The contrast couldn't have been more striking.
Two young quarterbacks made their season debuts with new play callers in new systems when the Patriots faced the Dolphins on Sunday.
One, Tua Tagovailoa, was efficient and, for the most, calm as he went about his business for a 104.4 rating and a +2.9 Completion Percentage Above Expectation (9th in NFL).
The other, Mac Jones, struggled to be all that productive — outside of two throws to Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne (that accounted for 32 percent of his 213 yards) — with an 85.7 rating and a -0.7 CPAE (16th).
Both players had two big pass plays that accounted for 68 of their passing yards. Tagovailoa averaged 6.5 yards per attempt on his other throws; Jones 5.2. That's a fairly sizeable difference. Sure, some of it has to do with the fact that the Dolphins have multiple players who have breakaway speed and can make plays, and the Patriots do not.
But it also has to do with the fact that one QB was working with an offensive coordinator and play caller who has studied for years at the craft of understanding what you're going to get from the defense in certain situations, manipulating the defense, and then calling and designing a play that takes advantage of your QBs strengths — but also minimizes their weaknesses. And the other QB was obviously working at a disadvantage when it came to all that.
Before we get into the Patriots' unit grades, player ratings, and 5 up/5 down (expanded edition for BSJ members), let's show you an example of McDaniel making life easy for Tagovailoa, and then the Patriots' struggles in the second half — even on their scoring drive.
4th quarter: 1-10-MIA 37 (4:55) T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to J.Waddle to MIA 49 for 12 yards (D.McCourty).
This is right after the Nelson Agholor fumble. The game isn't quite over yet with 4:55 to play and the Patriots having two timeouts and the two-minute warning, but it's pretty close.
As a play caller, you are getting paid to correctly anticipate what the defense is going to do in this spot, and call the best play possible against it. The good ones hit at a high percentage.
McDaniel figures the Patriots will stack the box against an anticipated run looking for a quick three-and-out, and likely play conservative in coverage to counteract the Dolphins' speed. McDaniel calls for hard run action, and a backside slant pass.
This used to be a bread-and-butter play for the Patriots — their bang-action. On Sunday, the Patriots ran two play-action passes (6.1 percent). The Dolphins ran it 17 times (46 percent). Play-action helps an offense get spacing in their passing game — without the need for talent — which should make it easier for the passer. That was the case here, on a first down that basically ended the game.
McDaniel also built in late motion by the tight end, which shifted the linebackers to manipulate the coverage further, and increased the completion percentage.
This is coordinating and playcalling. Video breakdown:
Let's compare that to several important plays for the Patriots down the stretch. You tell me how much Matt Patricia helped his QB and offense in the biggest parts of the game, as we also look at execution errors:
2-3-MIA 30 (8:18) R.Stevenson left tackle to MIA 30 for no gain (E.Ogbah, R.Davis).
Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu lose leverage.
3-3-MIA 30 (7:36) (Shotgun) D.Harris up the middle to MIA 28 for 2 yards (Z.Sieler, R.Davis).
4-1-MIA 28 (7:04) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to D.Parker. PENALTY on MIA-X.Howard, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 28 - No Play.
Patricia tries to sneak Nelson Agholor into the backfield and run a pick play for him as Patricia obviously anticipates the Dolphins bringing heavy pressure. They do not as Jerome Baker stays home and eliminates Agholor. Then Jakobi Meyers and Damien Harris run into each other. The play is so screwed up, Jones throws a jump ball and they are bailed out by an iffy penalty.
1-10-MIA 23 (6:57) R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 23 for no gain (E.Ogbah, K.Crossen).
Strange, Isaiah Wynn and Jonnu Smith all lose their blocks and the Dolphins have a team meeting in the backfield.
2-10-MIA 23 (6:17) M.Jones pass short right to J.Smith to MIA 8 for 15 yards (J.Baker; C.Wilkins).
Finally, a play-action pass. Looks like it is designed to feature an over/under route by Meyers and Agholor, but Agholor runs the wrong route and ends up in the same area as Meyers. Patriots bailed out when the safety loses Smith due to the run action (what a novel concept) and then misses the tackle. Good play by Smith.
1-8-MIA 8 (5:34) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to D.Harris (Z.Sieler).
Patriots finally get into the red zone and they run a designed pass in the flat to Harris with the Dolphins in obvious zone coverage? This would not have happened last year. Jones would have checked to another play and go elsewhere with the ball. Even though the ball is tipped, Harris would not have advanced the ball much. This was not a good play against this defense.
2-8-MIA 8 (5:31) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to D.Harris to MIA 6 for 2 yards (N.Needham, E.Roberts).
And on second down ... they throw to Harris again in the other flat against the same zone coverage? Both of these throws are good against man coverage ... not zone. Jones has no option but to throw them. Smith in the slot, or some sort of high/low concept with Parker and Meyers in the corner of the end zone would be much better.
3-6-MIA 6 (4:50) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to T.Montgomery for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Patriots finally score ... with a third straight pass to a back in the flat, but only because the Dolphins blew the coverage as Howard was the only play in man.
This was not a good drive. That's eight plays, and none of them were good against that defense. Patriots got lucky with a penalty and two Dolphins coverage busts.
