There's no question that the Patriots' initial 53-man roster will be complicated by injuries. Both Tyquan Thornton (two months) and Ty Montgomery (week to week) figure to miss at least some time. They'll likely have to be placed on the in-season IR, which requires them to be on the initial 53-man roster.
The in-season IR rules: teams will now have eight players permitted to return from IR and/or the reserve/non-football injury/illness list to the 53-man active roster or the practice squad, per season. An individual player can return from IR a maximum of twice per season, but each time counts against the team's allotted eight designations.
Yodny Cajuste was also missing from practice today — he was on a cart after the game — so that could complicate things, if he was even destined for the roster.
So with Thornton and likely Montgomery, the Patriots will need to cut two players they would have otherwise kept.
Those players for me on this 53-man roster: DE Sam Roberts, who has some promise; and one of the tight ends, either Matt Sokol (who I would keep) or Devin Asiasi.
But let's not confuse things about this Patriots roster, there is a distinct lack of top-end talent, or at least quality depth. Most of these cuts are dealing with players who wouldn't start or compete many places in the league. But because they're here, and know the system, they have more value in New England than other places.
I mean, just take cornerback for example. Jalen Mills is not a No. 1 corner. Jonathan Jones is a good slot, but not a No. 2 corner. Myles Bryant is not a good slot cornerback. The rookies, Jack Jones and Marcus Jones, need more seasoning. Terrance Mitchell is a journeyman back. Shaun Wade is a backup.
So when you're talking about what to do with Mitchell and Wade, you're forcing the decision. It should be much easier at a now-premium position like cornerback. Do I think they have enough good role players to piece it together and beat most teams? Yes, because of Belichick. But don't mistake that for having talent. For that reason, if I'm Belichick, I'm selling the farm for a good cornerback to slot everyone down one spot. No idea if that player is even available.
Really, with most of these decisions, you're talking about role players. You'd ideally like to be making more talent decisions, and hopefully the last two drafts will get them there. Because the bottom line is the Patriots need more young talent. They have fallen behind the Bills and Dolphins, for sure, in the division in this regard, and possibly the Jets (whether New York can effectively coach that talent is an entirely different question).
So here is our somewhat final stab at the 53 (we reserve the right to update if we get some additional information) ... UPDATED at 10:12 p.m. on Aug. 29th:
UPDATES (10:12 P.M.)
- Ok, so I had second thoughts on Jahlani Tavai and while a few league sources completely agree that Tavai should not make the roster, there's no way William Stephen Belichick goes with three true linebackers on his roster. Plus, I realized Tavai only has three years service time so he has to go through waivers.
- It's either Tavai or Cam McGrone, and Tavai is better right now, and plays a lot of special teams. McGrone is a perfect practice squad player.
- So that means Tavai is back on and ... Lil'Jordan Humphrey is off ... for now. He does not have to go through waivers, so the Patriots can just tell him it's procedural and he's resigned as soon as they can. He replaces Tyquan Thornton.
- If Ty Montgomery has to go on IR (he might not) then Shaun Wade is my pick to be re-signed. He has go through waivers, so it's very risky. But since I already have a handshake deal with Terrance Mitchell to sign back to the practice squad (can elevate three players a week), I'm OK with risking it.
LAST FIVE OUT
DE Sam Roberts: Probably the most I'm going to regret the most, but too many bodies up there. Hoping he goes unclaimed. Unpolished but something to work with there, for sure.
TEs Matt Sokol/Devin Asiasi: Wanted to keep another tight end but the numbers don't allow. Asiasi should join Dalton Keene on the waiver wire. Sokol is much better all-around.
LB Jahlani Tavai: I wanted him off weeks ago but this is only tough because the Patriots love him, for whatever reason. He's not an NFL linebacker (special teams, yes).
CB Shaun Wade: He's fine and might get claimed, but the Patriots have to hold two spots for the rookies. I'd rather play both of them over Wade.
C Kody Russey: James Ferentz should come back to the practice squad, so that might give Russey a spot. He's OK, but you should really be able to find a guy like this every year. Not sure why you would need to keep him on the roster to protect him.
STs Cody Davis: I'm sure Belichick will find a way to keep him, but a man needs to have a limit to special teams-only players that account for a fraction of the plays they used to.
RELEASES I WANTED TO DO IF IT WAS MY 53
S Jabrill Peppers: Lacks speed and the Patriots have too many safeties. But they guaranteed a guy coming off ACL surgery $1.35 million. At least he allows you to go skinny at LB, because he's built like one.
S Brenden Schooler: You know how I feel about special teams-only guys.
OTs Justin Herron/Yodny Cajuste: Don't think either of them ever rises to solid NFL starter, so what's the point? Someone has to provide depth.
RB Pierre Strong: As opposed to Shane Vereen and James White — who definitely flashed some as rookies — it's questionable whether Strong deserves a roster spot for development. Probably does, but he hasn't flashed.
QB Bailey Zappe: Very questionable whether he develops into a possible NFL starter. Couldn't they save the roster spot and just grab guys off the street? (Eagles released Carson Strong).
WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey: Will never be an NFL starter. Considering his lack of speed, should never play for the Patriots unless the worst-case scenario strikes. Does that kind of player really need a roster spot? Another place where upside should be the priority.
What say you?