Sometime in early November, the Red Sox, like most every other team in the game, will have to make a determination about their own free agents and whether to present them with qualifying offers.
To review: Qualifying offers represent both protection and a gamble for the teams. If they give a qualifying offer to a free-agent-to-be and the player accepts, the team is tied to that player for at least one year at the universal salary (determined as the median point for the top 20 percent highest paid players in the game the previous season).
Nothing precludes a team or player from further negotiating a longer deal, at a salary to be agreed upon. But at the very least, an accepted qualifying offer ties the team and player for at least one season.
If a player rejects a qualifying offer, he remains a free agent, but is now attached to compensation to his former team. However, because the Red Sox finished the 2022 season above the first threshold ($230 million) of the CBT (competitive balance tax), they would be compensated with an extra pick after the conclusion of the fourth round of next year's amateur draft. Had the Sox remained under the $230 million figure, they would get a pick after the second round.
Some of these calls will be routine. The Red Sox aren't about to risk paying reliever Matt Strahm $19.65 million -- the amount of this year's QO. And while there have already been talks with Rich Hill about Hill returning to the Sox for 2023, the Sox aren't about to pay him almost $20 million.
That leaves four principal free agents about whom the Sox have to make a decision.
Here's a look at the four, with positives and negatives associated with each.
Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts has yet to declare himself a free agent, but that will come soon after the conclusion of the World Series when Bogaerts, as expected, opts out of his current contract. (This is assuming the Red Sox don't secure him to a new deal beforehand). Even if a QO is offered, Bogaerts will, naturally, reject it since he's looking for a long-term deal and the $19.65 million for 2023 would actually represent a pay cut.
Risk factor: None. Bogaerts will reject the QO, enduring that if he does sign elsewhere, the Red Sox will get some (small) compensation. Their chief goal, of course, remains signing him to a long-term deal -- one that will be at least six years in duration, and probably include an average annual salary (AAV) of $30 million -- or close to it.
Prediction: Red Sox offer, Bogaerts rejects, but soon after, the two sides reach agreement on a new long-term extension.
J.D. Martinez
Martinez has signaled that he would like to remain with the Red Sox. Asked about that likelihood in the final week of the season, Martinez responded: "That's a Chaim (Bloom) question.'' Translation: I want to come back, but it's up to them. Martinez has a mediocre season for the Sox in 2022. He had 42 doubles, leading the team, but his homers dropped to just 16 (including three in the final week), and his OPS, which has been in decline in recent years, fell to .790, marking the first time it fell below .800 in a full season since 2013. Martinez can still do some damage in the DH spot but his strikeout rate was up and he seemed unable to drive the ball to right-center -- previously his trademark.
Risk factor: Considerable. The $19.65 million would actually be a small boost in salary for Martinez, who earned $19.35 million in 2022. Martinez would undoubtedly accept the QO, given his age (35) and the fact that he's coming off a down year, eliminating any strategic advantage for the Sox. Instead of protecting themselves with a bonus pick, they would be ensuring his return for 2023. Given the trend toward away from older, less versatile players -- for the first time, Martinez didn't play even an inning in the field this season -- it's hard to see the Sox willingly committing to this.
Prediction: Red Sox don't offer QO. They could circle back later in the offseason and talk about a one-year deal at a lower figure if they don't find another option at DH.
Nathan Eovaldi
Like Martinez, Eovaldi offered a pretty good return on the team's original investment (he just completed a four-year, $68 million deal, signed in the aftermath of the 2018 World Series). Eovaldi was 23-15 with a 4.15 ERA in his four full seasons with the Red Sox. In the absence of Chris Sale for much of the last three years, Eovaldi emerged as the team's de facto No. 1 starter and in the 2021 postseason, he was clearly their most dependable starter, with the Sox winning three of his four starts. This past season, Eovaldi was 6-3 with a 3.87 ERA in 20 starts, but, as was the case in each of his five seasons in Boston but one, battled injuries. That's the principal concern going forward -- durability. In three full seasons with the Sox, he pitched more than 110 innings only once.
Risk factor: Moderate. Paying Eovaldi $19.65 million in 2023 would result in a slight increase in pay (up from $17 million in 2023). Given the uncertainty surrounding the Red Sox 2023 rotation (Chris Sale and Nick Pivetta are the only pitchers who have more than 20 major league starts), there are worse moves than to secure the services of a solid veteran starter for one season. Eovaldi is praised for being a great teammate and leader of the staff, so there are intangible benefits to having him return. Still, durability is a sticking point. Eovaldi will turn 33 in spring training and given his track record, the Sox would have to go into 2023 hoping that they'll get 22-25 starts from him.
Prediction: Red Sox offer QO and Eovaldi declines, signing elsewhere. At (almost) 33, this could be Eovaldi's last shot at a multi-year deal, and given the lack of top-ranked starters, could probably come close to duplicating -- or perhaps slightly exceeding -- his recently expired contract.