FOURTH QUARTER
2-6-NE 42 (13:45) R.Stevenson left tackle to NE 42 for no gain (R.Davis, E.Ogbah).
Outside zone run left. Andrews, Brown and Onwenu don't make their blocks.
3-6-NE 42 (12:59) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to J.Meyers (D.Riley) [E.Ogbah].
Jones hit after Brown loses Ogbah. Jones a bit fooled by the Dolphins rotating their coverage late, which is a tip of the cap to Josh Boyer, and he throws late to Meyers.
3-3-50 (10:24) T.Montgomery up the middle to 50 for no gain (Z.Sieler).
Cajuste and Brown both don't make their blocks. Not a great running play against the Bear front (both guards, center covered up) the Dolphins are showing.
4-3-50 (9:46) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to H.Henry (K.Kohou). Penalty on NE-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined.
No motion or anything, and Parker appears to wrong the incorrect route, which sends Jones into playground mode and a jump ball to Henry.
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Here are the positional ratings against the Dolphins:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (1.5 out of 5)
Jones' only plus plays were his two biggest throws of the game. Had him for seven minus decisions, which is about three or four games worth last year. Watching this offense, I'm at a loss at how much is actually Jones' fault. Some of the plays we talked about previously seemed like called plays to the sidelines, due to Jones' quick decision to throw. And the Parker INT was definitely a shot play, along with the Jonnu Smith overthrow. I'm definitely confused by what I'm watching. In previous years, you could look at a defense and what the Patriots were doing and almost predict where the ball was going to go due to coverage or matchup. Not any longer. And I fear Jones is feeling the same way when he drops back to pass. He definitely does not have the answers to the test.
Running backs (3 out of 5)
Damien Harris (2 broken tackles) had a minus run, Ty Montgomery (TD, plus pass block) was at fault on a missed check down, and Rhamondre Stevenson broke a tackle. And that was about it. This group needs more work. Montgomery (IR) will be missed. He was solid out of the backfield and in pass pro. Will have to fall to Harris and Stevenson. Highly doubt Pierre Strong is ready, even if he is up for depth purposes.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
Jones and this offense would be lost without Meyers, who seems about the only reliable target. ... Smith (3 broken tackles) looked to have more juice than last season, and needs to touch the ball more, especially on screens. ... Parker was a complete non-factor and the worry is the book is being written that you just need to be physical with him and he shuts down. ... The Patriots' 12 personnel with Henry (non-factor), Smith, Parker and Meyers is slllloooowwwww. ... Have to mix in the legs of Agholor (drop and a fumble ... yikes), Kendrick Bourne and Smith more. ... Don't be afraid to mix in four or five wides once in while, just as a curve ball.
Offensive line (2 out of 5)
In order of effectiveness: David Andrews (drop off), Isaiah Wynn and Mike Onwenu, Cole Strange, (drop off) Trent Brown. Yodny Cajuste and James Ferentz were not good in their appearances. ... You sub for a rookie and Wynn, but you don't give the mammoth Brown a breather? How does that work? ... Strange was solid in his debut. Allowed 1.5 pressures and had some issues in the run game. Most of it is just some technique stuff due to his overaggressiveness. He'll settle down in time.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (4 out of 5)
Very nice debut by this group against the run. Hopefully that's a great sign they're on the rebound. ... Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise and Davon Godchaux were the top players. Godchaux still had some gap issues, but solid start. ... Carl Davis with just a brutal penalty on 4th and 1. ... Have no idea what happened with Christian Barmore, will have to go back and watch. He was good against the run, but zero impactful plays stand out. He only had two such games last season: Titans and Bills playoff game.
Linebackers (1.5 out of 5)
This group still has a ton of issues in the pass game. It might be the weakest part of the team after one game. McMillan was by far the worst, with Wilson at least showing some pop against the run. ... Bentley had a good game. Only error was his pass drop on the Waddle touchdown.
Secondary (2.5 out of 5)
If you're letting Tagovailoa have a 104.4 rating while getting pressured 38 percent of the time, that means the coverage isn't good enough. That's a good pass rush, and you should be able to play good coverage behind it. A lot of it had to do with the linebackers, but Dugger, Bryant and Jack Jones all had big coverage issues. ... Dugger was great in the box, and weak in coverage three times. He's starting to become Patrick Chung: only a box safety or man-to-man cover guy. ... Jonathan Jones had a great game for an assignment against Tyreek Hill. Wonder if he goes back to being a slot corner.
FIVE UP
Matthew Judon: Completely dominant with pressure in this game.
Jakobi Meyers: Always there to make a play in a big spot.
Deatrich Wise: Brought pressure and played the run well. But 50 is a lot of snaps for him.
David Andrews: Very nearly a clean sheet.
Davon Godchaux: Good start with that contract extension.
FIVE DOWN
Trent Brown: Gave up nearly half the pressure in this game. His buy-in has to be in question.
Mac Jones: No question he didn't play well. I have lots of questions about whether that's his fault or not.
Raekwon McMillan: Gave up four receptions on four targets. They need him to be better than that.
Devante Parker: Two targets and one measly catch?
Hunter Henry: Needs to have more of an impact than two catches. Again, I don't think it's his fault.