The best bet is that the Red Sox are probably going to move on from J.D. Martinez.
Martinez is a free agent and is coming off his least productive full season since 2014. His home run total was almost cut in half from the previous season (28-to-16) and it wouldn't have been even that high until Martinez rallied to hit four in his last nine games, including two on what was likely his last game in a Red Sox uniform.
Considering the production they got from him, the Red Sox would gladly do their five-year, $110 million deal with Martinez again. In his four full seasons, Martinez averaged almost 31 homers and exactly 99 RBI per season while being among the leaders in doubles. As a member of the Red Sox, he had an .889 OPS -- and that figure is depressed by the 2020 season, the worst of his major league career.
So, money well spent.
But giving Martinez $19.6 million -- the amount of the qualifying offer -- would seem to be too big a gamble. Is is possible that Martinez, ever tinkering with his swing mechanics, could bounce back next year and be a run-producing threat? The way he did from the 2020 season (.680 OPS) to 2021 (.867 OPS)? Sure.
But that's a pretty big gamble for the Red Sox. It could be that at 35, Martinez has begun an inexorable decline at the plate -- the bat speed slower, the reflexes slipping.
Even the allure of an extra draft pick wouldn't be enough to counter the risk that Martinez would accept the QO. He's unlikely to get anywhere near a $20 million AAV on the open market.
So what do the Red Sox do? Since 2003, they've had a run of 20 seasons almost uninterrupted with two of the best DHs in recent history -- David Ortiz from 2003-2016 and Martinez from 2018-2022.
They could follow the trend of some other teams and rotate other position players through the DH spot. Let's assume Xander Bogaerts is re-signed; the Sox could have Bogaerts DH once a week, followed by Rafael Devers, followed by Trevor Story, followed by Alex Verdugo and so on. Each day, the Sox would be getting solid production from an above-average offensive performer, while allowing them some rest from their usual defensive responsibilities.
Or, they could sign another 35-year-old slugger: Jose Abreu.
Abreu is a free agent with the Chicago White Sox, a team that is likely to undergo a significant roster churn. The White Sox underachieved in a big way, and it didn't seem to matter who was managing in the dugout -- Tony La Russa, or his September replacement, Miguel Cairo. They dropped 12 games from the previous season. The White Sox are seeking to get younger.
One mitigating factor is owner Jerry Reinsdorf, who is famously loyal to longtime staff and players alike. If Abreu wishes to come back with the White Sox, it's hard to imagine Reinsdorf not instructing executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn to get a deal done.
But maybe Abreu, who will turn 36 in January, is ready for a change of scenery, in which case, the Red Sox would make some sense.
Abreu, too, saw some regression in his 2022 season. He had just 15 homers, one fewer than Martinez. But in virtually every other offensive category, Abreu was superior. He had the better OPS (.824 to .790) OPS+ (133 to 117), batting average (.304 to .274), WAR (4.2 to 1.1) Win Probably Added (1.6 to -0.6).
Some of Abreu's peripheral numbers are impressive, too. According to Statcast, Abreu was in the 97th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 93rd percentile in average exit velocity. (By contrast, Martinez was in the 60th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 51st in average exit velocity.
Clearly, Abreu is still capable of squaring up balls.
One of the biggest advantages Abreu holds is his ability to play first base. (In stark contrast, Martinez didn't spend so much as a third of an inning in the field in 2022). In fact, Abreu played 128 games at first last year, compared to 29 games at DH. Abreu isn't a Gold Glove first baseman by any stretch, but for a 35-year-old big man, he's about fringe-average at the position.
Of course, with Triston Casas slated to be the Red Sox' first baseman, Abreu wouldn't be asked to play much first. But as an experienced first baseman, and a right-handed hitting one at that, he offers nice protection in a way that the lefty-swinging Eric Hosmer does not. If Casas struggles, Abreu can take over at first. If there's a tough lefty, Casas can sit and Abreu can fill in.
We don't know how Abreu would view becoming a more-or-less full-time DH, a role he's filled only part-time in his career. But he surely would enjoy hitting in Fenway half the time, and for a team committed to spending and winning.
Boston would be a new experience for Abreu, who left Cuba in 2013 and agreed to a deal with the White Sox. But before he signed with Chicago, he had a deal in place, engineered by then Red Sox special assistant Allard Baird. At the last minute, however, Red Sox ownership balked at giving a sizable contract to someone who had never played Major League Baseball, and Abreu pivoted to Chicago.
(Postscript: After Abreu enjoyed a monster rookie season with the White Sox, slashing .317/.383/.581 with 36 homers and 107 RBI, ownership, realizing the error of their ways, urged the Sox to get back into the Cuban market. The Sox front office responded by signing outfielder Rusney Castillo to a seven-year deal that proved disastrous).
Like Martinez, Abreu is a student of hitting who enjoys talking about his process and working with younger teammates. He's been particularly helpful with young Latino players, of whom there are no shortage in the Red Sox organization.
And unlike the nearly $20 million price tag that Martinez would come with via the qualifying offer, the Red Sox aren't locked into a specific number. They could probably land Abreu with a two-year deal for just over $30 million.
