This could be a wild year in the NBA.
On one hand, there is a lot of parity in the league. At least six teams in the East (Boston, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Miami, Cleveland) can stake a legitimate claim to the top four seeds. Four more (Toronto, Atlanta, Chicago, and New York) all believe they can make the top six and avoid the play-in tournament.
On the other, Victor Wembanyama (and to a lesser degree, Scoot Henderson), is casting a huge shadow over the bottom half of the league. The 7’4” unicorn (or alien, or “WTF DID HE JUST DO?” factory) is being called the best prospect since LeBron James. He isn’t being compared to any single great player, rather combinations of great players. One estimate floating around the NBA sphere is that drafting Wembanyama alone could had $500 million in value to a team simply because of the massive interest he will generate.
His recent showcase in Las Vegas was enough to set the basketball world on fire, and now there is rampant speculation that the parity Adam Silver has worked towards could be ripped to shreds by a mad, mad, mad, mad race to the bottom by teams spinning their wheels in the middle of the pack.
Middling teams that sniff even a hint of adversity could suddenly enter a league-wide sell-off as everyone angles for their franchise savior. A Wonka-esque frenzy of teams searching for their golden ticket could feed contenders in the right position.
On top of that, the asking prices could be thrown out of whack by teams actively looking to get worse. Helpful players in return for stars can’t be so helpful that they derail the tank. Salary cap space and draft picks will be at a higher premium because whichever team lands Wembanyama will certainly nudge its way to the front of the pack of free-agency destinations.
A chance to play with a generational talent and get dragged to a championship is one that just can’t be missed.
This brings us to Grant Williams and the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics are part of the pack of lions converging on this watering hole. The top of the NBA is always stalking for a helpful player to shake free, but this year could present a bounty unlike most years.
That puts them in a tough situation when it comes to Williams and his contract extension. If reports are true that an extension is unlikely, then he will have to wait until July to get his money.
Getting that money shouldn’t be an issue for Williams. He’s been a very good role player for Boston and he’s expanding his offensive repertoire, so as long as he stays healthy, a nice new contract will be coming his way.
And it might be coming from the Celtics. Even if Williams tests the market, he’ll be a restricted free agent which gives Boston a chance to match. If the Celtics want him, they can keep him.
But extending Williams now creates what’s commonly referred to as a poison pill season. It’s something I’ve mentioned here before, and it makes Williams harder to move in a trade.
If the Celtics were to sign him to, let’s say, a four-year, $51-million deal, a team receiving Williams in a trade would have to use the average of all remaining years for salary matching purposes. That number in this example would be about $11 million ($51 million, plus his $4.3 million salary this year, divided by the five years he’s under contract). Boston would only be using his $4.3 million for salary matching purposes, which complicates trades.
The higher the extension Williams would get, the higher the average goes, and the harder it would get for him to be traded.
Yes, we’ve gone over all this before, but that's before Wembanyama changed the course of this NBA season.
Now the likelihood of a big-time player suddenly becoming available is a bit higher. Before, the debate about whether to extend Williams was more theoretical. Avoiding the poison pill was more about an off-chance. Now, the Celtics can’t afford to risk missing out on the feeding frenzy.
Williams is in the unfortunate position, business-wise, of being a very good role player. He’s the type of guy most teams will ask for in a trade while also being the guy who isn’t good enough to be the sticking point in a deal. He’s the “you gotta give something up to get something in return” guy.
And while it’s possible Boston can simply involve a third team to help make things work, or they can find creative ways to structure a deal so it can go through, it’s just easier to make this situation uncomplicated.
Beyond that, receiving teams like to be the ones who sign their new guys to contracts. A team getting Grant in a theoretical deal would much rather negotiate with him and his agent instead of taking whatever extension Boston has given. They have their own means of evaluating a player’s worth, and getting a useful guy on a rookie deal like this allows them to make their own decisions about his contract.
Williams and Danilo Gallinari can bring back a $13.4 million player, and that's just the starting point of what the C’s can do if someone better becomes available.
The flexibility to make a move has to be preserved. Wembanyama as the prize with Henderson as the consolation could suddenly create a dozen sellers by the trade deadline. The Celtics have exceptions and salaries to add to their roster or retool a bad fit. What was once a toss-up with Williams before is now a no-brainer.
Unless he’s an absolute must-keep player over the next four seasons, now is not the time to extend him. The Celtics need to keep every option available for this run, and they’ll need every tool they have to strike and snag a key player who could help raise another banner.
It might not make Williams happy, but he’ll get over it whenever he signs his next big contract. He’ll get his money, and there's still a good chance it will be with Boston, and he’ll be set for life. But the business of the NBA takes precedence here.
Wembanyama is going to be such big business for some team that a lot of franchises will make rash decisions just to buy that lottery ticket. Boston has no choice but to take advantage of that.
