NHL Notebook: Revisiting some our bold preseason predictions for Bruins/NHL (Part I) - which are looking good in early going?

 Ah yes, one of my most dreaded notebooks of the season — the early look back at our very bold predictions for both the Bruins and the NHL as a whole for the 2022-23 season. A new NHL campaign always presents its fair share of twists and turns, and the first month of so of a new year always unveils a number of early surprises and proclamations getting walked back in short order.

Of course, given Boston’s sterling start to the new season, there are already quite a few predictions from yours truly that aren't looking too hot just a month into the new season. But rest assured, there will also be a couple included here that I am certainly patting myself on the back about.

We’ll do a deeper dive on our predictions later on this season once the calendar turns to spring, but for now, let’s sort through our list and see just how accurate some of our early calls have been. We'll have Part II out tomorrow following Sunday's game against the Canucks. 

1. Jake DeBrusk, David Pastrnak reach new scoring milestones

How’s it looking? So far, so good.

Not exactly a scorching take to start our list, but we had DeBrusk remaining up on the top line and burying a career-high 32 goals this season for Boston — while Pastrnak became the first B’s skater to bury 50 goals in a season since Cam Neely scored 50 in 49 games in 1993-94.

As of right now, DeBrusk is a bit under the pace I mapped out (five goals in 15 games) — which has him projected to finish with 29 tallies and 59 points on the season. Yes, it’s not that coveted 30-goal threshold, but both that final tally total and overall points would both stand as career highs for him. And even if DeBrusk’s play has evened out a good deal, it does seem like we’re due for one of those patented heaters for DeBrusk at some point this winter.

As for Pastrnak? Well, he’s right on target for those lofty scoring targets — with the 26-year-old star forward currently projected to score 53 goals and post 129 points over an 82-game season. So long as Pastrnak stays healthy, breaking 50 goals sure seems inevitable for him this season. 

2. Bruins ink Pastrnak to 8-year, $90-million contract extension by the end of October

How’s it looking? WAY OFF.

Well, so much for this optimism. 

We mapped out all summer that the Bruins were going to be playing with fire this season if they didn’t ink Pastrnak to a hefty new contract before the new season commenced — and now here we are. 

In his last official statement regarding talks with Pastrnak and his agent, J.P. Barry, Don Sweeney said that talks are ongoing, but no progress has been made. 

“(Agent) J.P. (Barry) and I talk almost every day, as Pasta references,” Sweeney said on Oct. 28. “Just trying to find the common ground and hopefully we get to a point that we can announce, but we're not there, other than the updates I reference. Communication has been good, just having found the end point yet."

The good news is that both parties are willing to keep chatting now that the season is in full swing (although Boston’s front-office staff is likely busy putting out another fire at the moment). But as Pastrnak continues to pile on points, the Bruins are losing more and more leverage as the pending UFA’s projected pay raise continues to shoot up.

Considering that the Bruins — in this win-now window — realistically can’t deal Pastrnak in February if he’s not willing to sign before the deadline, the organization needs to do everything it can to get him to sign on the dotted line as soon as possible, or else take the enormous risk of trying to retain him in the summer when a number of other teams will be lining up for Pastrnak’s services. 

One thing is for certain now — the days in which the Bruins were hoping that they could sign Pastrnak to, say, $9.5 - $10 million per year are long gone. Would be shocked if he falls under $11.5 million AAV at this point, be it with Boston or another club.

 3. Cale Makar wins the Norris … and the Hart

How’s it looking? In the mix … at least for the Norris

Makar, much like the Avs, has been very good to start the season … but perhaps not at the same elite standard that they set last season.

Granted, Makar’s stat line is still extremely impressive (14 points in 12 games, 26:07 ATOI), but he’s already facing plenty of competition from the likes of Adam Fox, a resurgent Erik Karlsson and yes, even a guy like Hampus Lindholm is making a pretty impressive case in the early going.

We’ll see if Charlie McAvoy (now back in the lineup after missing 13 games) can make a push for the Norris as the season progresses, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Makar once again finds himself leading the pack in the race for the NHL’s top blueliner.

As for Hart? Right now, it’s Connor McDavid (31 points in 15 games) leading the charge — but I wouldn’t be surprised if a guy like Jack Eichel builds some momentum for the top-seeded Golden Knights. He looks like a completely different player this season. 

4. Bruins will be hovering around .500 mark by end of November

How’s it looking? What a dummy this Conor guy is!

Listen, I don’t think it was that hot of a take to state that the Bruins were going to tread water out of the gate — especially with Brad Marchand, McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk all expected to miss a good chunk of time.

Add in the growing pains that were going to come with the B’s learning Jim Montgomery’s new system, and my initial projection of Boston boasting a record of 11-9-3 around Thanksgiving really wasn’t out of the question.

Well….

Be it Boston’s top stars continuing to thrive, the B’s defense holding its structural integrity without McAvoy, Linus Ullmark’s sterling start, Montgomery’s coaching impact and the number of secondary contributors all pulling their weight — and a ton of has gone right for a B’s team that’s looking like a legit contender in the early going. 

5. David Krejci surpasses 80 points 

How’s it looking? Maybe temper expectations just a tad 

Considering the video-game-like numbers that Krejci put up next to Taylor Hall in the spring of 2021, I was expecting big things from this second line at 5v5 play this season. And so far, they’ve been very good — but perhaps we overshot some of these scoring projections, at least with Krejci.

Missing some time recovering from an upper-body injury sure didn’t help, but Krejci is still on track to average around 55 points at his current rate (9 points in 12 games). It will be interesting to see how Krejci holds up over a long season, considering that his lone season in the Czech Extraliga wrapped up in March 2022. 

If there’s one thing that this Hall-Krejci-Pastrnak line needs to work on — it’s their play down the other end of the ice. This grouping isn’t paid to be two-way stalwarts, but the Bruins are likely looking for a more lopsided scoring advantage when this line is out on the ice (Three goals scored, three goals allowed in their 66:42 of 5v5 TOI). 

6. Marc McLaughlin still ends up playing 50+ games with Bruins

How’s it looking? Not trending well.

McLaughlin’s demotion down to Providence right before the regular season began was a bit of a surprise, considering that the Billerica native was arguably Boston’s most consistent forward during preseason action.

But given the promise that McLaughlin showcased — coupled with the expected roster reshuffle on the horizon as it pertained to Boston’s fourth line — it seemed like a given that McLaughlin would eventually earn a call-up sooner rather than later.

That could still happen in the coming weeks, especially if someone like Craig Smith continues to underwhelm. But McLaughlin’s relatively quiet start down in the AHL (three assists in 12 games) isn’t helping his case, especially with a guy like Jakub Lauko also looking for another call-up. 

7. Chicago Blackhawks are the worst team in the NHL … but the Flyers win the Connor Bedard sweepstakes

How’s it looking? Both are still in play.

It’s early — and it’s to be expected that a lot of the really cruddy teams will be jockeying for the worst position in the standings in an effort to snag a generational talent like Bedard.

But so far, it seems like the Blue Jackets (4-9-0) could be poised for the biggest letdown this season — especially now that Zach Werenski is expected to be lost for the full season due to a shoulder injury. 

But teams like Chicago, Arizona, Anaheim and Montreal will all be in the mix, no doubt. As for Philly, a strong start for Carter Hart has allowed the Flyers to post a respectable record out of the gate — but given their lopsided shot metrics and propensity for giving up Grade-A looks, it seems inevitable that the floodgates will open very soon for that team in the D-zone. 

8. The Pooh Bear returns in some capacity 

How’s it looking? Nailed it.

It’s here — and it’s beautiful.

9. The Wings and Sens make a push, but same four Atlantic teams punch ticket to playoffs

How’s it looking? Give it time. 

As of Saturday afternoon, the current state of the standings in the NHL and the Atlantic is: 

So, other than a lackluster start for Tampa, not a whole lot of surprises here. And even if the Bolts have been hampered by the loss of some key depth, I’m not going to predict the doom of a team still anchored by a goalie like Andrei Vasilevskiy.  

A Red Wings team that spent a ton this offseason has definitely improved (a lot of the credit should go to Ville Husso in the early going), but I still think the usual suspects in Boston, Tampa, Toronto and Florida end up at the top of the division once again.

Ottawa sure seemed like a trendy pick going into the season after making some massive upgrades up front, but early injuries (Josh Norris) and some leaky defense has tanked them here in November. They play an entertaining brand of hockey, but the Sens are still a few years away from contending. 

10. The Panthers go from the Presidents' Trophy … to the Wild Card

How’s it looking? Feeling good about it.

Granted, the Panthers are set to get a major lift now that Aaron Ekblad is back on the ice, but this Florida still seems destined to take a step back due to a dearth of depth and some expected regression. 

So far, Matthew Tkachuk looks like a fantastic pick-up for the Panthers, but the loss of another key blueliner in MacKenzie Weegar as a result of that trade is definitely felt — while Sergei Bobrovsky (.897 save percentage) doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence.

The Panthers are still a very good team with a lot of top talent at the top of the depth chart, but their chances of replicating last year’s absurd run seem like a long shot. 

11. Matthew Beniers is the lone sliver of hope out in Seattle 

How’s it looking? Beniers? Good. The Kraken? Due for a big step forward.

Hingham’s own in Beniers has been very good so far up in Seattle (five goals, nine points in 15 games), although Ottawa’s Shane Pinto and Buffalo’s Owen Power could give him a run for his money. But give credit where credit is due — the Kraken have actually been quite impressive so far this season, with the strengths that we expected to see from them in 2021-22 (depth and stingy defense) finally showing itself. 

12. Johnny Beecher earns more reps with Boston than Fabian Lysell

How’s it looking? Not sure we’re seeing much of either this season.

So far, Lysell has been pretty impressive down in Providence (11 points in 10 games), but the 19-year-old winger could still definitely use some more seasoning when it comes to rounding out his overall game.

Given the poor showing that Tomas Nosek put forth during the preseason, coupled with Johnny Beecher’s skillset that could translate to the NHL ranks in short order — the 2019 first-round pick seemed like an ideal mid-season call-up candidate for this team, eventually settling into the 4C role for the final stretch of the regular season.

But so far, Beecher has had a pretty slow start to his first full season down in the AHL, posting three points in 12 games. Granted, Beecher’s value as an NHLer may not come down to his O-zone production — as his greatest strengths lie in his blend of speed and size on the forecheck. 

Perhaps Beecher turns a corner — or injuries on the wing prompt a call-up for Lysell in due time — but given how the B’s are rolling right now, it’s not like this team is in desperate need for some reinforcements. 

13. Brad Marchand takes a step back after double-hip surgery 

How’s it looking? Marchand is proving us wrong, again. 

A procedure on both hips — especially at 34 years old — made for a daunting uphill climb for Marchand in his 14th NHL season. 

But if was ever a player that was going to take that recovery timeline and rip it up, it was going to be Marchand.

It was impressive enough that Marchand returned to the B’s lineup nearly five weeks ahead of his expected return, but he's also now gone out and posted 10 points in his first seven games — and looks like the same player that has established himself as one of the premier left wings in the game for years now. 

Part II to come Sunday night.