If you're Bill Belichick and you were debuting your new coaching staff — one that has definitely at least raised eyebrows around the league with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge running the offense — and ironing out the kinks in the early going, starting with the Dolphins and Steelers was as soft an opening as you could ask for.
The Dolphins were a complete unknown on offense, with Mike McDaniel not only serving as a head coach for the first time, but it was also his initial foray into playcalling. But the Dolphins' defense was being coordinated by former Patriots assistant Josh Boyer — having featured the same scheme in Brian Flores' two seasons as head coach — so it was very familiar to New England.
"Their structure is very similar to ours," Belichick said ahead of Miami's 20-7 victory. "I think we can look at most of their defenses and put it exactly into our terminology."
In other words, the Patriots could prepare their offense for the Dolphins during the week, knowing exactly what to expect. Even on gameday, it wouldn't take much brainpower for them to make any adjustments. Belichick could certainly help there, but his mind would be needed much more reacting on the fly to McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki.
In the end, the Patriots' defense did their part, but the offense — even with knowledge of the defensive coordinator and his tactics — was largely a mess, with seven points, 271 total yards and one red zone trip while turning the ball over four times (including once on downs).
The Steelers, in Week 2, were a different challenge from a coaching perspective. Sure, they had dangerous playmakers on offense, but their system under Matt Canada and with QB Mitch Trubisky running the show, wasn't exactly the kind of attack that would keep Belichick up at night. Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo wouldn't need as much help against an offense that is now (after Thursday's punchless loss dropped them to 1-2) 28th in yards and first downs.
The Steelers' defense, with former Patriots assistant Brian Flores featured as an assistant head coach, was going to be an unpredictable challenge in this game, and Belichick's influence was going to be needed to counteract that. It appears that was the case. The gameplan decisions, from the plan, to playcalls and personnel choices, were much more coherent. As opposed to Miami, Mac Jones and the offense had a chance to make plays against the Steelers.
(Getty Images)
The coaching structure was completely changed against the Steelers. Assistant line coach Billy Yates, after spending the first half of every other game (including preseason) in the coaches' booth, was on the sideline for the entire game to help the line with adjustments. That freed up Patricia, who doubles as the offensive line coach and coordinator, to check in with every position group, especially the quarterbacks. And Belichick was much more involved with the offensive adjustments between possessions, sometimes as a detriment to the defense. When the officials gave the Steelers a first down after 3rd and 17 on a dubious spot, Belichick was with the offense and walked to the sideline late trying to ascertain what was going on right before the snap — never getting off a challenge.
The result was expected: the defense again did its part, and the offense doubled its touchdown total (one was a 10-yard drive after a muffed punt). Thanks to Belichick's strong hand, the Patriots looked capable on offense.
Today's game against the Ravens will be an altogether different challenge. The Patriots have no discernible advantage on either side of the ball — and Baltimore's special teams unit is the best in the league, according to FootballOutsiders.com's metric (Patriots are 18th).
Unless Belichick can be in three places at once, this is an early barometer on whether Belichick's curious offseason coaching decisions can be successful. If you were looking for one game to give you an indication as to whether Belichick is still a crazy genius, or just crazy, this is it. This is an extreme stress test on the Patriots' coaching infrastructure.
Consider:
- Since the arrival of Lamar Jackson as the Ravens' starting quarterback and being paired with offensive coordinator Greg Roman (2019), Baltimore has one of the most varied offenses in the league. On any series, you can see Jackson under center with I-formation, solo in the backfield in shotgun, with a full-house backfield, in the pistol, running regular playaction (passer rating on playaction is 157.9 this season), or read-option — and, really, everything in between. The Ravens could put two RBs on the field with a FB, multiple tight ends or multiple receivers.
They are a much bigger challenge to defend this season — as opposed to years past — because of the emergence of young receivers Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay (both were the top two NFL players in speed in Week 2). In the past, it was easier to focus on Jackson, and make TE Mark Andrews the No. 1 target to take away, while largely ignoring the receivers who were ineffective, old or both. Defenses now must defend every part of the Ravens' offense, to say nothing of the fact that Jackson continues to develop as a passer, and can still do this if you don't fit the run to a T:
LAMAR JACKSON 79-YARD TD 🔥
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 18, 2022
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/eAleWiZVn6
The Patriots like to play man coverage, and the Ravens are the second-best team against man coverage on offense. New England also blitzed Miami a lot, but Jackson has been nearly perfect against the blitz (148.1 rating this season).
In other words, the Patriots will likely need all of Belichick's immense powers on the defensive side of the ball to make sure the Patriots keep this game within striking distance. You can't draw up a paint-by-numbers playsheet, expect to go on autopilot and keep the Ravens in the 20s.
- The Ravens made the surprising choice in the offseason to part ways with defensive coordinator Don Martindale and replace him with 35-year-old former Michigan DC (and Boston native) Mike MacDonald, who was a Ravens assistant from 2014-2020. With just two games to go on, MacDonald is very much an unknown to the Patriots, so in-game adjustments will be key. The Ravens traditionally blitz more than any other team, and Mac Jones has a passer rating of 41.1 this season when the opponent sends an extra rusher.
The Ravens rank 8th in the league in pass rush win rate (Patriots' offensive line is 8th) and 5th in run stop win rate (Patriots line is 26th).
Put that together and it's not a stretch to say the Patriots will need the very best out of their offensive braintrust — which now features Belichick as the star — to counteract what the Ravens are doing in order to far exceed their 21.0 points per game average (29th in the league). Oh, and the Ravens' special teams are good and spotted the team a 7-0 lead against the Dolphins by returning the opening kickoff for a score.
How good is this Patriots' coaching staff? How many holes can Belichick plug and how many places can he be in?
We should have a very good indication — and that of the Patriots' prospects this season — by 4 p.m. today.
(Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
New England Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork, New England Patriots chairman and CEO Robert Kraft, Andre Tippet and New England Patriots wide receivers / kick returners coach Troy Brown during the induction of Vince Wilfork into the New England Patriots Hall of Fame presented by Raytheon Technologies on September 24, 2022, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
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NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Congrats to Big Vince Wilfork on his deserving induction into the Patriots' Hall of Fame. Long way from Santaluces High.
Celebrating 75.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 24, 2022
A look at @wilfork75's induction into @TheHall. pic.twitter.com/dBSH12VGKm
2. In the third round of the 2020 draft, the Patriots traded up in front of the Ravens and when the NFL announced New England had selected, "Devin ..." the air about went out of Ravens GM Eric DeCosta, the Taunton native, and John Harbaugh. But when "Asiasi" was announced as the Patriots' pick, instead of Duvernay, the Ravens' reaction turned from horror to elation.
John Harbaugh said he was so excited about getting Devin Duvernay because he thought the Patriots might have traded in front of the Ravens just to get Devin. The Pats did end up drafting a “Devin” but not the Ravens’ “Devin.”
— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) April 25, 2020
pic.twitter.com/Z7ZnRUrtLJ
From that night after the draft:
John, [the television broadcast] caught you after the WR Devin Duvernay pick. You were very excited it looked like. Was it over the pick? It looked like you punched your arms up. Was it from that pick? Do you know what I'm talking about?
John Harbaugh: “Yes, it was Devin Duvernay, yes. That was the pick. I remember. I was excited, because I think New England – they traded in there right in front of us, right?” (Reporter: “I believe so, yes.”) “So, I was just kind of excited, because you never know who they're coming to get and what they were going to do. We were just hoping that we would get Devin [Duvernay], so once they took [Devin] Asiasi and our guy was there, I was pretty fired up about it.”
DeCosta: “If I could just say one thing: What made that really funny was New England traded up in front of us, and we were kind of sweating it, because for me [Devin] Duvernay was one of my favorite guys this year in the draft. So, I was sweating it anyways thinking they were going to come up and take him. So, when they announced the pick, the guy they took, [Devin] Asiasi, his first name is Devin. (laughter) We were all stunned that they were taking our Devin, but they took their Devin. So, it all worked out for us.”
Harbaugh: “I have to be honest. I'm going to make the call, and they said, ‘The Patriots took Devin.’ And I'm like, ‘Did we get Devin or not? Who am I calling? What's his first name?’” (laughter)
Of course, the Patriots released Asiasi this summer after appearing in 10 games with two catches for 39 yards in two seasons.
Duvernay was the All-Pro punt returner last year, and had 53 catches for 483 yards and 2 TDs his first two seasons. This year, he has six catches for 96 yards and 2 TDs, and a 103-yard kickoff return.
3. Matthew Judon will be facing his former team for the first time.
“It’s just another game, honestly,” Judon said. “If we win or if we lose, we just get one win, we just get one loss. I want to win. I want to win every game. But there’s no bad blood. It was all business. I still talk to a lot of the guys on that team. After the game, I’m going to shake their hand and love on them and all that. I wish nothing but the best for anybody over there. But it’s just one game.”
Look for CB Shaun Wade to have a little more of an ax to grind: the Ravens traded him to the Patriots after making him a fifth-round pick last year for a 2022 seventh-round selection and a 2023 fifth-rounder.
4. Harbaugh has yet to win a regular-season road game at Gillette (he's also winless at Arizona, San Francisco, Minnesota and at the Giants). All four losses to the Patriots have been decided by seven points or fewer, with an average margin 5.5 points. Harbaugh does have two postseason wins at Gillette: 2009 wild-card and 2012 AFC Championship.
5. We'll see just how unbeatable the Bills are today in their undefeated AFC East showdown with the Dolphins. The Bills will be without both star safeties as Micah Hyde (neck) was put on season-ending IR and Jordan Poyer (foot) is out. CB Dane Jackson and DTs Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips are out as well. CB Tre'Davious White still hasn't returned from offseason surgery.