NFL Notebook: Bad playcalls or execution? A deep dive on Patriots' red zone woes - and some suggestions

You don't have to be a football genius to know the Patriots have gotten off to a rough start in the red zone offensively.

Not only are they 19th in all scoring (including defense and special teams), they are tied for 28th with a red zone TD percentage of 40 percent. The league average is 56.8 percent. 

A year ago, they finished (different than through five games) sixth in scoring and 11th in red zone at 61.9 percent (league average was 58.5).

Keep in mind that the Patriots' performance this season has come against what FootballOutsider.com's advanced analytics peg as the easiest offensive schedule to date in the league. For that reason, according to their stats, the Patriots are 30th in overall red zone efficiency, their red zone passing is 31st, and the red zone rushing is 17 percent.

If the Patriots' offense is going to vastly improve over the balance of the season, that is going to have to start in the red zone. But to solve a problem, you need to understand the problem.

So we went through every play from the red zone (and some from the 25-yard line and in, the high red zone), and broke it all down.

Are Matt Patricia's playcalls mostly to blame? 

How much is just bad execution by the players?

Or is it a Mac Jones problem?

And, for all that is holy, many times are they throwing to the running backs in the flat?

Let's take a look, but we will give you one takeaway stat that puts the struggles in perspective: Patriots have run 40 red zone plays and just 11 have been successful (27.5 percent).

One note: we used FootballOutsiders.com's measure of a successful play — 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down — to give us a baseline for calling a play a success or failure.

DOLPHINS (1 for 1 in RZ, 0 for 1 high red zone)

MIA 22 Jones to Parker INT — Playcall

This play looks like a called shot play from Patricia all the way because Jones immediately goes to this throw (Jonnu Smith was wide open in the middle and where Jones would have gone last year), and he throws it despite it a) being Xavien Howard in coverage, and b) Howard being on top of DeVante Parker in coverage (in phase or out of phase would have been acceptable throw scenarios).

Other red zone plays:

Dolphins busted coverages on both the 15-yard pass, and the touchdown where Ty Montgomery was so open he was able to roll into the end zone.

These flat passes look to be part of the new offense, where you can't change much at the line. Pretty much Jones has to throw there, even though the defense is not a good look for it.

Red zone play success rate: 1 of 3 (33.3 percent)
Failure fault: 1 playcall, 1 execution
Success credit: 1 on opponent miscue

STEELERS (1 for 3 in RZ officially; 1 for 2 in reality)

This red zone trip was just a disaster. Jones was again going to throw into the flat, but the Steelers had it covered and Wynn allowed pressure so Jones scrambled. Henry took too long to turn around on second down. There was a delay of game penalty on third down, and Jones just took the checkdown and FG on third. 

Patriots are gifted their only other red zone possession of the game (the other came running out the clock, so that gets tossed out) when Gunner Olszewski muffed the punt. The RB flat pass finally gets called against the right defense (blitz man) so Harris has a successful play. Good power on third and goal to get the TD.

Red zone play success rate: 2 of 7 (28.6 percent)
Failure fault: Zero on playcalls; 5 for 5 via execution
Success credit: 100 percent on execution

RAVENS (3 for 5 in red zone)

Wynn's hold on a run that was going nowhere blew up this drive.

Stevenson had a great run where he bounced it outside to get them in business at the 5-yard line. Ran three straight times on this drive to score.

This drive was nearly a disaster when Jones threw to the RB in the flat again, and the Ravens had it in their hands but dropped it. Another rushing TD. I'm sensing a theme here.

Patriots score again via the run. To get there, Patriots deftly caught Ravens sleeping a bit.

Only one run on this sequence and Jones' much-debated pass — was it the fault of Jones or Parker (we say Parker) — is picked off and a huge blunder when points would have been fine.

Red zone play success rate: 5 of 12 (41.7 percent)
Failure fault: 3 of 7 on playcalls; 4 of 7 on execution
Success credit: 1 of 5 on playcalls, 4 of 5 on execution

PACKERS (1 for 2 in red zone; 1 for 1 high red zone)

Both the touchdown and the return trip to the red zone with Zappe were due to coverage busts by the Packers. Two of their three successful plays in the RZ in this game were via the run. Finally saw the outside zone make an appearance in the red zone against the Packers' porous run defense. 

