man from zone looks and zone from man looks, and I think that's why a lot of people struggle against them.
"They can show you so many different things and do so many different things. So trusting our base rules, trusting my eyes and making the smart decision and living to fight another down."
Allen isn't the young mistake-prone kid the Patriots used to easily rattle. In his first five starts against them (1-4), Allen completed about 50 percent of his passes three TDs, six INTS and was sacked 9 times.
In his last four starts against New England (3-1), Allen has completed 67 percent of his passes at nearly 8 yards per attempt, with 13 TDs, zero INTs and he's only been sacked twice.
Probably where Allen has made the biggest difference is using his legs.
He's gone from being sacked nine times and rushing 27 times at 4.5 per carry, to two sacks, 28 rushes and 7.3 yards per carry — just against the Patriots.
This season he leads the Bills in rushing with 561 yards on 81 carries (6.9 average) and 5 rushing touchdowns.
"Allen’s the leading rusher, so that tells you all you need to know about what you have to defend every time he touches the ball, it could be any number of things and does them all well," Bill Belichick said. "Great player, certainly an MVP candidate. He does a lot for their team in a lot of ways.
"He's very dangerous out of the pocket, he's dangerous in the pocket. So just team defense. Playing with our leverage, using our teammates help, them being where they need to be, being aggressive. He's a hard guy to get and you can't just stand there and watch him throw because he'll throw it pretty good, too. So it'll be a challenge for us."
How much the Patriots can limit Allen's rushing will be a huge key in this game. His runs for first downs are just back-breaking for a defense and can wear a unit out.
"He’s a very dangerous passer, but I think we’ll stay with that instead of him running all over us," Matthew Judon told reporters this week.
A closer look at the matchup with coaches film and our game pick:
OVERALL DVOA: Bills 1st, Patriots 11th
OFFENSE
Bills DVOA: 6th overall, 3rd pass, 17th rush
Patriots D: 1st overall, 1st pass, 12th rush
DEFENSE
Bills DVOA: 3rd overall, 7th pass, 3rd rush
Patriots off: 25th overall, 22nd pass, 24th rush
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA
Patriots 9th, Bills 3rd
MATCHUP ADVANTAGES
Matthew Judon vs. LT David Quessenberry: Dion Dawkins is out, so this marks the second-straight week that Judon will be going up against a slower, much worse backup. Judon was good against the Vikings, but he did not continue his hot pace (zero sacks). He will need to dominate for the Patriots to have a chance.
Kyle Dugger vs. TE Dawson Knox: The Bills only have one real tight end, and Knox is not as good of an athlete as TJ Hockenson is. So this should be in Dugger's wheelhouse. Let's hope he hasn't forgotten the throwaway TD he gave up early in the playoff game. It kind of set the tone.
Deep threats vs. S Damar Hamlin: If the Patriots can protect Mac Jones, they should have opportunities against the second-year safety who, with Micah Hyde out, is playing free safety opposite Jordan Poyer (who is much slower coming back from injury). Hamlin does not tackle well, and he's a bit clueless at times. I would take aim right at him with Tiquan Thornton or Nelson Agholor.
LT Trent Brown vs. DE AJ Epenesa/Boogie Basham: No Von Miller means this is a much easier assignment.
MATCHUP DISADVANTAGES
RG Cole Strange vs. DT Ed Oliver: The rookie guard got a breather last week and still struggled. It's back in the frying pan now because Oliver is coming off one of the best games of his career. Huge matchup here.
RT Yodny Cajuste vs. DE Gregory Rosseau: The Bills' end is very explosive and the kind of player that Cajuste struggles against.
Josh Allen vs. the world: The Patriots don't do the same thing all the time so they will throw the kitchen sink at Allen, just like they did at Gillette by changing rush and coverage on just about every snap. And he answered everything in that game. I really don't know how they can throw him off. Good news: the Bills get a case of the drops at times. Hope for that.
WR Isaiah McKenzie vs. Myles Bryant: McKenzie had the game of his life in this matchup last year, that's why I wouldn't be surprised to see Jack Jones get the call, or at least some critical-down reps.
GAME PLAN POINTS
1. Invite the run: Patriots should just dare the Bills to run the ball, ala Peyton Manning, by playing with seven defensive backs most of the game. Roll the dice. Have Jabrill Peppers/Mack Wilson/Raekwon McMillan play middle linebacker, play three deep (McCourty, Bryant, Dugger) and play five coverage players underneath to take away the little 5-yard slants and hitches the Bills overly rely on. Come on, Bill. You have a whole year to get ready for this. You're healthy on defense. Please tell me you have something up your sleeve than the same old stuff.
2. Force them into third and at least medium: In the playoff whitewashing, the Bills had 29 first downs and only 7 were converted on third down. That means the Bills converted 76 percent of the time on first or second down. That's absurd. That's CFL ball. The Patriots had a chance in the second matchup because (one score in fourth quarter) because they forced the Bills into 12 third downs (they were 3 of 4 on 4th down), where the Patriots love to run their designer gameplan stuff. In the playoff game, the Bills wised up and stayed out of third down. Hence, the Patriots were toast. If New England can force at least 12 third downs, they have a chance.
3. Spy Allen: When it gets to third down, one athlete has to be assigned to Allen as a spy. I don't care about their coverage. Allen is most dangerous when he's running around. Keep him in the pocket.
4. Hit Knox off the line: He had way too many free releases last year, and he killed the Patriots. Have to hit the TE as he releases to disrupt timing.
5. Get under center and use playaction: I say this every week, but it's especially true this week — the Bills are very aggressive at LB and safety and can be sucked in by good playaction. That's where you will find big plays. Too much shotgun and gun-run plays into their hands. They see it in practice very week.
GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Bills -3.5. O/U: 43.5.
Bedard's record: 9-2 straight up, 8-3 vs. spread
This line has dropped two points as the week has gone on, but I think they were fooled by the weather forecast which now has the wind relatively calm by kickoff. Even so, outside of a hurricane, a windy game would favor Allen over Jones. Allen the offense are a bit inconsistent and I think the Patriots will get them a few times, but I don't have much confidence in the pressure being a real factor for Allen, and you need that to get mistakes.
The biggest mismatch, on paper, is the Bills' defense against the Patriots' offense. Given all the issues on that side of the ball for New England, they are not getting solved in one week. I have a hard time seeing the Patriots scoring much against a defense that they always have issues against. Plus, Buffalo is getting healthier outside of Von Miller and Dion Dawkins: LB Tremaine Edmunds (groin/heel), DE Greg Rousseau (ankle), DE A.J. Epenesa (ankle) and C Mitch Morse (elbow/ankle) all missed last week and will be rested. CB Tre'Davious White and S Jordan Poyer now have a game or two under their belts.
Unless Belichick has cooked up some master plan to throw Allen off, or if the Bills get the drops and are very carless with the ball. I can't pick the Patriots in this one even if the Bills aren't humming.
Bedard's Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17.
Some videos from last season: