8 questions that will define Bruins' 2022-23 season

WASHINGTON, D.C. — With the start of the Bruins' 2022-23 season just a day away, let’s delve into a few pressing questions that will determine just how legitimate Boston’s hopes of a “Last Dance” type of run are:

1. Can Bruins remain afloat in October/November?

With the addition of players like Pavel Zacha, the return of David Krejci and the expected contributions from younger players like Marc McLaughlin, the 2022-23 Bruins' depth chart stands to be much deeper than previous iterations crafted by Don Sweeney and Co.

Still, even with a number of able bodies ready to step into regular NHL minutes, no team can replace the void created by Charlie McAvoy and Brad Marchand's absences in October and November. 

“Not as good,” Sweeney said of the state of Boston’s D corps with McAvoy still on the mend from shoulder surgery. “Obviously, he’s a unique player and we miss him. Hopefully he gets back as quickly as possible. The other guys have all played for us and have played important roles and minutes, but that gets expanded when you’re talking about a player that plays an excess of 22 to 23 minutes a night in all situations. 

“You know, our whole team is going to have to recognize that we have to be good and it’s no different than having Brad [Marchand] out in that regard. The good news is that Matt Grzelcyk’s made a lot of progress and medically he’s in a good spot and now it’s just a matter of when he feels comfortable and Monty feels comfortable putting him in.” 

Yes, the Bruins had a knack for putting together second-half runs during Bruce Cassidy’s tenure as bench boss - and for as much as Thanksgiving is tabbed as the measuring stick for just how valid a team’s playoff hopes are, teams like the 2019 Blues have proven that slow starts can be rectified in short order. 

That being said, the Bruins still have some tough sledding ahead in October / November with McAvoy and Marchand (hip surgery) out of commission — coupled with the growing pains that usually come with a new coach trying to implement systems and identify chemistry in the lineup.

We predicted that the Bruins would be hovering around the .500 mark in November, an expected result for a team looking to tread water in the early going. 

But with matchups against the Capitals, Wild, Penguins, Rangers, Maple Leafs, Flames, Lightning (twice), Panthers, Hurricanes, Golden Knights (twice) and Avalanche (twice) etched on the docket during the first nine weeks of the new campaign — the Bruins are going to have to scratch and claw to remain afloat in the Atlantic this fall.

It’s one thing to try to keep pace with the usual suspects like the Lightning, Leafs or Panthers. But with both the Red Wings and Senators also expected to take major steps forward, the Bruins will be playing with fire if they start to find themselves sixth or seventh in the division as the calendar flips to December.

Based on all the comments we’ve heard so far during camp, the Bruins are already viewing Marchand and McAvoy’s returns as mid-season sparks, in a similar vein as a blockbuster trade pick-up. 

That’s all well and good. But that excitement will be pretty muted if both star skaters return to a squad already taking on the water in what stands to be a cutthroat Atlantic Division.

2. Can the Bruins get David Pastrnak to sign on the dotted line?

The Bruins’ hopes of getting David Pastrnak to sign off on an eight-year extension (that will almost surely be the most expensive contract doled out in franchise history) obviously carries a lot of weight in 2023 and beyond. 

As Boston braces itself for the post-Bergeron era, fastening a potential 50-goal sniper like Pastrnak into the bedrock of this franchise next to an all-world blueliner like McAvoy stands as a pretty good way to start building a future core of elite talent.

But with each passing day that Pastrnak continues to play with a label of pending UFA hanging over him, the Bruins’ chances of putting tougher the best possible roster this year dim more and more.

Even though the Bruins remain committed to bridging the gap with Pastrnak and his camp during regular-season action — and Pastrnak himself seems to be not sweating any scenario in which said bridge might get burned if talks stall — the team is going to find itself stuck between a rock and a hard place this spring if Pastrnak has still not crossed the t’s and dotted the i’s on a new deal.

Make no mistake, the Bruins have put all of their chips on the table for this year - as expected for a season in which Patrice Bergeron and Krejci are anchoring your pivot pipeline.

But the Bruins also can’t have a Johnny Gaudreau situation on their hands next summer, in which they lose a franchise talent for nothing on the open market.

If the Bruins don’t get a signed contract from Pastrnak at some point in the coming months, hard decisions might need to be made — ones that, at a minimum, will scrap any hope of Boston putting together a memorable run this season.

Of course, the Bruins seem ready and willing to back up the Brinks truck for Pastrnak. But the B’s are also going to need to make a convincing pitch for the future when it comes to keeping Pasta in Boston long-term.

“Obviously, a shot-first winger certainly wants to know who his centerman is going to be," Cam Neely said of Boston's pitch to Pastrnak. "We’ve made it very clear to David that we’re very aware of that particular position moving forward and we’re going to do everything we possibly can to fill that void when that happens.

“ I think that he also sees that we signed Charlie McAvoy long-term, we signed two good goaltenders that are with us, we got Lindholm long-term, Taylor Hall is here for a few more years, we got Brad Marchand for a couple more years. So, we’re not stripping it down by any means. I think he’s certainly been told that, and he recognizes that, and he knows that we’re in a good position this year. We’re here to show everybody that we're not stripping this thing down. We’re going to continue to build on it.”

3. Who rounds out the bottom-six grouping?

Once Marchand gets the green light to return to game action, there’s an awful lot to like about Boston’s top-six unit.

Even a Marchand at 80 percent of his previous capabilities is still an elite winger in the NHL, especially when slotted back next to the reigning Selke Trophy winner in Bergeron and a winger in Jake DeBrusk who found himself on a 30-goal pace last season after his top-six promotion.

Meanwhile, a second line of Krejci, Pastrnak and Taylor Hall is poised to feast against opposing defenses — with Krejci and Hall looking to build off of the absurd numbers they put forth in the spring of 2021 (Boston outscored opponents, 14-1, in Krejci + Hall’s 193 minutes of 5v5 ice time).

But further down on the depth chart, there is little set in stone.

Based on Tuesday’s lines, it seems as though Jim Montgomery is ready to roll with a bottom-six grouping of:

Greer-Coyle-Smith
Foligno-Nosek-Lauko

Fair to say, one shouldn’t expect a similar six-man unit by the time we get to April.

A dearth of secondary scoring has routinely doomed the Bruins in recent playoff runs, with a rebound showing from Boston’s third line a necessity for this squad.

At this point, it’s safe to assume that Charlie Coyle will be penciled in at 3C, while Craig Smith (looking to bounce back from a sordid showing against Carolina in the 2022 playoffs) is sticking at 3RW, at least for now.

But Boston continues to look for a consistent contributor on their left side, especially with Trent Frederic underwhelming so far during the preseason.

A potential breakout candidate in Pavel Zacha could grant that line another two-way regular, while A.J. Greer’s speed and physicality could also serve that puck-possession unit well. 

Meanwhile, the fourth line is even more jumbled up - especially as Montgomery looks to craft a forward trio whose objective goes beyond top-six matchups and heaps of D-zone starts.

“I want energy — you want to take, if you're starting in the D zone, you want to end up leaving good ice for the next wave of guys coming over in the offensive zone," Montgomery said. "You start in the offensive zone, you want to continue the momentum. Hem them in. You want them to be hard, you want them to be heavy. 

“You want them to get to the net front, and you want to make life hard on the opposing team, especially if they're able to — like you look at a game like yesterday, the Rangers have Fox. You want him to be in his own end, you don't want him to get going north. So the more we can be on top of people like that and hem them in their own end, that's what you're looking for from the fourth line — is momentum more than it is, so to speak, defensive identity or scoring goals.”

Veterans like Nick Foligno and Tomas Nosek might get the first crack at entrenching themselves on that checking unit, but with Frederic, Greer, Jack Studnicka — and, eventually, Providence regulars in Marc McLaughlin and even Johnny Beecher — all waiting in the wings, expect plenty of mixing and matching for Montgomery as he looks to roll with the best available grouping on this momentum-shifting fourth line. 

4. Can goalies take a leap forward?

The Bruins, when healthy, could roll out one of the best top-six units in the NHL. Once McAvoy returns, Montgomery should have no shortage of options when it comes to augmenting Boston’s blue line. The club’s stingy, layered zone defense isn’t going away any time soon. 

But the odds of Boston orchestrating another deep Cup run might all hinge on whether or not the team’s goaltending duo of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark can take another step forward.

After a 2021-22 campaign in which both Ullmark and Swayman each started 41 games, the Bruins seem more than willing to follow a similar game plan when it comes to both goalies’ respective workloads.

“The Bruins have had tremendous success both ways. I think a lot of credit has to go to Bob Essensa. He’s done a great job developing the relationship with the goalies, making sure that the Bruins get excellent goaltending throughout the regular season to be able to have the opportunity to get in the playoffs,” Montgomery said. “I think everyone would say, ideally, you have a number one by the time you get into the playoffs and after the trade deadline. That’s up to one of those two goaltenders to emerge ahead of the other. In today’s NHL, to have success in the regular season, with as many threes and fours as you have. You have to have two goalies that can do the job night in and night out.” 

Of course, the Bruins will be hoping for a young goalie like Swayman to further develop into a potential No. 1 — building on the promise he first showed during his fantastic 10-game debut in 2021 (.945 save percentage, two shutouts). 

Both Ullmark and Swayman were aided last season by Boston’s stout defense, which ranked first in the NHL last season in 5v5 high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes (8.66). Of course, it remains to be seen if Boston can keep those sterling numbers up this season as Montgomery opts to sacrifice a bit more structure for scoring chances on the blue line, but both Ullmark and Swayman are also due for improvement after ranking 39th and 43rd, respectively, in high-danger save percentage last season. 

It’s not fair to Swayman (or Ullmark, for that matter) to expect a Vezina-worthy campaign in 2022-23. But with Swayman another year older (and Ullmark another year settled into a high-stakes market like Boston), both B’s goalies can (and should) build off solid showings last season. 

 5. How do D pairs shake out?

The Bruins might be on the ropes in the early going until McAvoy returns, but that early-season snafu could evolve into a fantastic problem to have for Montgomery and Co. once Boston’s entire D corps is at full strength.

“Where we start right now without having those guys makes you feel like you need,” Sweeney said of Boston’s defensive logjam. “You go through defensemen throughout the course of the season. You just have guys that can step in and play minutes in all different situations, which we currently have, and we’re better off when we do.”

Even with three-plus weeks of training camp in the books, very little has been settled when it comes to Boston’s defensive pairings — be it Hampus Lindholm’s ideal top-pairing partner, Mike Reilly’s uneven spot in the lineup following his waiver-wire adventure, Jakub Zboril’s up-and-down preseason, Anton Stralman’s new $1 million contract and much more.

Add in the need for bounce-back performances from both Brandon Carlo and a now-healthy Matt Grzelcyk, and the Bruins have a lot of potential (and a whole bunch of uncertainty) present in what has usually been a reliable strength with this squad on the blue line.

For as much as the Bruins thrived last season when a Lindholm-McAvoy pairing was deployed (Boston outscored teams, 12-3, in their 131:22 of 5v5 ice time together), it would be interesting to see if this six-man unit gets a look later on in the season.

Grzelcyk-McAvoy
Lindholm-Carlo
Forbort-Zboril/Stralman

6. Can Bruins buy into Montgomery’s systems?

Bergeron fighting off Father Time and Krejci returning from Czechia might stand as the B’s most significant offseason moves in terms of the talent on the ice, but the B’s are also expecting a major lift in the form of a new presence behind the bench in  Montgomery.

Of course, most of the discourse and drama surrounding Boston’s coaching change has revolved around buzzwords and phrases like “communication” and “youth movement”. But Montgomery’s true value to this team — at least in terms of the on-ice product — might come by way of his new systems, especially when it comes to unlocking more offense on this roster. 

Some of the hallmarks of Montgomery-led teams in the past usually involve teams that focus on puck possession, quality over quantity when it comes to shot volume and a willingness to commit “hard mistakes” — where a commitment to an aggressive push up the ice or activation off the blue line must be met with equal effort down the other end of the ice in case of a miscue or a puck-recovery battle. 

That focus on settling for high-danger attempts down low instead of peppering an opposing netminder should cater to players who tend to pick their spots well like DeBrusk, but the grouping that might be most excited about Montgomery’s arrival is Boston’s defensive unit, considering Montgomery’s comments about pushing the pace in transition and taking the reins off of some of the B’s fleet-footed blueliners. 

Of course, that added offensive freedom does open the door for more risk down the other end of the ice — with some of those growing pains present during a number of defensive lapses during preseason action. 

Similar to the Stars during Montgomery’s first month or so behind the bench, it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise to see the B’s slow out of the gate when it comes to executing their new coach’s vision, especially when it comes to adding layers of offense by way of an active D. 

But even with those expected hurdles, the Bruins sure seem to have the personnel in place to carry out Montgomery’s plans, and it does seem like that enthusiasm for a more high-octane attack is shared by his players. 

“I love that style of play,” Coyle said. “I can think back to when I was in Minnesota playing against Chicago, especially when we're in our D zone. Chicago, their men are moving, they're interchanging and it's so hard to cover. And you're playing defense that way and you lose coverage. As long as you're responsible, there's a puck turned over, we got to be responsible and have guys come back right away. So it's not just on the center, it's everyone — it's whoever's that kind of high guy or coming in for a D because they can jump up. At center, I think you're more prone to look for that stuff and be ready for it. But it's — it's kind of like everyone has to be on the same page and make sure we're responsible that way. But I think it’s going to create a lot of offense for us. And I'm really looking forward it.”

7. Which youngsters can break through? 

There are already a number of unproven players on Boston’s roster as of Tuesday afternoon — be it Frederic, Studnicka or Jakub Lauko. 

Lauko, a camp surprise who seems in line to start Wednesday’s game at the 4RW spot, has impressed Montgomery and his staff with his straight-line speed and physicality: two traits that apparently played into the team’s decision to send McLaughlin down to Providence to open the year. 

“He's doing what we've asked. He's bringing speed, he's keeping pucks in the offensive zone or taking pucks into hard areas," Montgomery said of Lauko. "That's why he's been here this long. … He's done the things that are necessary, that I think builds momentum on the third or fourth line especially with his speed, attacking the net, he's physical. He's lippy out there. He's a little bit of an agitator. He gets under people's skin." 

Lauko’s ability to stick up in the NHL ranks, coupled with Studnicka’s continued pursuit of Boston’s 4C spot, stand as two storylines to follow in October. But as the year carries on, Boston’s most intriguing prospects — headlined by Fabian Lysell — could be in line to supplement the B’s roster with some much-needed skill.

At this juncture, we’re going to opt for the cautious route when it comes to Lysell’s development and predict that he spends a majority of the season down in Providence. But if the 19-year-old Swede pops in his first foray into AHL action and exceeds expectations, the B’s would welcome it, especially if gets an established veteran like Smith to start looking over his shoulder.

The bottom-six grouping will likely be where most B’s prospects cut their teeth this season, whether that be a youngster destined for more NHL minutes like McLaughlin or a physical skater who seems to fit the mold of what Montgomery is looking for on that fourth line in Beecher.

The B’s may not have the most stacked farm system in the league, but 2022-23 could be the year in which a few of Boston’s blue-chip prospects begin to assert themselves as everyday NHLers. 

8. How much do Bruins' key cogs have left in the tank?

We’ve talked about a lot of variables that could determine the success of this Bruins team: be it goaltending, system tweaks and various roster battles.

But let’s face it. If the Bruins don’t continue to get elite production from the same veteran core that has propped open this contention window for over a decade, everything else will collapse like a house of cards. 

And even though the Bruins have reaped the benefits for years now when it comes to expecting 60+ points (and great defensive metrics) from the likes of Bergeron, Marchand and Krejci, Boston is also playing a dangerous game when it comes to trying to placate an inevitable force like Father Time.

Yes, Bergeron is coming off of arguably the greatest defensive season of his Hall-of-Fame career at age 36, but the B’s captain is also trudging through yet another arduous campaign with a LOT of mileage tacked onto that body. 

Even though Krejci (at age 36) has a lot more firepower to work with this season in Hall and Pastrnak, the jury remains out for some when it comes to whether or not the veteran pivot can still drive a top-six grouping after spending the previous year back in Europe. 

“I feel like I have a lot to offer still. I know people talk about my age, but it's just a number,” Krejci said. “I feel I'm in good shape. And yeah, obviously, I'm coming back to try to go all the way. But I've been in the league a long time, so I know what it takes to make the playoffs and go all the way. So just one step at a time. I know we have some injuries early on, some key players, so we're going to miss those guys for sure. And maybe that's going to bring our team closer right at the beginning. That would be good.” 

Marchand might be the youngest of the group, but after undergoing double-hip surgery this summer, the B’s top agitator and on-ice adrenaline shot faces an uphill climb when it comes to getting back to his usual standing as one of the game’s elite wingers. 

"I don't want to be definitive in what the timetable is, but just trying to kind of see how I feel,” Marchand said of his recovery. “I haven't dealt with anything like this before where I feel really good, but I still have to be careful with where I'm at — like my surgeries I've done before where, once I feel good, I can go. It's not quite like that with this one. So I just got to be careful."

The Bruins have dodged a number of bullets over the years when it comes to this veteran core avoiding career-altering injuries or sudden drops in production. They’ll be hoping for at least one more stretch of good fortune in 2022-23.