Red zone play success rate: 2 of 6 (33.3 percent)
Failure fault: 1 of 4 on playcall; 3 of 4 on execution
Success credit: zero from playcalls; 2 of 2 on execution

LIONS (0 for 4 in redzone, 1 for 1 high red zone)

That the Patriots totaled 15 yards on their 12 red zone plays was, in a word, brutal but I think it speaks mostly to two things: a) Belichick was fine kicking field goals against a Lions team that was imploding on its own, and b) they didn't have a ton of confidence in Zappe and didn't want to chance anything to hurt his confidence/the team.

Red zone play success rate: 1 of 12 (8.3 percent)
Failure fault: 8 of 11 on playcalls, 3 of 11 on execution
Success credit: 1 of 1 on playcalls

TAKEAWAY STATS

There's no way around it ... 27.5 percent is putrid. The Patriots could probably run every down and have a lot more success.

Patricia should not be a huge target on these struggles as poor execution has been more to blame, by a small margin. However, a playcall fail rate of 45 percent is high — it should be at most 1 in 3, if not 1 in 4. The playcaller should have a better feel of what the opponent is going to do in those scenarios and have playcalls ready to attack them. The Patriots' red zone approach seems haphazard, at best, and it's getting pretty repetitive. 

My first recommendation for improving the red zone offense: stop going in the gun all the time. It's not working at all.

Second: Ramp up the running and playaction game. That's where Jones and the Patriots were best last season, and they are much better there again this season. The shotgun stuff in the red zone is garbage.

As you can see, the Patriots have largely dumped the outside zone running scheme that caused them to be so terrible in August, and their only two successes were late against a bad Packers run defense. The Patriots would have been much better off using that time in August to perfect their playaction game and building off it.

Recommendation No. 3: STOP THROWING TO THE BACKS AS A FIRST OPTION.

It's high time to build the red zone package off Hunter Henry — who tied for the league lead among TEs with nine TD catches last season — and then the receivers.

To that end, all of this data seems to point to this:

• Get under center
• Run the ball between the tackles
• Use playaction more
• Use Henry as a first option, and then the receivers
• Stop trying to make Harris and Stevenson out to be James White. Maybe Montgomery can, but shelve it for now.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Not sure why everyone thinks the Panthers are going to engage in a firesale — players available at cut-rate prices — now that Matt Rhule has been fired. This isn't the NBA where tanking for a lottery pick can change your future (you need five players in hoops, you need 22 at least in football). First of all, they want to give interim coach Steve Wilks a real shot to compete. Secondly, and most importantly, GM Scott Fitterer and his front office are trying to be retained. How does selling off the players, unless they were Rhule favorites, help them sell themselves to owner Dave Tepper? And wouldn't you want this job to be attractive to top job candidates?

2. The only player you can get right now is WR Robbie Anderson. You can only have Christian McCaffrey if you want to sell the house (not a firesale). And none of their young talented players are available.

3. If I were the Patriots and I could logically get one realistic player from the Panthers, it would be LB Shaq Thompson. The former college safety would instantly upgrade the athleticism and overall play at the position. He's very affordable this season, but his base jumps to $12 million next year. He's 28 and you could extend him a year or two, but he might want to get to his first and likely last free agency in 2024 when he's 30.

4. The true lesson to be learned in Bailey Zappe fever, if the Patriots were willing to look in the mirror, is that the offense came out way too aggressive this season. There's a reason why Josh McDaniels was so conservative last year, and Mac Jones had to be tightly stage-managed. One offseason does not change that. You don't go from game manager to gunslinger after 18 games. Until Jones proves otherwise — not a moment sooner — the Patriots need to get back what worked well last season, which is basically a more advanced version of the Zappe offense: get under center, run the ball between the tackles, have the offense go through the running backs, use playaction to generate your shot plays.

5. Mazel Tov to Robert Kraft and Dr. Dana Blumberg for their nuptials. They were attended by, among others, Tom Brady, Devin McCourty, Matthew Slater and Jerod Mayo. Interesting that some current Patriots were there. No reports of Belichick.