Revisiting some our bold preseason predictions for Bruins/NHL (Part II) - which are looking good in early going?

Ah yes, one of my most dreaded notebooks of the season — the early look back at our very bold predictions for both the Bruins and the NHL as a whole for the 2022-23 season. A new NHL campaign always presents its fair share of twists and turns, and the first month or so of a new year always unveils a number of early surprises and proclamations getting walked back in short order. 

Of course, given Boston’s sterling start to the new season, there are already quite a few predictions from yours truly that aren't looking too hot just a month into the new season. But rest assured, there will also be a couple included here that I am certainly patting myself on the back about.  

We’ll do a deeper dive on our predictions later on this season once the calendar turns to spring, but for now, let’s sort through our list and see just how accurate some of our early calls have been.

Here’s a look back at Part I of our prediction revisions:  

Trent Frederic finds himself on the outside looking in at B’s starting lineup

How’s it looking? He’s not leaving any time soon.

After a lackluster preseason, it sure seemed like Frederic’s days as a lineup regular were going to be numbered this season, with his struggles at carving out an identity in the bottom six hampering his ability to thrive in steady minutes. 

And while the case could be made that power forward still hasn’t regained that agitating, impactful role that he first harnessed in the first few months of the 2020-21 season, Frederic has been a steady regular so far in 2022-23 — earning plenty of praise from Jim Montgomery for his details and willingness to bring the puck into Grade-A ice. 

So far, the B’s lineup regular who is most at risk for losing his spot in the lineup has to be Craig Smith — who has looked completely out of gas in a number of his games so far this season. Add in his lack of time on special teams, and Montgomery has had to severely curtail Smith’s reps so far this season, with the veteran getting scratched five times already and only averaging 10:31 of ice time per game.

Not sure if there’s a lingering injury hampering Smith, or if the 33-year-old winger is just hitting a wall after his poor performance during the playoffs last season. But something is definitely off. 

Foligno/Nosek are out of the rotation by mid-November 

How’s it looking? Foligno is proving me — and plenty others — wrong.

Considering the lackluster play that both veterans put forth during preseason action, it sure felt like both Nosek and Foligno were going to be on the outside looking in at regular minutes as the 2022-23 season progressed — with Boston eventually handing their spots in the bottom-six grouping to younger players with arguably higher ceilings.

Hell, it looked at first like the Bruins weren’t even going to give Foligno a chance to prove that his camp musings about a bounce-back season were going to be validated, with Boston placing the veteran on waivers before the regular season commenced.

But give credit where it’s due. Whether it’s being another year removed from a serious back injury, the comfort that comes with another season settled in a new market or Montgomery’s systems — Foligno looks like a completely different player so far in 2022-23.

Given all of the praise that’s routinely doled out by his teammates, it’s clear that Foligno’s leadership and the levity he provides are already valued in Boston’s room. But those intangibles can only go so far if you’re not also contributing on the ice.

But Foligno has completely turned back the clock so far this season — routinely arriving on pucks and chipping in with seven points in 16 games. Add in his physicality, willingness to stand up for his teammates and strong play at the netfront when it comes to screening goalies, and Foligno has been a complete game-changer this season.

And give Nosek plenty of credit as well. He finally scored a goal on Sunday against Vancouver, but he's established himself as a dependable foot-soldier for Montgomery thanks to his PK work and versatility. 

Bruins rank in the top-10 in 5v5 goals scored …but dip a bit down the other end of the ice

How’s it looking? Seems like I undersold both facets of Boston’s game.

All preseason, Montgomery stressed the need for Boston to favor quality over quantity when it came to their O-zone chances, with the B’s opening the door for a higher output of Grade-A chances by opting to possess the puck and not settle for a bevy of low-danger volleys that could be easily corralled.

It was a sound message for Montgomery to preach, but who knew that the B’s would take his words to heart so soon? 

Sure enough, the Bruins have been an elite scoring squad out of the gate — leading the NHL with 4.00 goals scored per game while also tied for third in 5v5 tallies with 37 through 16 contests. It’s been a welcome development for a Bruins team that has so often been doomed in previous seasons by a dearth of consistent 5v5 scoring, but the B’s defense has also not taken a hit despite their scoring surge.

In fact, the B’s D corps has been as strong as ever, with Boston first in the league with a 2.19 goals against per game rate. An impressive feat, considering Boston was without McAvoy for the first 13 games of the season. 

The Bruins don’t make a splash at the deadline 

How’s it looking? Wait and see — but I don’t think a major deal is happening.

Of course, a LOT can happen between now and late February. But I’m feeling pretty good about this call so far. And that’s not just me signing off on a Bruins team that, right now, doesn’t seem like it needs another impact forward ahead of another Cup run.

Rather, Boston standing on the sidelines as potential trade targets like Patrick Kane are sent to other contenders is more a byproduct of Boston’s cap situation — as I can’t see a situation in which the B’s have the means to bring in another hefty contract with their limited fiscal flexibility, not without giving up a lot of NHL talent in return. 

Avalanche win Presidents' Trophy

How’s it looking? Perhaps we should have looked in our own backyard.

At this point, it sure feels the Bruins have the best shot of securing the top record in the NHL — which isn’t exactly a desirable achievement ahead of a high-stakes playoff run. Of course, the Golden Knights (13-3-0) are also right in the mix, but their uncertainty in net with Logan Thompson (at least in terms of the heavy workload he will be subjected to) does raise some concerns.

Make no mistake, the Avalanche boast perhaps the highest ceiling in the league — and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they up their game and surge up in the standings. But whether it be their lackluster goaltending or their continued search of another 2C following Nazem Kadri’s departure in free agency, it’s clear that this Colorado team does have a few more holes when compared to last year’s wagon of a club. 

