Could Pavel Zacha be in line for a scoring surge with Bruins?

For all of the discourse surrounding former top-10 picks and the expectations placed upon them in the NHL ranks, a player like Pavel Zacha (sixth overall, 2015) has already been molded into a useful cog that can fit into just about any roster in the league.

Even though his scoring totals (179 points over 386 games with New Jersey) may not leap off the page, especially when factoring in his draft pedigree, Zacha boasts a unique skillset that should benefit his new club in the Bruins — beyond just his versatility and willingness to play on the wing during the 2022-23 season.

On a Bruins team that remains committed to smothering teams with a layered zone defense, a two-way forward like Zacha shouldn’t miss a beat, while his ability to play off the rush and push the puck through the neutral zone are often facets of the game that don’t always translate to tangible production — but are essential components of a generating a consistent scoring output, especially at even-strength play. 

Be it in a top-six role near the start of the season or eventually down in a third-line spot next to a pair of talented (but sometimes inconsistent) forwards in Charlie Coyle and Craig Smith, Zacha could handle the responsibilities of doing the dirty work when it comes to both generating clean entries and pushing the puck out of danger — with the 25-year-old forward ranking in the 99th percentile of entry possession rates, 94th percentile of exit possession rates and the 97th percentile of rush assists last season.

Of course, even though there’s more than meets the eye with Zacha than just a plug-and-play NHL forward — the Bruins also didn’t swing a trade for the Czech skater just for his ability to move the puck cleanly and chip in with 30 or so points in 2022-23.

Given their initial plans of sticking him with Patrice Bergeron and Jake DeBrusk in October, it’s clear that the Bruins believe that Zacha still has more to give in the offensive zone. 

And while it’s perhaps unreasonable to think that Zacha could suddenly see his production spike from his expected scoring output of 30+ points (his 36 points last year was a career-high) to, say, 60+ points — some of his talents in the offensive zone, if utilized properly, could allow Zacha to become a dependable regular capable of burying 20+ goals and 45-50 points. Such is a stat line that a win-now B’s team will certainly welcome. 

Of course, the natural correlation one could draw when it comes to arguing for a breakthrough season for Zacha in a black-and-gold sweater would be a stronger supporting cast around him. 

Even though Zacha earned a lot of heavy minutes next to a talented young pivot last season in Nico Hischier (478 minutes of 5v5 ice time), earning reps next to Bergeron for the first two months of the 2022-23 campaign should offer a significant upgrade — one that could be further complemented if DeBrusk builds off of last year’s scorching scoring stretch next to the B’s captain. 

“Well, we certainly hope so,” Don Sweeney said of Zacha’s ability to generate more offense. “You play with better players, you know, and opportunity-wise, hopefully you can take advantage of that. I think early on you're going to get an indication you may not be playing in the middle of the ice, you may be playing the wing, but we think he has that upside in a positional need for us. 

“And as well as the age band for us, it was a combination. You've got size, you got a positional need, you got versatility in the player and an age that fits in a dynamic as I referenced with Joe's question of that next wave of players that are going to are going to move forward in the future with us.” 

But beyond just the potential to generate more chances in a strong B’s top-six unit, Zacha could be in line to take a major step forward in his own game thanks to a heavy, effective shot that the B’s are looking for him to showcase more and more this season.

Even though Zacha has never been a lethal sniper at the NHL level (his career-high for tallies in a season was 17 goals — albeit in just 50 games in 2020-21), he certainly has the potential to light the lamp at a higher rate, due in large part to his quick release.

And unlike most NHLers who are unable to crack that 20-goal threshold, Zacha has generally been pretty consistent when it comes to utilizing that shot in Grade-A ice — with 65 percent of his shots last season coming in high-danger areas in and around the slot.

For Zacha, the only true impediment when it comes to that shot translating to goals has been a lack of volume, with the forward averaging 6.51 shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5v5 play last season. 

Among the 387 NHL forwards who logged 500 minutes of 5v5 ice time last season, Zacha ranked 240th overall with that 6.51 shots/60 rate — with even bottom-six regulars with Boston like Trent Frederic (8.84 shots/60) and Nick Foligno (7.94) showing more of a willingness to get pucks on net. 

Based on both Zacha and the B’s top brass’ comments in recent weeks, it’s clear that all parties agree that stressing a higher shot volume stands at the top of the list of the forward’s goals this season. 

“He made a comment, Mark Recchi was telling him he needs to shoot and be a little more selfish,” Sweeney said of Zacha. “And he does have a really, really good shot. Where you play him on the power play from our stake with March being out as you go in the other elbow — I mean, those are conversations Jimmy and I had or started to have and he'll tinker with and those guys will figure it out, you know, and John Gruden, who may be part of the power play side of things. 

 “He has all the talent to be able to take advantage of the situational opportunity. And it'll be up to him to hopefully finish maybe at a little higher rate. And as I referenced, he's played with good players and younger players and he'll play with good players that are established here and hopefully just take advantage of it. But we do believe there's a higher offensive ceiling there as a good two-way player, but with a higher offensive ceiling that hopefully he can tap into.” 

Of course, it’s one thing to stress the need to fire in more pucks and another hurdle entirely when it comes to having the confidence to uncork those shots in a game setting. 

But the talent is there for Zacha to become a legitimate scoring threat in Boston’s middle-six grouping this season. 

It’s a development that would benefit Zacha tremendously ahead of his first foray into unrestricted free agency next summer — and would validate what Boston saw in the still-young forward when they plucked him out of New Jersey earlier this summer. 

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey and IcyData Hockey.