Note: The Sunday NFL notes, due to the Monday game, will be delivered later on Monday morning to survey the AFC landscape.
A deeper look at the Bears — who are 31st overall in DVOA — through personnel, coaches' film analysis, matchup advantages and disadvantages, gameplan points and game pick, but first...
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The Bears might have one of the league's worst offenses, but Chicago's pass defense is going to be a pain in the butt to the Patriots on Monday night in this regard:
They make you work for everything, and usually make you string together many plays and yards to get into the end zone.
If you're expecting the Patriots to be high-flying via the pass, especially if Mac Jones returns, I would prepare to be underwhelmed. Consider this:
In the first five games of the season (we excluded the awful Washington game), Bears opponents have averaged 9.4 plays and 69.7 yards on each of their 17 scoring drives allowed (outside of obvious short fields). Seven of the 17 drives (41 percent) needed at least 10 plays. Ten of 17 drives (59 percent) were 70 yards or more (five 80+).
In the immortal words of Hank Stram: "Just keep matriculating the ball down the field boys!"
Just ask the Vikings, who led the Bears 21-3 in the first half, and then had to come from behind to win 29-22 — three of the Bears' four losses have been by one score or less. Vikings are pretty good on offense with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook and Kirk Cousins. They only had two explosive pass plays for 20+ yards — and one was thrown by Jefferson to Cook. The only play they really hit, 31 yards from Cousins to Jefferson, was well-covered and needed a perfect pass and catch.
It was, largely, checkdown city. There was a lot of matriculating.
The Bears don't have a ton of talent on defense, and it's very young. But credit to coach Matt Ebeflus, the former Colts defensive coordinator who was handpicked by Josh McDaniels for that role after he accepted the job. His scheme is not exotic (Indy had more creative coverage and blitzing with a veteran unit), but these players are executing the primary zone defense, keeping everything in front of them (they are 3rd in the league in depth of target allowed, 6.4 — Patriots are 31st at 9.2), and not busting many coverages. This should not be a repeat of the Lions and Browns game. Considering they blitz a league-low 13.9 percent, they do a decent job generating 25.1 percent pressure (bottom third, Patriots in same area at 24.6 percent).
OFFENSE
DVOA: 30th overall offense, 31st pass, 22nd rush
Patriots D: 7th overall, 6th pass, 26th rush
Quarterback
1 Justin Fields: Can run like the wind and throw it through a wall, but he's on his second coordinator/scheme in as many years and as a result, has yet to settle down in the pocket and look well-coached. He doesn't see wide-open receivers, is often late with passes and his footwork is all over the place. When he's under pressure (an amazing 50 percent of his dropbacks), Fields is completing just 33 percent of his passes. He's been blitzed 30 percent, and his completing just 38.7 percent of those. Patriots will want to keep him in the pocket and patting the ball. Has fumbled seven times in six games. (Backup: 15 Trevor Siemian)
Running backs
32 David Montgomery: Hard to believe he's still 25 because it feels like he's been in the league forever, but a good, solid two-way back who is done no favors with the blocking.
24 Khalil Herbert: Explosive second-year player has split reps with Montgomery and is the better home run threat now (6.4 yards per attempt). Not much of a pass catcher.
FB 35 Khari Blasingame: One of the better fullbacks in the game, and they will use him.
Receivers
11 Darnell Mooney: Best receiver had 1,000 yards last year. 60 percent of his alignment is in the slot. Leads team with 30 targets and 17 catches.
19 Equanimeous St. Brown: In his first season with the Bears after three in Green Bay. He's 6-5 and 214 pounds but has caught just 6 of 13 targets.
8 N'Keal Harry: Former Patriot has yet to play this season due to injuries. Hopes to make debut. The Patriots are in big trouble now.
18 Dante Pettis: Speed-type receiver has two drops, five catches on 13 targets.
TE 85 Cole Kmet: Big tight end isn't much of a blocker but is second on the team with 16 targets, 10 catches. They will run some plays for him. Won't run away from anyone.
84 Ryan Griffin: Veteran move TE still finds ways to make a play here and there.
Offensive line
LT 70 Braxton Jones: If you thought it was, um, strange for the Patriots to start a rookie out of UT-Chattanooga at LG, the Bears have started a fifth-round pick out of Southern Utah at LT. Not surprisingly, he leads the team with 20 pressures and 4 sacks allowed. Very slow of foot. Good run blocker.
LG 62 Lucas Patrick: Second on the Beaes with 16 pressures, two sacks allowed. Green light for Pats to that side of the line. Loses a lot of hand battles.
C 67 Sam Mustipher: Third with 10 pressures allowed. Solid in the running game.