Michael Wacha
In 2021, the Red Sox were encouraged by what they saw in Wacha's final month of the season with Tampa Bay. They noticed that he had made some adjustments to his pitch mix, and believed that the changes would make him more effective. Turns out they were right, and their $7 million signing was one of the best moves they made last offseason. For much of 2022, Wacha was their most reliable starter. In 15 of his first 20 starts, he allowed two earned runs or fewer and in 18 of his first 21 starts, he allowed three runs or fewer.
Risk factor: Moderate. Just as his September 2021 was eye-opening, so, in a different way, were his last couple of starts in 2022, when he was shelled for 11 runs over his final 7.1 innings. Was this the result of him tiring out and hitting an end-of-season wall? Or was it something more ominous? Like Eovaldi, there are durability questions in play here. Wacha had two IL stints, limiting him to 23 starts. But in five of his last six full-length seasons before 2022, Wacha had made at least 27 starts. Also somewhat ominous: his strikeout rate was down to 20.2 percent. Is this a sign of wear and tear?
Prediction: Red Sox don't offer QO. I would take the gamble here, given how little the Red Sox have secured for their rotation in 2023. They're going to have to go into the free agent or trade market to fill some of those spots, so why not overpay a bit for someone who already knows their organization and who has proven he can succeed in Boston?
Other free agents almost certain to be given QOs: Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Chris Bassitt, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Aaron Judge, Edwin Diaz,
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Ten thoughts on the postseason to date:
1. Good to see Bruce Bochy will be back in the dugout, hired to manage the Texas Rangers. The game is better when accomplished, experienced managers are on the job. And while teams are all in search of the next 38-year-old managerial wunderkind, it's worth noting that of the final eight teams this fall, four (San Diego, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Houston) were run by managers who were 60 and older. Could we soon see others (Mike Scioscia, Joe Maddon) return, too?
2. It was nice to see Xander Bogaerts recognized for his defensive improvement by getting named as a finalist for a Gold Glove. But a few of the other nominees make you wonder about the process. In what world, for instance, is Juan Soto one of the three best right fielders in the National League?
3. Regardless of what happens the rest of the way, it's been a positive postseason for the game. Having playoff games in Seattle, San Diego and Philadelphia, with fan bases desperate to watch playoff baseball again, has made for great theater and terrific backdrops to some compelling games.
4. There will be continuing debate about "rust vs. rest'' -- i.e., whether it's better to get a few days off after the regular season, or keep playing. The success enjoyed by some wild-card teams (San Diego and Philadelphia) will lead some to advocate for the benefits of building momentum. But for all the debate, which manager or GM would, given the choice, elect to play a best-of-three series if they didn't have to? The trick, in this new format, will be about finding ways to keep division-winning teams sharp during the five-day layoff.
5. Wonder what the Dodgers are thinking? They've won the NL West nine times in the last 10 seasons, qualified for the postseason in all 10 years, won three pennants....and have just one title to show for themselves. In many respects, the Dodgers have become the model franchise. They spend big, maintain an incredible player development system that's constantly providing reinforcements for the major league roster, have made blockbuster trades, and kept the same management team in place to provide continuity. And yet, they've won it all just once in the past decade. More fodder, perhaps, for the "the postseason is totally random'' crowd.
6. The New York Mets stand to suffer the most free-agent defections. Four-fifths of their rotation (deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker), a good chunk of their bullpen (Diaz, Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo) and their leadoff hitter/center fielder (Brandon Nimmo) are all potential free agents. Keeping only a few could send the Mets well past the $300 million mark with their payroll. How far will owner Steve Cohen go?
7. On the subject of managers: two managers (Philadelphia's Rob Thomson and Toronto's John Schneider) who took over failing teams mid-season were rewarded with contract extensions and the removal of the "interim'' tags this past week. Both clubs reached the postseason. Will that make it more likely for teams to make a change next season should they begin the year poorly?
8. As I expected, I've missed Joe Buck this October. It became trendy to rip Buck -- while also maintaining that he was somehow rooting against everyone's favorite team. But this month's telecasts could use his professionalism and ability to perfectly capture big moments. And while Bob Costas can still deliver big-game calls, his penchant for rhapsodizing about events from 60-70 years ago is not exactly the best strategy to attract younger viewers to postseason baseball. It's a baseball broadcast, Bob, not a symposium.
9. Red Sox bench coach Will Venable was rumored to be a candidate for managerial openings in both Texas and Kansas City, but his name hasn't surfaced much. The Rangers have made their hire and there's been no talk of Venable with the Royals.
10 It's hard not to be impressed by Dave Dombrowski's ability to turn teams around and get them positioned to win championships quickly. In year two of his time in Philadelphia, he has the Phillies on the doorstep of the World Series. What the organization will look like in another two or three years is an open question, but Dombrowski gets results.