Both the Penguins and Capitals don’t make the playoffs 

How’s it looking? Feeling pretty good!

Despite the Bruins’ continued defiance of Father Time, it does seem like that same good fortune is starting to run out for two other long-standing powerhouses in the East in both Pittsburgh and Washington.

It’s still early in the season, but our prediction was rooted in the belief that a bounce-back season from the Islanders and a major step forward by the Devils were going to bump the Pens and Caps out of the playoff picture.

So far, such a claim is looking pretty good — especially with the 12-3-0 Devils dominating teams in shot shares so far and Ilya Sorokin looking like a prime Vezina candidate for a stingy Isles club. 

Jakub Zboril wins the Bruins' 7th Player Award

How’s it looking? Sure seems unlikely.

It hasn’t been the greatest start to the season for Zboril, who could find his playing time further curtailed once Derek Forbort returns next month from a hand injury. But this reversal isn’t really an indictment on Zboril. Rather, it’s just a testament to how many other B’s players are currently exceeding expectations.

I mean, take your pick: Ullmark? Lindholm? Clifton? Foligno? Forbort? Greer? All have legitimate cases already for the annual award.

It’s a good problem to have if you’re a Bruins fan. 

Mike Reilly is odd man out on defense

How’s it looking? Right on the money.

By the time Forbort does return, the Bruins are going to have some decisions to make when it comes to getting cap compliant.

And with Reilly once again sent down to Providence before McAvoy was activated — it sure seems like the easiest route for the Bruins to take is to find a team to take on Reilly's contract via trade.

Even though some teams might be hesitant about absorbing a contract that runs through next season, I don’t think the B’s are going to need to throw in a major sweetener in any potential move — not with a number of teams already in need of a playmaking veteran on the blue line. 

 It’s unfortunate that Reilly’s time in Boston sure seems to be reaching its end, but he’s still a very solid NHLer who should be earning regular minutes this season. It’s a win-win move for all parties if Boston manages to move him elsewhere within the next few weeks. 

Bruce Cassidy and the Vegas Golden Knights get back into the playoffs ... but fall in the first round 

How’s it looking? They’re proving me wrong so far.

Breaking News: Bruce Cassidy is still a damn good coach — and with the Golden Knights finally healthy, they’re playing like a legitimate powerhouse out West.

Vegas has the star power (especially with a healthy Jack Eichel), depth, coaching and defensive structure to do some major damage this postseason. But still, even with Logan Thompson's strong play out of the gate (.925 save percentage, two shutouts), you're putting a lot of pressure on a young goalie whose previous career high for games played in a season was 19. Let's see how he's holding up come May. Unfortunately, it's not like the Knights have the cap space to just go out and pluck another established goalie from another team. Not without giving up another key asset on the NHL roster. 

No Bruins goalie runs away with the No. 1 spot

How’s it looking? Linus Ullmark might just go out and win a Vezina just to spite me.

Yes, once Jeremy Swayman is cleared to return from a lower-body injury,  I wouldn’t put it past the Alaska native to put together another heater in net later on this winter.

 And once Swayman does get the green light to return, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston opts for a pretty even amount of reps between him and Linus Ullmark moving forward — although that might be an action rooted more in easing what has been a hefty workload for Ullmark out of the gate.

But make no mistake, Ullmark has seized the 1A spot in Boston’s net so far this season, and he’s been arguably the best goalie in the NHL so far in 2022.

After an up-and-down first season in Boston, Ullmark has been composed, relaxed and locked in so far in his encore performance with the B’s — posting a 11-1-0 record with a .936 save percentage. Keeping Ullmark fresh down the stretch will be a storyline to follow in the second half of this season, but right now, the UFA pickup has been a game-changer for this B’s team.

The Bruins win the Atlantic

How’s it looking? Full speed ahead.

Even if the current standings in the Atlantic might be a bit jumbled, especially with Tampa Bay struggling out of the gate, I still think this division — especially at the top — has the most impressive assortment of talent in the league.

But when you look at some of the other deficiencies facing the other top dogs in the Atlantic like the Leafs (goaltending), Panthers (defense, shooting regression) and Bolts (depth), it sure seems like this is the Bruins’ division to lose right now. 

As we said before the season began: 

The Bruins may not be entering this new season as favorites, but on paper — there’s a whole lot to like about this team if things fall into place, especially when it comes to what could be an elite top-six unit and more depth sprinkled across the lineup.

So far, the Bruins has lived up my optimistic musings — and then some. 

Patrice Bergeron wins another Selke Trophy

How’s it looking? So far, so good.

I’ll let JFresh do the talking on this one:  

After putting together arguably his best defensive season in his Hall-of-Fame career at age 36, Bergeron has somehow managed to be even better so far in 2022-23. Insanity.

The Maple Leafs finally win a playoff round 

How’s it looking? Uhhhhhhhhh.

I respectfully don't know how you can buy in on this (still talented) roster when their current goalie corps features the likes of Ilya Samsonov, Erik Kallgren and (an injured) Matt Murray. 

Tuukka Rask becomes an elite Fan Banner captain

How’s it looking? The lock of all locks.

If you think the Garden crowd is going to lose it once Rask makes an appearance, just wait until it’s Zdeno Chara’s turn ahead of a pivotal playoff tilt. 

The Bruins beat the Blues in the Stanley Cup Final

How’s it looking? The Blues? YIKES. The Bruins? Well...

Alright, a Bruins vs. Blues rematch may not be in the cards.

But a Bruins vs. Golden Knights series? Bless the hockey gods.

We've got a whole lot of hockey left. But as I said earlier this season — enjoy the ride.