RG 76 Teven Jenkins: Second-year player is 6-6, 321 and probably their best lineman. Only six hurries allowed.
RT 75 Larry Borom: Another second-year player. Has pass blocked well the previous two games.
DEFENSE
DVOA: 19th overall, 14th pass, 27th rush
Patriots off: 22nd overall, 18th pass, 14th rush
This is the same style of defense the Patriots faced in Indy last year, and it wasn't a great performance from Mac Jones as he threw INTs to linebackers. Despite that, Jones tied a season-high with 11 plus plays (10 minus). He was only expected to complete 59.8 percent of his passes, and completed 57.8 — a testament to how hard Eberflus makes the QB work. Jones had to thread a lot of passes in this game, often with velocity outside the numbers to find space.
Mac Jones vs. Matt Eberflus' Colts defense last year:
Defensive line
RE 94 Robert Quinn: Still a really good pass rusher, but that's all he is. Not good against the run. Second with 13 QB pressures.
LE 55 Al‐Quadin Muhammad: Lanky edge is decent against the run. Had a sack vs. Washington.
DE 99 Trevis Gipson: Despite playing half the snaps of the others, leads team with 14 pressures. At 6-4, 263, a big body rusher from the outside.
DT 93 Justin Jones: Another team that is undersized in the middle — Bears like to let their big linebackers fill the voids.
DT 90 Angelo Blackson: Well-traveled undersized DI can rush a little bit but gets moved in the run game.
DT 64 Mike Pennel Jr.: Former free agent of the Patriots in 2019 never made it out of camp. Had a promising start to his career in Green Bay but was suspended twice. Has bounced around and gets moved around.
Linebackers
LB 58 Roquan Smith: Former 8th overall pick in 2018 is off to a rough start in this system but if he buys in, it can make him a star (Shaq Leonard, Indy). Looks like he's playing really heavy.
LB 53 Nicholas Morrow: Former Raider is a rough watch. Slow in the run game and targeted via the pass. Has missed eight tackles.
Secondary
CB 33 Jaylon Johnson: Missed three games but returned last week and was solid. Has allowed 4 catches on 9 targets.
CB 22 Kindle Vildor: Leads team with 3 pass breakups and an interception. Is coming off his two best games.
NCB 6 Kyler Gordon: Second-round pick is a bit boom or bust at this point with 2 TDs allowed and 126 passer rating.
S 4 Eddie Jackson: Veteran free safety is still a good player in coverage, but struggles in the run game. Missed nine tackles.
S 9 Jaquan Brisker: Second-round pick is learning quickly and physical, but will make mistakes (nine missed tackles).
Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 16th, Browns 8th
MATCHUP ADVANTAGES
In the trenches: The Patriots' OL and DL should have an easy time of it this week. They are much more physical on both sides of the ball.
S Dugger vs. TE Kmet: The only way Dugger doesn't win this battle is if he starts peeking into the backfield again, which Fields can cause you to do.
TE Henry vs. LB Morrow: Morrow is one of the worst coverage LBs I've seen the past few years, so Henry should find some space again.
MATCHUP DISADVANTAGES
Justin Fields on the run: Patriots have long had issues with QBs that can run. Fields isn't much of a threat with the pass so that helps, but he can take it to the house.
WR Mooney vs. SCB Myles Bryant: Bryant usually holds his own, but Mooney is the lone threat here, so I wonder if they let Jonathan Jones match up with him.
WR Parker vs. CB Johnson: Johnson's got some game and moxie to him so we should see a few interesting physical battles.
GAME PLAN POINTS
1. Keep Fields in the pocket: You want to give him all day to throw.
2. Stop Bears running game: Make it a passing game. Don't get them to stay balanced.
3. Stay with simple offense, playaction: Took a rookie third-stringer to get Matt Patricia to dial the passing offense back to 2021 and Jones' comfort zone, but now you see why we were pounding the table for it. This fits right in with the need to go on long drives in this game.
4. Bury the Bears: They have a habit of making a little run and the game interesting. Don't give them any life. Make them do it the hard way.
GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Patriots -9. O/U: 40.
Bedard's record: 6-0 straight up, 6-0 vs. spread
Oh man ... the pressure to stay perfect is starting to get to me. If the Bears take care of the ball, this is going to be a lot harder and uglier than most people want to think about. The Bears do this to everybody, it's fine. If the Patriots go into this game trying to make X big plays in the passing game, they could be in trouble. But Jones has a habit of bouncing back when people doubt him. I expect him to be dialed in, but don't expect a Picasso his first time back against this defense.
Patriots 24, Bears 9