There are other priorities for the Sox, naturally, not the least of which is getting Bogaerts locked up, then turning their attention to the starting rotation.
But if the Sox are worried about filling their DH hole, and assuring themselves of a proven slugger in the middle of their lineup, one who could offer a valuable backup option to an untested first baseman, Abreu checks all the boxes
______________________
On the subject of Hosmer, the Boston Globe reported this week that the veteran first baseman now has a full no-trade clause in his contract that was activated when he was dealt from San Diego to the Sox at the Aug. 2 deadline.
That changes things considerably.
The Red Sox are paying only the pro-rated minimum salary to Hosmer for the remainder of his three-year deal. That means they get an experienced, productive player for $720,000 in 2023, $740,000 in 2024 and $760,000 in 2025.
The no-trade clause, however, complicates things.
Until the existence of the no-trade clause became known, the Red Sox could think about dealing Hosmer anywhere. They could deal with small payroll teams like Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Oakland or Miami, because even the most cost-conscious teams could absorb a three-year, $2.22 million deal. In fact, Hosmer was perhaps most attractive to such a franchise.
Now, however, the Red Sox have to get Hosmer to agree to any deal. And what are the odds he wants to go play in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Oakland or Miami in front of tiny crowds, playing for teams with no chance to complete? Slim.
Hosmer now has the leverage to steer a deal somewhere only he wants to play. And that limits the Red Sox' options in any trade discussions.
______________________________
Did we over-value the quality of the American League East?
That's a question worth asking in the aftermath of the wild card round, one that saw both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays bow out of the postseason with a combined four losses and zero wins.
It may well be that a best-of-three series is only slightly more of a fair assessment of a team than the previous one-game winner-take-all format. After all, if losing one game isn't the best snapshot after 162 regular season games, then maybe a two-game losing streak isn't either -- especially when you consider that the Rays got eliminated in the 15th inning of one game and a lost a one-run game in the other.
If the Rays and Jays weren't that good, however, what does that say about the Red Sox, who were personal punching bags for both teams in their own division. Combined, the Red Sox were a lowly 10-28 against the Jays and Rays, and were outscored by a margin of 213-125 in those games?
Did the Rays and Jays just fatten up on the Red Sox, and inflate their records in the process, only to be shown to be merely average when matched up against other contenders?
Again, it's easy to over-react, since while the Red Sox were thoroughly manhandled by Toronto and Tampa Bay, they actually acquitted themselves well against some other playoff teams. Boston posted winning records against Houston (4-2), Seattle (6-1) and Cleveland (5-2).
Meanwhile, it's worth wondering about Tampa Bay's roster-building and the ability to compete in the postseason.
On one hand, the Rays have qualified for the playoffs in each of the last four seasons, which not many organizations -- the Red Sox included -- can claim. But once they get there, the Rays have been mostly overmatched.
In the pandemic season of 2020, they reached the World Series, where they lost to the Dodgers.
But in the other three years, they've made quick exits. In 2019, they won the wildcard game over Oakland before losing in the ALDS to Houston. In 2021, they won the division but were knocked out in the ALDS by the Red Sox in four games. And this year, they were swept in the wild-card round in two games by Cleveland.
Generally, it takes dominant starting pitching and power to succeed in the postseason, neither of which the Rays have in great quantity. Instead, the Rays' lineup prioritizes versatility and contact, while the pitching staff is mostly full of assembly line pitching, with one anonymous reliever after another. Even their starters -- in the form of openers -- are glorified relievers.
Again, it's dangerous to draw too many inferences from a (relatively) small sample size. But it's worth noting that the Oakland A's -- who were the Rays before the Rays were the Rays -- suffered a similar fate. They kept reaching October and flaming out.
At some point, money matters.
_______________________________
It's fashionable to ridicule Chaim Bloom for his usual number of off-season waiver claims of fairly anonymous players. Whenever those moves are announced, the typical reaction on social media includes the sarcasm-filled: "Oh, this ought to put them over the top.''
The fact remains that these moves are made by virtually every organization because end of the roster depth is vital for a long season. And, you never know when you might stumble upon a John Schreiber - now a key piece to the Sox' bullpen who was claimed by the Sox from the Tigers in February of 2021.
End-of-the-roster contributors can be important pickups, or even just valuable placeholders.
That said, the scouting reports on the two recent Sox waiver pickups -- catcher Caleb Hamilton from Minnesota and righthanded reliever Jake Reed from Baltimore -- aren't overly encouraging.
Of Hamilton, another organization's reporters were: "Raw power with fringy defense. High strikeout guy, albeit with a high walk rate....A catcher with below average athleticism and hit tool...Lacks lateral agility to block pitches consistency.'' In other words, the hope is that there's enough power there that Hamilton can access to make up for some of the other shortcomings.
As for Reed: "Not a velo guy, with fastball ranging from 89-92 mph...More of an up-and-down guy (bouncing between Triple A and the majors), best seen as a depth option...Could serve as RH reliever depth...Has good deception with a low three-quarter delivery and capable of throwing strikes from different arm slots....Relies on sinker and slider...mostly a matchup guy (against righthanded hitters).'
